Monday, January 14, 2013

Big Ten Basketball Power Rankings: Week Three

New this year, the Big Ten basketball Power Rankings will come out once a month during the preseason (once in November and once in December) and every week during the Big Ten season. 

1. Indiana (15-1, 3-0)
The boys in the candy stripped pants are back on top this week and, frankly, it seems hard to believe they ever left this spot.  The Hoosiers played one of the most dominant first halves of basketball anyone has played all year against Minnesota and, despite a late comeback, they managed to get a major win in that game.  Wisconsin and at Northwestern are the next two on the docket for Indiana and it would be surprising if either team posed a challenge.  The Badgers have not been a great road team and Northwestern is terrible so IU should be on cruise control until the 27th when they host Michigan State. 

2. Minnesota (15-2, 3-1)
The Gophers lost to Indiana but their second half comeback in Bloomington was impressive.  Add to that a nice road victory over Illinois and the Gophers look every bit the part of a conference title contender.  Up next is Michigan at The Barn in a game that will be very telling as to whether the Gophers truly belong here. 

3. Michigan (16-1, 3-1)
Road losses don't come any tougher than the one Michigan suffered to nemesis Ohio State on Sunday.  The Wolverines had their worst offensive performance of the season in Columbus.  Even worse, Go Blue started last week with a dud against lowly Nebraska where they set what was their season low in points before they traveled to Ohio on Sunday.  Michigan looks very much like previous flawed Beilein squads that rely too heavily on the three.  Sure this team is more talented than previous iterations of this team and they are somewhat more versatile, but this week really brought into question whether the Wolverines can cut it on offense against some of the top tier defenses in the league.

4. Michigan State (14-3, 3-1)
These next four spots are pretty much up for grabs as the Spartans, Illini, Buckeyes, and Badgers have all been hit or miss.  I am putting MSU here since I had them here last week and because, even though they have been playing lower ranked teams incredibly close recently, they still seem to have the best resume of the four teams listed.  Tom Izzo's club travels to Penn State on Wednesday before coming home to face the Buckeyes which is the start of a brutal four game stretch to end the month. 

5. Ohio State (13-3, 3-1)
The Buckeyes had an impressive win at home against Michigan on Sunday.  Thad Matta gets the week off to prepare his team for their road trip to East Lansing and a win there would put the Buckeyes back into the conversation for a Big Ten title.  This team is still flawed in that DeShaun Thomas is still there only major offensive threat but the Buckeyes are playing very solid defense at home and they will be incredibly difficult to beat this season.

6. Wisconsin (12-4, 3-0)
Slowly but surely the Badgers are climbing back into the discussion of being a top tier team in the Big Ten.  They still have only played one ranked team, defeating the struggling Illini on Saturday at home, but Wisconsin is going to have plenty of opportunities to prove they belong up here in the coming weeks as the grueling mid section of their schedule continues.  Up next is are back to back road trips to Bloomington and Iowa City, the latter representing one of only two games against unranked teams the Badgers will play until late February (the other being a home date with the Hawkeyes).  A split here is probably a must given that Wisconsin probably will need some road wins against teams like Iowa to balance potential home losses against teams like Minnesota and Michigan. 

7. Illinois (14-4, 1-3)
No team had a worse week than Illinois who dropped games at home to Minnesota and at Wisconsin that will probably knock them out of the conference title discussion early.  Like Michigan this team has been over reliant on the three point shot this season but, unlike the Wolverines, Coach Groce's squad just doesn't have the skill yet to score inside with regularity when three's aren't falling.  The Illini will look to get back on track when they host in-state rival Northwestern on Thursday, their only game this week.  Northwestern is even weaker in the post than Illinois so this should be an easy win but if Illinois fails to defend the three they could be looking at potentially facing another second half collapse.

8. Iowa (12-5, 1-3)
The loss to Michigan State at home on Thursday was frustrating as Iowa was without star player Devyn Marble and still came within three of the Spartans.  However, Sunday's annihilation of Northwestern was a breath of fresh air which showed the Hawkeyes are still a dangerous team.  They get the week off before hosting Wisconsin and then going back on the road to Ohio State and Purdue.  A 1-2 split in this part of the schedule is likely (the difficulty in Iowa's schedule doesn't really ease up until February) but more would be big for the Hawks who need to find some big wins to start building an NCAA tournament resume.

