Every
week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will
include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include
all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl
7) Orange Bowl
BCS National Championship Game: Kansas State v. Oregon
Yeah you read it right. KSU doesn't look like they will be challenged from here on out with the rest of their games coming against the middle and lower half of the conference. Oregon has USC next week but I think they can come out of the Coliseum with a W and from then on the only rough game is a road trip to Corvallis where they face their in state rivals.
Rose Bowl: Nebraska v. Oregon State The Huskers are the in the front seat for the trip to the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis and, while there are still challenges ahead for Huskers (next week's trip to East Lansing being a prime example), they have to be the front runner for the conferences' Rose Bowl bid. I have struggled with the Beavers all year. I am near certain they are a 9-3 team, but so was 2007 Illinois and they got in the Rose Bowl anyway. At the end of the day it comes down to what at-large teams are also available and I think the Rose committee goes with the traditional Big Ten-Pac12 match up. I am not very confident on this at all.
Sugar Bowl: Georgia v. Oklahoma
The Bulldogs face the LSU Tigers in the SEC Championship Game and I have them winning that contest. That puts the conference in a tough spot with this bowl bid since they obviously aren't going to get Alabama or Notre Dame. Barring a loss to West Virginia the Sooners should end up here (if the Mountaineers win then they will be here).
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame v. Alabama
With the first replacement pick for the National Championship Game the selection committee tabs the Irish. As good as they looked last night I still don't see them finishing undefeated but they should still be in the BCS at the end of the year. The Fiesta Bowl also has the first at large selection and with it they nab the Crimson Tide. If the Rose Bowl doesn't go with Oregon State and takes Bama then this is probably going to be Clemson and Oklahoma would face Georgia in the Sugar Bowl (If the Rose nabs Oklahoma then the Sugar Bowl would feature Clemson). Just throwing this out there, I had this as my Fiesta Bowl in the preseason.
Orange Bowl: Florida State v. Louisville
Even if the Cardinals do manage to go undefeated I don't see them ending up in the National Title game. If Louisville does go unbeaten they will more likely be taken by the Sugar Bowl where they will face the SEC champion but I think they will drop one somewhere and end up where I have had them all year. Florida State is just sitting here waiting for teams to fall around them. I just don't see it happening and the Noles get a consolation prize with a BCS bowl game in their rival's home stadium.
Capital One Bowl: Michigan v.LSU
I generally avoid picking teams to go to the same bowl game twice in a row but Nebraska in this situation is an obvious exception to the rule. The Huskers will travel well to the same bowl game two years in a row and are the obvious no. 2 of the Bowl eligible teams. The Tigers loss in the SEC title game knocks them out of the BCS but the Capital One Bowl is more than happy to pick up the Tigers and their Cajun fans who have given this bowl game two of its most classic contests.
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin v. Florida
Gator Bowl: Northwestern v. South Carolina
Northwestern is the obvious last man standing (unless they get picked up by the Outback Bowl) of the non 6-6 Big Ten teams and South Carolina is clearly ahead of alternate selections Ole Miss and Tennessee (check out my explanation of the Chick-Fil-A bowl to see why I don't have Texas A&M here). This is probably a mismatch on paper but this could potentially be a pretty high scoring bowl game.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Michigan State v. West Virginia
The Mountaineers are sort of the obvious selection here with Texas and Texas Tech both going ahead of them in the bowl selection order. This might actually be a sneaky good bowl game as Dana Holgerson's squad faces a legit defense and the Spartans take on a beatable WVU squad with time to prepare. Possible echoes of the 2009 Alamo Bowl where the Spartans had a shootout with Texas Tech.
I don't think Conference USA will fill this bowl and that leaves it ope to an at-large selection. Louisiana Tech will want a game against a BCS conference team and this (or the Liberty Bowl) would be their best opportunity. No the Gophers at 6-6 aren't a high cache team, but this bowl game drew a lot of headlines with the Penn State-Houston tilt last year and they might try to replicate that success with these two teams.
Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl:Toledo v. San Jose State
Toledo is selected here as the MAC Champion and the Spartans are the at large selection out of the WAC. San Jose State is going to be the least popular team in the at large pool given the fact that most of the bowl games needing at large teams are in the Southeast and the Spartans have about as little television and attendance drawing potential that a school can have. I think that lands them here.
