Sunday, September 30, 2012

Week Six Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl


Sunday, September 23, 2012

Week 5 Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl




BCS National Championship Game: Alabama v. Oregon
Oregon mad a huge statement against Arizona and, despite their difficult schedule, I think this Ducks squad really has a chance to run the table. Alabama remains the team in the catbird seat and it is unlikely that will change until they face their first real test at Tennessee.  Even then, there doesn't appear to be a team in the SEC West that looks capable of knocking off the Tide.

Rose Bowl: Nebraska v. Stanford
I feel more confident in this pick than last week but neither team really did anything this past week.  Nebraska annihilated Idaho State and Stanford had the week off.  Still, with the Big Ten continuing to struggle and USC still not doing enough to prove they can navigate the rest of their season with only a single loss, this looks like a safe pick.
Sugar Bowl: Georgia v. Clemson
The Gators and the Bulldogs continue to impress but LSU looks like they might be in some trouble this season.  Still, the only change in this pick from last week is swapping with Notre Dame (more on that in a bit).  The Tigers lost a tough game in Tallahassee but as long as they avoid a major upset they should be able to get 10 wins and a BCS at large bid.  It is also worth noting that you should watch Ohio and Louisiana Tech as both teams look like potential BCS busters.  

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State v. Notre Dame
A huge win in Norman for the Wildcats has them back in my BCS selection and that opens the door for the Fiesta Bowl to pair them with the Irish.  We still know very little about the Big XII (KU sucks, and nobody has really been tested yet outside of KSU and OU) so this pick is certainly not set in stone.  However, given KSU's history of strong play against Texas and the fact that they get Oklahoma State at home it is hard not to see the Wildcats as having the inside track at the conference title at this point.  Notre Dame took care of business against Michigan and with the Sooners loss there doesn't appear to be a game on the schedule in which the Irish don't at least have a fair shot to win.
Orange Bowl: Florida State v. Louisville
Florida State defeated Clemson but the also gave up 400+ yards of offense to the Tigers.  That may be a problem as they still have to face Virginia Tech, Miami, and Florida.  I think the Noles drop one of those games (my guess is Florida) which puts them out of the National TItle discussion.  They should still find their way to Miami though.  Louisville is still my pick but Rutgers is still a team to watch in this race.  If the Scarlet Knights can hang on they can steal the league title when they host Louisville on the last week of the season.
Capital One Bowl: Michigan State v. Florida
No change for Sparty but next Saturday is the start of conference play in the Big Ten which could mean some pretty seismic shifts in these projections during the next couple of weeks.  I am starting to like the Gators.  They have three tests left on their schedule (LSU at home, Georgia in Jacksonville, and FSU in Tallahassee) which are all in the state of Florida and they might just be good enough to be a dark horse national title contender. 

Outback Bowl: Purdue v. Tennessee
Who else do you pick?  Michigan and Wisconsin certainly haven't looked good this year.  I think it comes down to Northwestern and Purdue but the Outback Bowl takes the Boilers who haven't been to Tampa recently and might have a better record.  On the SEC side this basically comes down to Tennessee and South Carolina.  While I think Carolina has the better team, their injury issues make me think the Vols will end up nabbing this spot.
Gator Bowl: Wisconsin v. Texas A&M
Shenanigans here as Wisconsin jumps a Northwestern team with a clearly stronger resume.  The Gator Bowl has shown in the past few years that it cares more about getting names in its' bowl game (selecting Ohio State and Michigan the past two years) than the best teams so a jump here is actually pretty likely.  The Aggies also jump a league member, Mississippi State, to get here but I think the name recognition alone will help the Gator Bowl in their quest to challenge the Outback and Capital One Bowl for ratings.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Northwestern v. West Virginia
I think the BWWs Bowl would consider selecting Michigan over Northwestern here but after a lopsided match up last year I think they try to get two teams with similar records.  Northwestern should be an 8-9 win team this year (as opposed to 6-7 wins for Michigan) and I think that makes them a reasonable choice to go against the Mountaineers.

Texas Bowl: Michigan v. TCU
The Wolverines could hardly score against Notre Dame and the Wolverines are now facing down a conference schedule that features three likely losses (Nebraska, Michigan State, Ohio State) and a slew of potential upsets.  I think this is a six win team but it wouldn't shock me if Michigan failed to even get to that point.  TCU had an impressive win over Virginia this weekend but I still don't see them going higher than this.

Ticket City Bowl: Minnesota v. Tulsa
No change here.  Six wins for the Gophers and a bowl game for the first time in years.  Tulsa is still my pick but the caveat of Conference USA manipulating the teams still applies.  This may not even be a team from Conference USA as the league looks like it might have a lot of trouble filling its bowl slots this year.


Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Western Kentucky v. Ohio
The Hilltoppers had an impressive win this weekend, beating Southern Miss 42-17.  I think they are selected as an at large Sun Belt team to face MAC champion Ohio here.  Ohio has looked good so far but the rest of the MAC has also done some solid work out of conference.  The league is likely the best of the non-AQ conferences and that depth might cost Ohio a shot at going undefeated and playing in the BCS.

