Preseason Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship

2) National Championship

3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick

4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick

5) Fiesta Bowl

6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Oregon v. Oklahoma

The SEC is too muddled at the top to produce an undefeated champion and I don't have anyone higher than 10-2 in the league.  Oklahoma is head and shoulders above the Big XII provided they avoid an upset loss to WVU or Texas.  Oregon likewise has a favorable road schedule and has far more depth than PAC 12 contender USC who I think will stumble late.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin v. USC

The Badgers are almost a layup to get to the Big Ten title game and I think they avenge an early loss to Nebraska to put them here.  Southern Cal is a trendy title 

Sugar Bowl: LSU v. Nebraska

LSU wins the SEC but misses out on the national title after losses to Auburn and Arkansas on the road.  They settle for a matchup against Big Ten runner up Nebraska and former DC Bo Pelini.  The Huskers just sneak in after their loss to Wisconsin in Indy but a double digit win season keeps them ahead of nine win Texas.

Fiesta Bowl: Alabama v. Notre Dame

The Fiesta Bowl is in the catbird seat with two of the first three at large selections and Bama, Notre Dame, USC, and Georgia all available.  In the end I think they pick Bama first, allowing the Rose to replace Oregon with USC and then grab the Irish to make a television producers wet dream of a matchup.

Orange Bowl: Florida State v. Louisville

I like what Jimbo Fisher is building in Tallahassee but this team just has too many question marks in the trenches for me to think they will go.undefeated which is what they will need to stay high in the polls given their weak schedule.  Big East champion Louisville rounds out the BCS teams but Cincinnati and USF could land here as well.

Capital One Bowl: Michigan v. Georgia

The Capital One Bowl has an easy selection with 8-4 Michigan and 10-3 Georgia both sitting there and can pencil in a pretty great matchup.  Georgia falls in the SEC title game to LSU again and is passed over in at large selection in favor of the Crimson Tide.  Michigan, by virtue of head to head wins over Iowa and MSU, gets the Big Ten spot here.

Outback Bowl: Iowa v. South Carolina

Some mild shenanigans here as Iowa passes an MSU team that they lost to during the regular season and which had a better conference record than the hawks.  Still, MSU was in Tampa last year, have been in Florida for bowls the last couple of years, and Iowa is notorious for packing the stands at Raymond James.  South Carolina is the next SEC East team in after another solid year creating a rematch of the 2009 Outback Bowl.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Minnesota v. Kansas State

This isn't a jump since the Gator Bowl actually picks before this bowl.  Minnesota gets the top slot of the three 6-6 teams and returns to a bowl game which they frequented under Glen Mason.  Kansas State fans might be a little disappointed in an 8-4 season but another win over Texas and another dominating performance against in state rival KU should ease the pain.

Gator Bowl: Michigan State v. Tennessee

The Spartans disappoint with an 8-4 record but get perhaps the Big Ten's least lopsided matchup.  The Vols manage a surprising 8-4 season which saves Coach Dooley for another season and vaults Tennessee past Missouri and Florida in the bowl pecking order.

Texas Bowl: Illinois v. TCU

The Illini return to Reliant Stadium under first year Head Coach Tim Beckmann.  

Some controversy here as Illinois passes a Northwestern team which it lost to in the final week of the season but the Wildcats were here last year and I doubt their fans will mind a more manageable bowl opponent.  TCU struggles to a 7-5 inaugural Big XII campaign 

but their proximity makes them a more ideal selection than fellow newcomer West Virginia.

Ticket City Bowl: Northwestern v. Tulsa

The Wildcats are the last of the .500 teams taken despite a better conference record and wins over both of the other 6-6 teams.  Northwestern will face Tulsa, the Conference USA West champion which fell to East Carolina in the championship game.

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Ohio v. Utah State

The Bobcats take their first conference title since 1968 and are rewarded with a trip to Detroit.  With no Big Ten team available the bowl tabs MWC at large team Utah State who is looking for an at large spot after a 7-5 season.

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Auburn v. Texas

The Tigers manage a surprising 9-3 record including wins over LSU and Arkansas.  The Longhorns look like a shoe in for a BCS at large bid until late season losses in Manhattan and Lubbock drop the Horns to 9-3.  The Cotton Bowl makes an easy choice with Auburn over an Arkansas team they hosted last year and nearby powerhouse Texas.

Chick Fil-A Bowl: Arkansas v. Virginia Tech

The Hokies finish as the ACC runner up again but this time fail to nab an ACC at large berth.  They fall to the Chick Fil-A Bowl which is more than happy to pair them with an Arkansas team fresh off a home upset of LSU.  

Valero Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State v. Utah

The Utes jump Stanford here because of their fan base and an attempt to avoid a rematch of last year's Fiesta Bowl.  Oklahoma State finishes a respectable 9-3 but no wins over major programs like OU or Texas which keeps them out of the BCS discussion.

Russell Athletics Bowl: South Florida v. Clemson

The Bulls narrowly miss a shot at a BCS bid but manage a solid bowl bid in nearby Orlando.  Clemson's 9-3 record will likely disappoint fans hoping for an ACC title repeat but the upshot is a bowl game where they are far less likely to get embarrassed like last year.

Hyundai Sun Bowl: UCLA v. North Carolina State

The Bruins manage a solid season and earn a trip to El Paso as the fifth Pac 12 team selected.  North Carolina State leads a clog in the middle of the ACC but I am assuming that the WolfPack get the nod because of their solid fan base which is more likely to travel to this game than their counterparts from Chapel Hill.

