Week Eight Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama v. Oregon

This hasn't changed since week two.  Everyone else continues to fall around them but these two teams remain unbeaten (Oregon did have a bye this week but still).  Alabama has looked untouchable and, by virtue of avoiding everyone with a pulse from the SEC East, they only have two difficult SEC games (Mississippi State and LSU).  Still, this team looks more than capable of winning those games.

Rose Bowl: Nebraska v. Notre Dame

Well we know this isn't Michigan State.  I am sticking with Nebraska for now but this spot will belong to Michigan if the Wolverines  can beat Sparty next week.  Notre Dame still looks like a BCS bowl team and I still don't see a second BCS team from the Pac 12 so they will stay here.

 

Sugar Bowl: Florida v. Oklahoma

The Gators remain unbeaten but they host South Carolina this week and the winner of that game is more than likely going to represent the SEC East in Atlanta and, presuming Alabama wins that game, will end up here.  The Big XII is a mess but Oklahoma's only loss was to a Kansas State team that I think will win the conference.  The Sooners have tough games in Morgantown and at home versus Notre Dame but I think they should at least split those and get to 10 wins. 

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State v. Clemson

Kansas State has a rough trip to West Virginia this week but I still think they will end the season as conference champs.  Clemson was off this week but the ACC schedule looks very winnable.  They cannot afford another conference loss this season with South Carolina looming but, as I have said previously, the rest of their difficult games are all at home.

 

Orange Bowl: Florida State v. Louisville

This hasn't changed since week one and it certainly isn't going to change now.  The Seminoles have an intriguing road trip to Miami this week but, like Clemson, I really don't see Florida State losing another ACC game.  Louisville defeated Pitt on Saturday and they get Cincinnati in two weeks so there is still quite a bit more to learn about this team but so far they are looking as advertised. 

 

Capital One Bowl: Michigan v. LSU

It wouldn't take much for someone to convince me to switch the Wolverines and Huskers but I want to see Michigan beat a team with a live defense before I move them.  LSU and Georgia are both possibilities here but I think the Tigers get the nod since they could potentially only have losses to the SEC championship game participants.

Outback Bowl: Wisconsin v. South Carolina

The Badgers are headed to Indianapolis but I am not ready to consider them a Pasadena contender just yet.  South Carolina gets the nod over Georgia who was here last year by virtue of their victory over the Bulldogs.

 

Gator Bowl: Northwestern v. Georgia

The Wildcats still are a bit of an enigma.  A win over Nebraska this weekend would put them in prime position to compete for the conference title but I still think this team will struggle against the Huskers and the two Michigan schools.  Still, if they can avoid an upset this is an eight win ball club.  I have Texas A&M heading to the Chick-fil-A bowl which would send Georgia to the Gator Bowl.  If not, the bowl reps here will have to chose between the Aggies and Mississippi State.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Michigan State v. Texas Tech
A big fall for Sparty but it could be worse.if the alternative to them was a third visit from the Hawkeyes.  Michigan State is still a dangerous team and they pose a serious threat to Michigan and Nebraska but with two conference losses plus the aforementioned games and a trip to Madison still on the docket this team is out of the conference race.  Texas Tech had a nice win over West VIrginia but I don't trust this team to be consistent enough to finish higher than this.

Texas Bowl: Iowa v. TCU

TCU is still my team here from the Big XII and I think they are a pretty solid lock.  Iowa jumps back into these rankings after upsetting Michigan State but this team still has me on edge.  The offense still has not clicked and Penn State and Purdue are must wins at home if the Hawkeyes hope to get bowl eligible.  Indiana has played very tough at home against Michigan State and Ohio State plus Northwestern has been an Iowa bugaboo for the past few years.  Michigan and Nebraska could be wins but neither is likely.  Right now I think this is a six win team unless their passing offense starts to click.

Ticket City Bowl: Indiana v. Tulsa

The Hoosiers play at Navy, at Illinois, Iowa, at Penn State, Wisconsin and at Purdue and I think those are all winnable games.  If the Hoosier offense plays as well as it did in the opening of Big Ten play then IU has a shot to get to its first bowl game since 2007.  I am drinking out of the Indiana mug this week but their margin for error is very slim.  They can only lose two of those games and it is worth noting the Hoosiers have never beaten Penn State and have dropped seven straight to the Badgers.  If the Hoosiers can't get it done on the road they will be in a lot of trouble.

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Minnesota v. Ohio

Minnesota lost this week but I still think the Gophers can manage wins at home against Purdue and on the road against Illinois to get to six wins.  However, if they have to rely on Max Shortell the rest of the way they may be in trouble.  The Gophers need MarQuies Gray to get healthy if they want to ensure a bowl game at the end of this season.