Sunday, November 27, 2011

Bowl Projections (Championship Week)

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: LSU v. Alabama
LSU is here pretty much no matter what.  Even a loss to Georgia in the SEC title game would be tough to take the Tigers out of it at this point.  Alabama won Saturday and has by far the best resume of any one loss team left on the schedule so the Tide will likely get their rematch  with the Bayou Bengals.  There are still some other possibilities though.  Oklahoma State is still alive if they beat Oklahoma (though losing to Iowa State likely killed their hopes no matter what), Virginia Tech could make a push with a convincing win over Clemson in the ACC title game, and Houston remains a possibility so long as they stay unbeaten.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin v. Oregon
This is by far the easiest BCS game to pick.  The winner of the Big Ten title game versus the winner of the Pac 12 title game.  Oregon should easily beat UCLA at Autzen and Michigan State will be hard pressed to beat the Badgers a second time in a season so this is easily the most likely scenario.

Sugar Bowl: Michigan v. Stanford
The Maize and Blue is out of the Big Ten Title game but beating Ohio State today all but makes them a lock for New Orleans.  The Sugar Bowl will get first pick of at-large teams since they will have to replace the SEC Champion Tigers.  With Alabama unavailable, Michigan, with their national reputation and large fan base, is the obvious replacement pick.  Stanford, Clemson, the Big East champion, and Virginia Tech could all theoretically end up here but with VT and the Big East champ off the board (more on that later)  the choice comes down to Clemson and Stanford.  I think it will be Stanford because of the Andrew Luck hype and the Big Ten - Pac 12 storyline.  Consider Michigan more or less locked in but the other spot is still pretty open.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v. West Virginia
The winner of the Bedlam game Saturday goes here so that part should be easy enough.  The rest is very messy.  With Michigan off the board there aren't a lot of appealing options for the Fiesta Bowl's at large spot.  Enter Big East champ West Virginia.  The Mountaineers have to win Thursday against USF, hope Cincy beats UConn, and has to be higher rated in the BCS polls to get the bid.  I think the two games will go their way and, since they are the only Big East team currently ranked in the USA Today Coaches Poll, I think they get the bid.  With the Mountaineers available, the Fiesta Bowl can nab a solid traveling fan base and get some interesting story lines with former OkState OC Dana Holgorsen going against the Cowboys.  Stanford is also a possibility here and if they get picked up the Mountaineers will likely end up facing Michigan in the Sugar Bowl. 

Orange Bowl: Houston v. Virginia Tech
The winner of the ACC title game goes here and it will either be the Hokies or Tigers.  Right now Tech is on a roll but Clemson won the previous meeting this season so this is not set in stone.  I have Houston going undefeated so that will put them here but a loss to Southern Miss on Saturday could actually put Boise State here with one loss.  The BCS would be required to take the Broncos and if that happens the Fiesta Bowl will likely jump on that grenade.  That would mean the Sugar Bowl would be free to match up the loser of the Bedlam game (in this case Oklahoma), Big East champion, or ACC runner up against Michigan and the Orange Bowl would be the ACC champion versus either the Big East champion or an at large team.

Capital One Bowl: Nebraska v. Georgia
TheCornhuskers travel as well or better than anyone else and they will be an easy pick for the Big Ten side of this game.  The SEC slot could go to either Arkansas or Georgia but the Bulldogs  won their division, are very close, and have not been in a major bowl in a long time.  Arkansas would travel decently also but after an embarrassing loss to LSU the Hogs are down right now.  If Georgia can keep the SEC title game competitive, they will get this slot easily, if not it is probably a coin flip between these two teams.

Outback Bowl: Michigan State v. South Carolina
The Spartans will surely complain about falling here but a loss in the Big Ten championship game and the fact that they aren't as big a ticket and TV draw as Nebraska means they will likely fall here.  Penn State could be here but they played at this bowl last season and if you combine that with the Sandusky scandal it makes a pretty convincing argument to take Sparty instead.  The Outback Bowl will be able to take either Carolina or Auburn from the SEC and the Gamecocks are the obvious choice since it creates a match up of two 10 win teams.