AT&T Cotton Bowl: Mississippi State v. Texas Tech
I have Tommy Tuberville's squad beatign the Longhorns in Lubbock, earning them the third place spot in the Big XII's bowl selection order. That matches them up against the Bulldogs who finish third in the SEC West. While this isn't the big name match up that this bowl normally gets, this is a pretty even game with plenty of story lines and two teams who will likely be ranked coming in. Texas is a possibility here if they finish strong and win in Lubbock but I haven't seen anything this year that suggests that will happen.
Chick Fil-A Bowl: Texas A&M v. Clemson
A little chicanery here but follow me on this. Clemson is the clear cut ACC team here (Miami is possible but you would really rather have a team that will bring fans). South Carolina finishes at 10-2 with their last game being in Clemson so you don't want them to play again. Meanwhile the Gator Bowl below you doesn't want a rematch of the Northwestern-Texas A&M match up from last years Texas Bowl. The solution for both bowls is simple, swap SEC teams. The Aggies and the Tigers is a great New Year's eve match up and would be a great get for the folks in Atlanta.
Valero Alamo Bowl: Texas v. USC
The winners of best name match up have to be the people from the Alamo Bowl who draw two of the biggest name programs in the game. USC is chosen over Oregon State, Arizona, and Stanford who have similar or better records and Texas completes the rematch of the 2005 national title game by being selected over West Virginia and Oklahoma State who have similar records.
I have Miami and North Carolina State with almost identical records and, while this presupposes Miami will be able to go to a bowl game, I think the Hurricanes are the pick. Miami has sent a solid contingent to this game in the past and the Wolfpack have been here the most recently. Rutgers is the de facto next team in from the Big East but Cincinnati is also a possibility depending on how things shake out.
This is a very close call between UCLA and Stanford. I think it comes down to the fact that Oklahoma State is the Big XII team here and the bowl will want a match up that people didn't just see last year. This is really a toss up between UCLA, Stanford, and Oregon State for me but I think the Bruins are the most likely selection considering their recent history without a bowl game and the fact that they provide a "new" match up.
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Stanford v. North Carolina State
See my explanation for the Holiday Bowl to see how I ended up with Stanford here. Ditto for the Russell Athletics Bowl and North Carolina State. Other teams we could see here (besides UCLA and Miami) include Duke, Virginia Tech, Oregon State, Arizona, and Arizona State but I think this is pretty much locked in with the contingencies above.
Belk Bowl: Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati
The Hokies have had a disappointing season thus far and I think they finish here in the bowl pecking order. They are picked over Duke since they will bring more people to the game and will be a bigger television draw (in all honesty, there is a part of me that thinks Duke could end up here with their local fans, but I just don't see it happening realistically). Cincinnati is the next team in from the Big East and is pretty much a no brainer selection.
Music City Bowl: Vanderbilt v. Duke
With Duke the only remaining choice from the ACC you are stuck with either a lopsided looking match up with Tennessee, a ho hum game against Ole Miss, or Vanderbilt, which at least has some marketability and a local fan base that can absorb some of the loss from not taking UT. It isn't ideal, but it is an interesting match up that will get good television ratings and will have attendance that isn't completely horrible.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa State v. Pittsburgh
They're back. Cyclone fans are a win in Lawrence away from bowl eligibility but I can't see how they don't wind up back here again. Pittsburgh is the last bowl eligible team from the Big East and they end up here facing the Cyclones who are the final bowl bound team remaining from the Big XII.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Tennessee v. Tulsa
Keep in mind, there is a distinct possibility that Tennessee opts to skip a bowl appearance as they hire a new coach but I don't think they will do it. The SEC has some say in this match up and I think they try to slot the Volunteers here. Ole Miss is the far more attractive team (they probably aren't firing their head coach and might actually want to be in a bowl game) but how often does this game get a shot at the in state Volunteers? This is a possible landing spot for Pac 12 at large Washington but I think the Huskies decline the invitation to play an SEC team in Tennessee. The Liberty Bowl then has the first selection of a Conference USA team and I think they take league champion Tulsa.