9. Purdue (8-8, 2-2)
Not much has changed with Purdue since the last version of these rankings.  They soundly beat a terrible Penn State team at home and will travel to Nebraska for a sneaky tough road trip on Wednesday before hosting West Virginia on Saturday.  The schedule is back-loaded with ranked teams including six games against the top three teams in these rankings.  Unless the Boilers get some major upsets and manage to win some of their road trips to schools like Iowa and Wisconsin this team is not going to be able to have a shot at a postseason tournament of any kind.

10. Nebraska (9-8, 0-4)
This might come as a shock but Nebraska has quietly been playing very well recently.  Their four conference losses have come against Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan with only one of those games (Wisconsin) being in Lincoln and only one of the games (Ohio State) wasn't at least somewhat close.  The Huskers get Purdue at home on Wednesday before traveling to State College.  I am betting that Nebraska can sweep those two games.  In fact, with Illinois and Northwestern at home the following week, there is a solid chance Big Red could manage a four game winning streak before traveling to Minneapolis on the 29th. 

11. Northwestern (10-7, 1-3)
Don't let the record fool you, the Wildcats lone conference win came against moribund Penn State and their 20 point home loss to Iowa was far worse than anything Nebraska has done in conference.  Northwestern was dominated in the paint by Iowa and the three pointers were just not falling.  Bill Carmody's M.O. since he got to Evanston has been ball control and efficient shooting, but when teams are dominating you in the paint and getting easy dunks and layups you can't rely on three point shooting night in and night out.  Northwestern's defense was terrible Sunday and if Carmody wants to save his job he had better get it figured out soon as the Cats play Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota in their next three games.

12. Penn State (8-8, 0-4)
The long march of the season continues on for Penn State.  This team got blown out at home by Northwestern last week and then fell by 18 at Purdue.   There really doesn't appear to be any redeeming characteristic to this Penn State team and at this point it would be surprising if they managed more than one or two conference wins if they get any at all.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Big Ten Conference Power Rankings: Week Two

New this year, the Big Ten basketball Power Rankings will come out once a month during the preseason (once in November and once in December) and every week during the Big Ten season. 

1. Michigan (15-0, 2-0)
Go Blue knocked off Northwestern and Iowa in spectacular fashion to start off conference play.  While neither team is ranked or a conference title contender, double digit domination is going to be rare in this league and getting two in a row (including one on the road) is huge for the Wolverine's start to the season.  The Wolverines host Nebraska before back-to-back road tilts against Ohio State and Minnesota in the coming weeks.  Those road games will be the first true road games Michigan has played all season and will be against the highest ranked teams the Wolverines have faced to date so we should have a much clearer picture of whether this spot is deserved in a week and a half.

2. Indiana (14-1, 2-0)
The Hoosiers knocked off Iowa and Penn State in consecutive road contests to begin conference play and will face Minnesota and Wisconsin in Assembly Hall during the coming week.  Statistically this team has been dominant with the top ranked scoring offense in college basketball and top 12 spots in both rebounds and assists per game.  This team is still very deep but, until the ranked teams start playing more games against each other, it is difficult to determine who really deserves to be slotted where.

3. Minnesota (14-1, 2-0)
The Gophers managed solid wins against the Spartans and Wildcats, both in Minneapolis, over the past week which solidifies their placement here.  I was hesitant to put them here last week but Minnesota has so far proven that it has the capability to back up its strong non-conference numbers during Big Ten play.  Up next for the maroon and gold is a major test with two road contests to Illinois and Indiana with a home date against Michigan waiting for them when they return.  This stretch won't necessarily determine the Gophers season as an 0-3 mark could be overcome but if the Gophers can nab a win or two they will cement their place in this spot and maybe even move higher in these rankings.

4. Michigan State (12-3, 1-1)
I am still not ready to drop Michigan State from this spot.  Tom Izzo's squad ran into a buzz saw in Minneapolis to kick off Big Ten play and then used a second half surge to defeat Purdue by 23 in Lansing.  The Spartans are going to have some growing pains but they are still a very tough and very dangerous team to face.  Up next is a road trip to Iowa before dates against Nebraska and Penn State.  MSU needs a 3-0 mark in that stretch to move up in the rankings and contend for a Big Ten title.