Insight Bowl: Penn State v. Kansas State
The Insight Bowl is in a unique position to take Penn State.  Their only other options are Iowa (who played there last year) and a slew of 6-6 Big Ten teams.  Also, the Big XII options are slim (KSU, Baylor, ISU, Texas A&M) so grabbing the 10 win Wildcats and the Nittany Lions means a match up of top ten teams.  The Sandusky scandal is not good but it adds TV interest to the game which KSU doesn't really bring by itself. 

Gator Bowl: Ohio State v. Auburn
I really struggled with this one but I am goign to go with this one for now.  Auburn falls here after getting jumped by Florida for the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, and Ohio State jumps Iowa by virtue of being Ohio State.  I think the Gator Bowl will jump at the chance to get the defending National Champs if they fall this far and will gladly take the Buckeyes since it is unlikely they will be available to them very often.  Be aware though that if Auburn is the SEC team there is a very good chance Iowa and Ohio State could swap bowl positioning.

Texas Bowl: Iowa v. Texas A&M
The Texas Bowl gladly snaps up the Aggies since their fan  base is only a stone's throw away from the bowl site in Houston.  Iowa fans will likely travel well to a Texas bowl and are easily the best traveling and TV friendly team left of the Big Ten bowl possibilities.  If A&M is picked higher expect Baylor to make a repeat appearance here and if Iowa is selected higher this will belong to the Buckeyes.

Ticket City Bowl: Purdue v. Iowa State
This is contingent on who is left over from the Big XII.  If it is Iowa State, then Purdue is the easy choice since both fan bases haven't been to a bowl game in a couple years and would make a  very interesting television match up.  If Missouri is the team, expect Illinois to get a look here since it would be the renewal of a major rivalry that could get at least Tiger fans excited enough to show up in solid numbers.  I think it will be the Iowa State - Purdue series but a lot of this depends on what the Pinstripe Bowl does.

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Illinois v. Northern Illinois
There is a chance Ohio could be the team here but I think Northern Illinois gets the nod as long as they win this weekend.  Illinois' 0-6 fall has angered fans but you still have to wonder how well Northwestern would travel to a game in Detroit.  If Illinois officials want to send their team to a bowl game they will lobby hard to get this spot since there is nowhere else for them to fall except the Military Bowl against a Sun Belt team.  Illinois or Northwestern may also try to work out an something with Pittsburgh to get them to come to Detroit as the opponent and Illinois may even decline a  bowl bid all together.  Consider this wide open as it is  still very tough to tell who will take this bowl bid.

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Arkansas v. Oklahoma
Arkansas falls here with Georgia going to the Capital One Bowl and they will face off against the losers of the Bedlam game on Saturday (provided that team doesn't somehow end  up in the BCS in which case this will be Texas).  I think Oklahoma ends up here but this is far from settled.  If Arkansas is selected to the Capital One expect this slot to go to either Auburn or South Carolina.

Chick Fil-A Bowl: Florida v. Clemson
Clemson ends up here as the ACC runner up (if they win it will be Virginia Tech unless one of them is selected as a BCS at large in which case this will go to either Virginia or Florida State).  Auburn is the de facto SEC team in this scenario but a rematch with Clemson wouldn't be good for TV ratings.  There is a chance that the bowl bites the bullet and takes the rematch but I think they tab the Gators to face the Tigers.

Valero Alamo Bowl: Texas v. Utah
The Alamo Bowl will gladly take the Longhorns and their local fan base over the Kansas State Wildcats.  With Stanford in the BCS the one major problem will be determining who will represent the Pac 12 against Texas.  Arizona State, Utah, Washington, and Cal are all available but I think it will be the Utes who have a fan base that will travel fairly well and are one ofthe few teams with seven wins.