Holiday Bowl: Stanford v. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are the most experienced team in the Big XII and could make a splash in the conference this season.  I am optimistic about Tech's chances but am wary of the coaching staff and their propensity for blowing winnable games (see Iowa State in Lubbock).  Stanford gets passed over by the Alamo Bowl but the closer San Diego bowl will gladly take the Cardinal whose fans won't have to travel terribly far.

Belk Bowl: North Carolina v. Cincinnati

Carolina is close by and, despite the fact that they have attended more than their fair share of bowl games in Charlotte, should draw better than any of the other ACC selections that will be available here.  Cincinnati is head and shoulders above the rest of the untaken Big East bowl teams so they fill in the other spot here.

Music City Bowl: Florida v. Georgia Tech

Even with the Commodores available I think the Music City Bowl takes Florida as their SEC representative because of their larger fan base and better overall record.  Georgia Tech does not travel particularly well but they should more than make up for it in TV ratings where they are usually a decent draw, making them a solid choice to face the Gators.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: West Virginia v. Pittsburgh

No the Mountaineers aren't going to be happy about falling this far down the bowl pecking order but the potential for a game against longtime rival Pitt will more than make up for it.  The Pinstripe Bowl will make it happen, passing over local Syracuse for the Panthers.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Mississippi State v. East Carolina

I have the Pirates winning the Conference USA title and earning a trip to Memphis to face the Bulldogs.  Vanderbilt could be an option here but I don't think it will happen since they were here last year and the Bulldogs generally bring a pretty strong traveling fan base.

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: Virginia v. Wyoming

A very intriguing game here as the Cavaliers manage a 7-5 record and head to their second straight bowl game under Mike London.  The Cowboys look poised for a great season with dual threat QB Brett Smith running the offense.  Some even have the Cowboys as a dark horse conference title contender but I think they land here after finishing third in the conference.

Maaco Bowl Las Vegas: California v. Boise State

I don't trust this Boise State team to go undefeated (though I do think they are the favorite for their opening week tilt against Michigan State).  This season is really going to test the Broncos young depth and I think they stumble somewhere (possibly Nevada or Wyoming) to end up in Las Vegas for a third straight year.  They square off against Cal who manages to sneak into a bowl game at 6-6.

Millitary Bowl: Boston College v. Toledo

The Eagles take the last of the ACC's bowl bids with a 6-6 record.  The Eagles face off against Toledo who is the fourth MAC team selected for a bowl game.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Navy v. Arizona

The Midshipmen make it to a bowl game after missing the post season last year.  Their opponent is the 6-6 Arizona Wildcats, the last team taken out of the Pac 12.  This was a tough call as I think Oregon State and Washington are both better teams, but I just can't see either of them getting six wins.  Arizona has enough play makers on offense  to make the first year under Rich Rodriguez successful and I think they play well enough to upset a few teams and get to six wins.

Poinsettia Bowl: BYU v. Nevada

The Wolfpack are the second place team in the Mountain West and the Poinsettia Bowl selects them to face the bowl eligible BYU Cougars.  BYU slides in here with a 7-5 record.

New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State v. Bowling Green

Fresno State falls here after being passed over by the Armed Forces Bowl.  The New Mexico Bowl is ecstatic to see them available and pairs the Bulldogs with 7-5 Bowling Green who will be looking for an at large bid after a 7-5 season in the MAC.

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force v. SMU
The Armed Forces Bowl lands a pretty good game but does so by passing on a few good teams.  The selection of Air Force is purely political as the Fresno State Bulldogs are available with a better record.  Still, the 6-6 Falcons are a much more even match with the 6-6 Mustangs who the bowl takes over Tulsa since they don't want to host the same team twice

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii v. Houston

The Hawaii Bowl is obligated to take the Warriors who sneak in at 6-6.  Houston has been here recently but there aren't many teams who travel well to Hawaii anyway and the bowl game is more concerned about TV ratings than attendance with the hometown team already there.  They tab Houston over a few other WAC, MAC, and Conference USA teams because the Cougars are the biggest draw available.

BBVA Compass Bowl: Vanderbilt v. Rutgers

Vanderbilt sneaks in with six wins as the last bowl elidgbile team and the Compass Bowl has either Rutgers or Syracuse to match against them.  Neither team is known for traveling well so I think the Commodores get the better on the field match up with Rutgers who will more than likely have the top defense in the Big East this season.

Beef O'Brady's Bowl: Southern Miss v. Syracuse
Syracuse is the last Big East team available and they are tabbed to end their season in St. Pete.  Southern Miss dips a bit to 8-4 but they have a large fan base that would be happy to face a BCS conference team again.  They get placed here despite playing in this game fairly recently. 

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana v. Marshall

The Ragin Cajuns win the Sun Belt title just a year after their first ever bowl appearance and bowl victory.  There aren't many teams capable of challenging them at the top so despite their personnel losses I am going out on a limb and putting them here even though they were here last year.  Marshall is the last Conference USA team selected at 6-6 and I think they land here.

Go Daddy.com Bowl: Western Michigan v. Florida International

It comes down to Arkansas State and Florida International for the Sun Belt tie in for this game and I think the Golden Panthers get selected since the Red Wolves were here last year.  Western Michigan is the opponent here making it an interesting match between two conference runner ups.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois v. Louisiana Tech
The Potato Bowl manages a surprise steal at this position with NIU and Louisiana Tech both still available.  The WAC champions may be reluctant to travel up to Idaho for a bowl game but considering the opponent this is better than playing a Sun Belt team.  Northern Illinois loses a tie breaker to Western Michigan for the MAC title game at 8-4 landing them here.