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Week 4 Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl



BCS National Championship Game: Alabama v. Oregon
AJ McCarron had his hand bandaged up against Arkansas and his health is a major storyline since it would be hard to see the Tide looking quite as dominant without him.  That being said, this team is so good that they could still get to the championship game without their starting quarterback and there isn't a more impressive team in the FBS.  USC's loss to Stanford should underscore how difficult the Pac 12 is this year but the Ducks are still in autopilot mode.  The Ducks haven't been challenged yet but that will change as they host a resurgent Arizona this weekend.

Rose Bowl: Nebraska v. Stanford
USC still has to play Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, UCLA, and Notre Dame.  Expecting them to get 10 wins on that schedule is unlikely when they already have a loss.  Stanford still has Oregon, UCLA, and Notre Dame but if they win the rest of the games on their schedule and pull an upset in one of those three games then the Cardinal will be back in the BCS.  The Huskers looked bad against UCLA but they still look better than Michigan or Michigan State.  Nebraska still has a manageable conference schedule and should be just fine getting to the Rose Bowl.
Sugar Bowl: Georgia v. Notre Dame
I have a feeling Florida is going to be a test for both UGA and LSU but the Tigers get the Gators on the road in addition to a trip to Texas A&M and a home game against Alabama.  I think the Dawgs end up here but it could be Florida or LSU depending on how things fall.  The Irish still have a tough schedule remaining but with USC faltering, getting Stanford at home, and Michigan looking pretty mediocre to start the season it hardly seems unreasonable to see Notre Dame getting 10 wins which makes them an automatic BCS team. 

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma v. Clemson
The Big XII hasn't really had any games that tell us how the conference is going to play out so I am sticking with the Sooners.  Kansas State, West Virginia, and Texas all have  shot here but we really have no idea how good any of these teams are.  Notre Dame would be the at large selection if any one else is the Big XII champion but they will have to go another direction to avoid a rematch with Oklahoma.  Clemson has Sammy Watkins back but they still have to travel to Florida State next week which will be a very tough test for the Tigers.  The rest of their tough games (NCSU, GT, VT, South Carolina) are at home though and it is very easy to see the Tigers finishing 11-1.

Orange Bowl: Florida State v. Louisville
Florida State really looks like a National Title contender so far but the real test is this week against Clemson.  If the Seminoles can beat the Tigers soundly you can bet they will be showing up in the National Title game on this list next week.  Louisville had a little scare against UNC but they looked dominant early and are really the only Big East team that looks like they are at least decent.  Rutgers could challenge them but frankly the Big East shouldn't have an automatic BCS bid anyway.

Capital One Bowl: Michigan State v. LSU
The Spartans looked downright bad this week but Notre Dame is a good team.  MSU still has a shot to win their division but I think they end up settling for an 8-4 record.  Still, with Purdue and Northwestern as the other teams in this tier I think the Capital One Bowl takes a shot on MSU who will have had more national exposure.  I have LSU here but, as I have already said, this could just as easily be Georgia or Florida.

Outback Bowl: Purdue v. Florida
The Boilermakers get the next pick since they haven't had a trip to the Outback Bowl recently.  Florida is the final team off of the SEC trio of top teams because I think they have the toughest non conference game left (at Florida State).  
Gator Bowl: Northwestern v. Tennessee
For the record, I originally put Northwestern in the Rose Bowl this week.  Then I looked at their schedule.  Nebraska is going to be a loss at home and tripe to the Michigan schools in back to back weeks are probably both losses. That puts them in the same middle as Purdue and Nebraska and I think that drops them here.  Their opponent is Tennessee who, despite losing to Florida, still looks good enough to get past banged up South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. 

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Michigan v. Texas Tech
This match up hasn't changed and, while Wisconsin could very reasonably be an option here, I still think this bowl is a lock for the Wolverines.  Texas Tech has quietly done a solid job of beating teams they should beat and is a dark horse team in the Big XII.  The Red Raiders have some flaws but I think they land here after a solid season.


Texas Bowl: Wisconsin v. TCU
Wisconsin looks downright bad this year and until they find an offensive identity it is hard to see them finishing the season with a record better than 7-5.  To add insult to injury, the Texas Bowl sets them up with a Rose Bowl rematch against the Horned Frogs.  TCU looks solid but I just don't think they are good enough to break into the top half of the Big XII. 

Ticket City Bowl: Minnesota v. Tulsa
Minnesota is not a great team but they should be good enough to get six wins.  I think an excited Minnesota which hasn't been to a bowl in a few years is more attractive at this point in the selection process than a six win Iowa team with a disappointed fan base.  Tulsa remains my Conference USA selection since I think the league will want one of their stronger conference members to match up against a team from the Big Ten.