Champs Sports Bowl: Notre Dame v. Florida State
This bowl pick is still the same and I think it is close to a lock.  It is  unlikely that a Big East team will pass Notre Dame here so the only issue seems to be what happens to Florida State.  Even if the Seminoles get a call from the Chick-fil-A bowl I think they try to hit the match up with the Irish in order to generate some excitement from their fans and to get a massive pay day from the bowl which should easily sell out in Orlando.

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Arizona State v. Virginia
This is sort of a "next man in pick". The Sun Bowl grabs the Sun Devils because of the proximity of their fan base and then tabs Virginia over Wake Forest since the Cavaliers have the larger fan base and have not been bowling in a while.  Both of these picks are subject to change based on what happens above them but at this point so is everything else.

Holiday Bowl: California v. Baylor
With the Bears winning against Texas Tech they will finish the season with at least a two game lead on the Aggies.  It doesn't guarantee that they won't get passed, but I think all the hype the bears are getting will put them here.  Cal gets the nod as the Pac 12 representative more because of proximity than anything else.  

Belk Bowl: North Carolina State v. Cincinnati
The Bearcats are the second team taken out of the Big East but this could also be Louisville whose fans might travel better.  North Carolina State is the local team and  they can be expected to pack the stadium so expect them to get tabbed over Georgia Tech whose fan base is very small and does not travel.  North Carolina could be an option here but they have come to this bowl quite often and they are not as high in the conference standings.  If UNC gets picked up here expect the Wolf pack to be taken in the Music City Bowl.

Music City Bowl: Vanderbilt v. Georgia Tech
The Commodores get this pick from the SEC since their fan base is in town which should help build some local interest and aid the Vandy AD in selling their ticket allotment.  North Carolina was here last year but the only other options are a Vandy-Wake Forest rematch or bringing in Georgia Tech and risking an empty stadium.  I want to say they go with North Carolina again but I have a feeling they will go with Georgia Tech on a hunch that the Tar Heel fans will not show up well to this bowl if they are invited a second time.  Right now I feel it is a coin flip between Tech and Carolina so stay tuned because this one is still very open.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Missouri v. Rutgers
Missouri and Iowa State are both left on the board and I would normally pick the Cyclones to jump the Tigers like they did in 09.  However, with Rutgers as a mortal lock to represent the Big East here, the bowl won't have to worry quite as much about selling tickets since the folks from New Jersey will likely gobble them up.  That leaves them with creating the best match up and I think that is Missouri.  If anyone other than Rutgers gets here from the Big East expect Iowa State to get a look but even then the Tigers will be hard to pass up here.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Mississippi State v. Southern Mississippi
The final SEC bowl selection will be Mississippi State and their fans will face the Conference USA runner up Golden Eagles.  Tulsa is also a popular option here but I think the fact that USM hasn't been here since 2003 and the intra-state rivalry factor will boost attendance and the match up could be more interesting on television than MSU and Tulsa.

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: North Carolina v. Air Force
A lot depends on what happens above this bowl but right now these are the two most attractive teams left from each conference.  North Carolina's fan base may be a little less likely to travel this year than they normally are with the scandal that has surrounded the program so there is a chance Wake Forest could be looked at here as well.  The Mountain West team is likely to be San Diego State, Air Force, or Wyoming but none of those teams travel particularly well.  I think the bowl goes with the ratings and picks Air Force but really any of those three are possible.

Maaco Bowl Las Vegas: Washington v. TCU
This bowl has the first choice of either TCU or Boise State if Houston gets into the BCS.  I think they grab TCU, who they won't have another shot to get in the near future, since they are the Mountain West Champions and the Broncos were here last year.  Washington is the last available Pac 12 team in this projection and gets tabbed here.