Advocare V100 Independence Bowl:Middle Tennessee State v. Ball State
Yeah this is about as bad as it gets. The Blue Raiders should get bowl eligible and they will be the last team selected as they land here. The last team out of the MAC is Ball State and they land here as well. This is easily one of the worst match ups this bowl season.
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas: Arizona v. Boise State
This could be Washington but I think Arizona is going to finish with a stronger record. Boise State still has an outside shot at a BCS bowl but I don't think it will happen since their computer ranking is going to drag them down. This one is pretty much a layup at this point.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Navy v. Washington
The Midshipmen get an automatic spot in this bowl game when they get to six wins and I think that is a certainty at this point. Washington and Arizona State remain and I think the Huskies are the obvious selection of the two because of their closer proximity to the Bay area and their larger fan base and television cache.
Conference USA usually does more manipulating with its bowl lineup than other leagues and I think Marshall lands here despite it technically being the last bowl tie in for the conference. Bottom line, there are a lot of Sun Belt teams and solid MAC teams available that I think the conferences bowl tie-ins will lobby to get those teams rather than a Marshall squad that won't really bring much to the table. Kent State is bowl eligible for the first time in over 40 years and the Golden Flashes are an easy selection here since they at least provide some story lines and reasons to watch this game.
Poinsettia Bowl: BYU v. San Diego State
BYU is going to going bowling and that means a trip to San Diego for the Poinsettia Bowl. I think San Diego State is an obvious draw here since they will be at least within shouting distance of the top two in the Mountain West (if not second place) which means they wouldn't have a far jump to be playing a home game in their bowl.
New Mexico Bowl: Nevada v. Arizona State
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force v. East CarolinaNo Air Force isn't a bigger draw than Nevada or Fresno State, but the Falcons have political connections with this game and, considering this contest is geared towards active duty and retired military, the Air Force Academy might be a smart pick to attract that audience. East Carolina is a solid team to pit the Falcons against and the Pirates have one of the stronger fan bases in Conference USA.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: SMU v. Fresno State
BBVA Compass Bowl: Arkansas State v. Bowling Green
The Sun Belt gets preferential selection here and Arkansas State's high octane offense makes them the most likely selection. Bowling Green is not a really great selection but they are the best of what's left and they at least give this bowl game a decently interesting match up.
Beef O'Brady's Bowl: Louisiana Lafayette v. New MexicoNo this isn't the kind of game that you write home about but there are a lot of story lines with the Ragin Cajuns in just their second ever bowl win and the Lobos getting to their first bowl game in a long time under former ESPN analyst Bob Davie. ULL should send a few fans and New Mexico isn't the worst traveling team left on the board so, even though there will be plenty of empty seats, this isn't a terrible fall back situation for a bowl who doesn't have a team from either of its affiliated conferences.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana Monroe v.Western Michigan
This is intriguing. I have exactly as many bowl eligible teams as there are slots (technically UTSA and Texas State haven't played enough Div. IA teams to be bowl eligible) so if Western Michigan, or any of the other 6-6 teams I have in, slip up we could start seeing some 5-7 teams filling the slots in bowl games. ULM is the Sun Belt champ and they are the conference tie in for this spot.
Go Daddy.com Bowl: Western Kentucky v. Ohio
Arkansas State was in this game last year so I think Western Kentucky gets selected ahead of them. The Bobcats might be a little bit of a surprise here but Northern Illinois was here last year and Ohio has been a more high profile team this year than Kent State.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois v. Utah State
Northern Illinois falls here after being passed over by the Pizza and Go Daddy.com bowls. Kent State and Ball State are also available but the Huskies will have the better record and have one of the most interesting teams in the MAC. I don't often pick teams that were in the same bowl the year before but Utah State is more likely to travel to Boise than Louisiana Tech or San Jose State so I think the Aggies make the return visit.
Northern Illinois falls here after being passed over by the Pizza and Go Daddy.com bowls. Kent State and Ball State are also available but the Huskies will have the better record and have one of the most interesting teams in the MAC. I don't often pick teams that were in the same bowl the year before but Utah State is more likely to travel to Boise than Louisiana Tech or San Jose State so I think the Aggies make the return visit.