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Iowa v. Ohio
Nothing has really changed with Iowa. They are still between five and seven wins and still need to prove themselves against a good team.  The tailback injuries make the situation even shakier so there really isn't a reason to change this match up.  Ohio is one of only three undefeated non-BCS teams and looks like the favorite to win the MAC. 

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Week 3 Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl


BCS National Championship Game: Alabama v. Oregon
There really isn't a reason not to have an SEC team here at this point.  Alabama, Georgia, and LSU are head and shoulders above the rest of what is a solid but not great conference.  I really struggled with the other spot here.  The Pac 12 has several teams who could potentially be surprising including UCLA and both Arizona schools.  USC and Oregon may have trouble but at the end of the day I still think the Ducks will manage to grab a spot here.

Rose Bowl: Michigan State v. USC
With both Arizona schools and UCLA defeating BCS opponents this weekend there is a real question as to whether the Trojans have the depth to get into the BCS at large discussion.  I am leaving them here for now but don't be surprised if the Trojans fail to make the BCS.  The Big Ten is a dumpster fire and Michigan State has the most manageable schedule of the teams which could win the title.  This is essentially a guess and I am not terribly confident in the Spartans despite their selection here.
Sugar Bowl: LSU v. Kansas State
This is essentially the next team in from the SEC so either LSU or Georgia.  Kansas State gets the at large here after demolishing Miami at home.  Their schedule is favorable enough that they are a legitimate national title contender but for now I will have them falling just shy of the conference title and getting an at large BCS berth.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma v.Clemson
The Sooners are still my pick to win the Big XII but I need to see them play someone with a pulse before I put them back in the title game.  Clemson could very easily get to 10-2 this year and, if they can get a win in Tallahassee in two weeks, could even be contending for the Orange Bowl or National Title.  Barring an upset Clemson should at least be an ACC at large team if they can avoid injury.

Orange Bowl: Florida State v. Louisville
Still no change as there is no reason to believe either team won't win their league.  The one bit of intrigue here is USF who is also a popular pick to win the Big East.  The Bulls beat a good Nevada team on the road this week and are talented enough to take the Big East from the Cardinals (they could also defeat FSU on the road).  Unless USF or Clemson makes a surprise move though this match up will stay.

Capital One Bowl: Wisconsin v. Georgia
The Badgers still have enough winnable games on their schedule to end up here (the fact that Nebraska was here last year will also help).  This is game looks like it will be the Big Ten runner up against the third team from the top of the SEC (so either LSU or Georgia). 

Outback Bowl: Nebraska v. Florida
The Huskers fall here but this is still a team capable of competing for the Big Ten Championship.  If Big Red can handle road games in Columbus and East Lansing there is a good chance that they will get another try at winning in the Rose Bowl this year.  The Gators have enough talent to get here but so does South Carolina.  With Connor Shaw battling injuries and the health history of Marcus Lattimore I think the safe pick will be the Gators here.

Gator Bowl: Purdue v.Tennessee
I think the Chick-Fil-A bowl takes South Carolina instead of Mississippi State and that allows the Gator Bowl to grab the Volunteers from the SEC.  Purdue is a team being talked about as a Leaders division contender but I am still apprehensive about their four quarterback rotation.  They could end up higher than this but for now I will put them right about here.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Michigan v. Texas Tech
The Wolverines defense looks downright awful but I still think they can get at least seven wins.  The Bdubs bowl would have a hard time passing on the Michigan brand and I think they are paired with Texas Tech.  I have the Red Raiders still finishing in the middle of the Big XII but there is an outside shot that Texas could be available here, making perhaps the most watched Bdubs bowl ever.

Texas Bowl: Minnesota v. TCU
Northwestern will have a better record than Minnesota but I think the Gophers jump in here since it has been a while since they have been to a bowl game and the Wildcats were in this game last year.  They face nearby TCU who is selected over Iowa State based on their proximity.

Ticket City Bowl: Northwestern v. Tulsa
The Wildcats have a decent shot at eight wins this season and, while I don't think they will be quite that good, I think the Wildcats end up here with a solid record.  Tulsa is still my pick here from Conference USA but this is a crapshoot since the conference has a fairly nebulous bowl selection process that allows them some say in the match ups. 

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Iowa v. Ohio
I still think Iowa sits between five and seven wins so I am splitting the difference and placing the Hawkeyes at 6-6.  They are the last bowl eligible Big Ten team and I think they will play MAC runner up Ohio rather than get a rematch of their season opener against MAC champion Northern Illinois.

Monday, September 3, 2012

Week 2 Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama v. Oregon
Stat of the weekend: Alabama defeated Michigan by the same score LSU defeated North Texas.  The Crimson Tide looked dominant but more importantly the rest of the SEC (except LSU) looked pretty mediocre.  Arkansas can score but it is hard to envision them beating Bama and, while LSU could the division, I just don't think anyone else in the SEC is going to be consistent enough to topple the Tide.  Oregon's score was misleading unless you watched the game.  The Ducks let the gas off late and allowed the Red Wolves to get closer.  I still don't see anyone beating Oregon this season.