Military Bowl: Northwestern v. Wake Forest
This is the last bowl game to be filled by the ACC which pretty much locks in Wake Forest.  With no Conference USA team to fill this slot and Navy unavailable, the Military Bowl can grab an at large team and Northwestern makes a lot of sense.  The Wildcats will fall somewhere more likely than not and this is a good landing spot for them against another BCS conference school.  Illinois could also fall and if the Illini or any other Big Ten team choose to skip out on the bowl games this will likely be a MAC team.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Western Kentucky v. Western Michigan
The Sun Belt and MAC are the only two conferences with teams left so the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl isn't left with many choices.  Western Kentucky is the only team they can pick to avoid a MAC rematch and the fact that it will be the Hilltoppers first bowl appearance makes this a relatively easy choice.  Western Michigan is the best traveling MAC team left but don't count out Temple as a possibility for this slot either.

Poinsettia Bowl: Nevada v. Boise State
The Poinsettia Bowl gets Boise State and, rather than bring in conference champion Louisiana Tech, they set up a rematch of the game that kept the Broncos out of the BCS last season.  If The Las Vegas Bowl goes with Boise then TCU will end up here but I think Nevada is still the WAC pick since  Louisiana Tech would have a long way to travel and would not bring much in terms of fan appeal. 

 New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming v. Ball State
The Cowboys get the last bowl slot of the Mountain West but they will have to find an at large team to fill this slot.  At this point I only have two teams left and both are from the MAC.  Ball State takes this bid as the very last bowl eligible team to be taken.  One interesting note, I took the route of zero upsets (unintentionally) for the coming week which means that there are exactly 70 bowl eligible teams.  Unless something big happens in the Big East or UCLA or Hawaii notch upsets this week we will see every bowl eligible team playing in a  bowl game.

Armed Forces Bowl: Brigham Young v. Tulsa
BYU has already accepted this bowl bid so we know they will be here.  I think they would be glad to pick up Tulsa after the Golden Hurricanes missed being selected in the Hawaii bowl.  SMU, Marshall, and even Southern Miss are all still possibilities here.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Louisiana Tech v.SMU
The Bulldogs fall to this spot as the last available WAC team.  If Hawaii beats BYU this weekend the Warriors will be taken here and Louisiana Tech will likely be picked up by either the Poinsettia or Potato bowls since the WAC will want to guarantee that its' champion receives a bowl berth.  Tulsa and SMU are both available and both have been to this bowl in the past two years.  Tulsa was here last year so I think the Hawaii Bowl goes with SMU who drew some decent ratings last time around. 

BBVA Compass Bowl: Louisville v. Florida International
The BBVA Cimpass Bowl would love to have Louisville and I think they take the Cardinals and their fan base without hesitation if they fall this far.  The only problem is that, with no SEC team available, the bowl is required to take a Sun Belt team.  If Western Kentucky is not taken with the first two bowl selections from that conference, and I don't think they will be, the bowl will likely take whoever else is still on the board to avoid a rematch.  That will be Florida International.


Beef O'Brady's Bowl: Pittsburgh v. Marshall
Marshall and Pittsburgh are the last teams on the board from their respective conferences (barring some major upsets in the Big East) so they both fall nicely into this slot.  There could be some restructuring here so Pitt can face an at large team from a BCS conference but for right now I am  going to stick with this.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana v. Temple
No the Ragin Cajuns didn't win the Sun Belt but their proximity to the bowl and the fact that this is their first bowl  appearance make them a lock here.  The New Orleans and New Mexico Bowls will have to fight over Ball State and Temple but I think the Owls decide to come here since New Orleans is a much nicer travel destination than Albuquerque.

Go Daddy.com Bowl: Arkansas State v. Ohio
The Sun Belt champs fall here and I think the Mobile bowl scoops them up and places them opposite MAC title contender Ohio.  Two conference championship contending teams makes this a solid match up and should be an easy choice since both schools have relatively decent fan bases that should make the attendance at this game more respectable.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Toledo v. Utah State
The Aggies are close by so they are picked over conference champion Louisiana Tech in the hopes that the bowl will sell more tickets.  Toledo has a high flying offense and should make for an interesting opponent for Utah State.  There likely won't be many Rockets fans making the trip but the ratings could be decent since both teams took BCS squads down to the wire during the regular season.