5. Illinois (14-2, 1-1)
Illinois lost a head scratching game to Purdue before pouring it on Ohio State in Chambana.  Tonight they host the Gophers and then follow that up with games at Wisconsin and at home against Northwestern.  Winning tonight is a must if the Illini are going to get back into the conference title discussion and they probably can't afford a loss to Wisconsin or Northwestern in those upcoming games either as the Illini have a brutal stretch in the schedule late in the season.


6. Ohio State (12-3, 2-1)
Thad Matta's club beat down Nebraska before being thumped by the Illini, but they rebounded nicely last night against Purdue in a tricky road game.  Still, this team has fewer top 100 wins than Iowa and channels their entire offense through one player, Deshaun Thomas so I remain reluctant to put them any higher than this at this juncture.  The Buckeyes have games at Penn State, v. Wisconsin, and at Nebraska coming down the pipe so there really aren't any opportunities to make a statement that they deserve to be higher in these rankings in the next few weeks.  This should be an easy 3-0 stretch and anything less by Ohio State will probably move them out of the top six.

7. Wisconsin (11-4, 2-0)
The Badgers took care of business against Penn State and Nebraska to open their Big Ten slate and now face Illinois at home before road games against Indiana and Iowa.  In fact, outside of two games against the Hawkeyes, Wisconsin will not play a team that not currently ranked again until February 20th when they travel to Northwestern.  This stretch will determine the course of the season for the fighting Bo Ryan's.  For now though, the Badgers have earned this bump up in the rankings.

8. Iowa (11-4, 0-2)
Iowa opened Big Ten play with consecutive losses to Indiana and Michigan.  Both of those are forgivable considering how good those teams are (and Iowa was at least competitive against IU at home), however it underscores how important it will be for the Hawkeyes to get some wins in conference play sooner rather than later to avoid having to dig themselves out of a massive hole to get into NCAA tournament consideration.  The Hawks host Michigan State tomorrow before traveling to Northwestern and coming back home to face Wisconsin.  A 3-0 run in that stretch would be ideal but even a 2-1 split would be acceptable for this Iowa squad which is just trying to get something going to start off the season.


9. Purdue (7-8, 1-2)
Yes the Boilermakers are on a two game skid with losses to Michigan State and Ohio State in addition to being back under .500 but Purdue is dangerous, as shown by their defeat of Illinois to kick off Big Ten play.  This is not an NCAA tournament team, but these guys will play the role of spoilermakers for the rest of the season.  The Boilers have games against Penn State, Nebraska, and West Virginia up next and it isn't unreasonable to see the Matt Painter's team going 3-0 in that stretch. 

10. Northwestern (9-6, 0-2)
The Wildcats dropped double digit games to Michigan and Minnesota to kick off their Big Ten slate and they will travel to State College to take on the Nittany Lions before coming home to play Iowa.  Northwestern's injury woes were documented well in the last edition of these rankings and it is worth mentioning that this team just looks like it is two guys away from being a complete team.  This team is going to struggle to find consistency all season but they should still not be considered a given win on the road for anyone, particularly teams outside the top six.


11. Nebraska (9-6, 0-2)
The Cornhuskers were demolished by Ohio State on the road and then passed over by Wisconsin in Lincoln to open conference play.  The schedule doesn't get any easier with a two game road stint to take on the Michigan schools before coming home to face a dangerous Purdue squad.  Tim Miles' club probably isn't going to be upsetting anyone on the road in the Big Ten this season but they should manage to at least stay competitive at home as they did in their last game against Wisconsin.  I think they have a little more potential for some home upsets than Penn State which is why I have them here but neither team is going to be doing much in the postseason.

12. Penn State (8-6, 0-2)
Tim Frazier's club dropped games at Wisconsin and at home against Indiana to kick off their conference schedule.  Next up on the docket are home dates against Northwestern and Michigan State sandwhiched around a road trip to Purdue.  This team is still reeling from the loss of Tim Frazier as they only scored 51 points in each of their Big Ten games and are ranked only 268th nationally in ppg.  Even worse, they are 335th nationally in assists per game and 290th in field goal percentage.  Those numbers are not going to get it done in the Big Ten and this team is probably going to lose a lot of games this season.