Week 3 Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama v. Oregon

There really isn't a reason not to have an SEC team here at this point.  Alabama, Georgia, and LSU are head and shoulders above the rest of what is a solid but not great conference.  I really struggled with the other spot here.  The Pac 12 has several teams who could potentially be surprising including UCLA and both Arizona schools.  USC and Oregon may have trouble but at the end of the day I still think the Ducks will manage to grab a spot here.

Rose Bowl: Michigan State v. USC

With both Arizona schools and UCLA defeating BCS opponents this weekend there is a real question as to whether the Trojans have the depth to get into the BCS at large discussion.  I am leaving them here for now but don't be surprised if the Trojans fail to make the BCS.  The Big Ten is a dumpster fire and Michigan State has the most manageable schedule of the teams which could win the title.  This is essentially a guess and I am not terribly confident in the Spartans despite their selection here.

Sugar Bowl: LSU v. Kansas State

This is essentially the next team in from the SEC so either LSU or Georgia.  Kansas State gets the at large here after demolishing Miami at home.  Their schedule is favorable enough that they are a legitimate national title contender but for now I will have them falling just shy of the conference title and getting an at large BCS berth.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma v.Clemson

The Sooners are still my pick to win the Big XII but I need to see them play someone with a pulse before I put them back in the title game.  Clemson could very easily get to 10-2 this year and, if they can get a win in Tallahassee in two weeks, could even be contending for the Orange Bowl or National Title.  Barring an upset Clemson should at least be an ACC at large team if they can avoid injury.

Orange Bowl: Florida State v. Louisville

Still no change as there is no reason to believe either team won't win their league.  The one bit of intrigue here is USF who is also a popular pick to win the Big East.  The Bulls beat a good Nevada team on the road this week and are talented enough to take the Big East from the Cardinals (they could also defeat FSU on the road).  Unless USF or Clemson makes a surprise move though this match up will stay.

Capital One Bowl: Wisconsin v. Georgia

The Badgers still have enough winnable games on their schedule to end up here (the fact that Nebraska was here last year will also help).  This is game looks like it will be the Big Ten runner up against the third team from the top of the SEC (so either LSU or Georgia). 

Outback Bowl: Nebraska v. Florida

The Huskers fall here but this is still a team capable of competing for the Big Ten Championship.  If Big Red can handle road games in Columbus and East Lansing there is a good chance that they will get another try at winning in the Rose Bowl this year.  The Gators have enough talent to get here but so does South Carolina.  With Connor Shaw battling injuries and the health history of Marcus Lattimore I think the safe pick will be the Gators here.

Gator Bowl: Purdue v.Tennessee

I think the Chick-Fil-A bowl takes South Carolina instead of Mississippi State and that allows the Gator Bowl to grab the Volunteers from the SEC.  Purdue is a team being talked about as a Leaders division contender but I am still apprehensive about their four quarterback rotation.  They could end up higher than this but for now I will put them right about here.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Michigan v. Texas Tech

The Wolverines defense looks downright awful but I still think they can get at least seven wins.  The Bdubs bowl would have a hard time passing on the Michigan brand and I think they are paired with Texas Tech.  I have the Red Raiders still finishing in the middle of the Big XII but there is an outside shot that Texas could be available here, making perhaps the most watched Bdubs bowl ever.

Texas Bowl: Minnesota v. TCU

Northwestern will have a better record than Minnesota but I think the Gophers jump in here since it has been a while since they have been to a bowl game and the Wildcats were in this game last year.  They face nearby TCU who is selected over Iowa State based on their proximity.

Ticket City Bowl: Northwestern v. Tulsa

The Wildcats have a decent shot at eight wins this season and, while I don't think they will be quite that good, I think the Wildcats end up here with a solid record.  Tulsa is still my pick here from Conference USA but this is a crapshoot since the conference has a fairly nebulous bowl selection process that allows them some say in the match ups. 

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Iowa v. Ohio

I still think Iowa sits between five and seven wins so I am splitting the difference and placing the Hawkeyes at 6-6.  They are the last bowl eligible Big Ten team and I think they will play MAC runner up Ohio rather than get a rematch of their season opener against MAC champion Northern Illinois.