2013 Bowl Projections Week 14

The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship

2) National Championship

3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick

5) Orange Bowl

6) Sugar Bowl

7) Fiesta Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Florida State v. Alabama

Even if Jameis Winston is suspended I don't see the Seminoles losing to Florida or Duke.  Alabama should have no problem with Auburn this week but that game against Missouri could be a sneaky upset potential game as Mizzou has the tall receivers and fast paced offense which Texas A&M used to put up over 40 points on the Tide.  The Tigers also have a solid defense which the Aggies have lacked all season.

Rose Bowl: Michigan State v. Stanford
I picked MSU to upset Ohio State in this game weeks ago and my pick hasn't changed.  If Jameis Winston is suspended there is a chance Ohio State could jump FSU in the polls should they win out but more than likely this will be the B1G champion vs. the Pac 12 champion like god intended.

Sugar Bowl: Missouri v. UCF

Auburn is a possibility here but I think Mike Slive will pull some strings to get Missouri into this game.  Also, any bowl selection committee member who watched these two teams probably knows Mizzou is the only one of them that can pass worth a damn so there is that.  UCF gets in here as the American Athletic Conference champion.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v. Northern Illinois

Le sigh.  The Cowboys have all but cemented this position with their win over Baylor this past weekend and the Huskies jumped Fresno State in the polls this weekend meaning they need to win out to get a guaranteed berth here.

 

 Orange Bowl: Clemson v. Ohio State

This pick hasn't changed.  With the Buckeyes losing to Michigan State the Orange Bowl has first crack at them in the at large selection order.  Clemson replaces Florida State here for the BCS.  If Ohio State were to go to the Rose Bowl I would replace them with Wisconsin here and if they went to the BCS title game this would be Florida State v. Oregon.

Capital One Bowl: Wisconsin v. Auburn

The Badgers get the short end of the stick with MSU beating out Ohio State, forcing them to Orlando for the Citrus Bowl.  Auburn or Missouri would be the pick here should Mizzou win the SEC East and, like I said above, I think Mike Slive pushes to get Missouri in the Sugar Bowl.

Outback Bowl: Nebraska v. LSU

Nebraska is the obvious choice for the Outback Bowl at this point.  The B1G seems destined to get two teams into the BCS (barring some pretty major upsets on Saturday) so the only way this isn't Big Red is if the Huskers lose to Iowa and fire Bo Pelini, prompting the Outback Bowl to take Iowa.  Even then there is a good chance they still take Nebraska.  South Carolina would be the choice out of the SEC East but they were here last season and I think that prompts the Outback Bowl to take the Bayou Bengals out of the SEC West.

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Texas v. Texas A&M

The Longhorns need to beat Baylor to make this happen but I think the Cotton Bowl would love this match up.  As long as the Aggies agree to it (which they might not giving the history of the two schools) this would be a hell of a Cotton Bowl.  If politics get in the way look for Baylor to get the nod here and Texas to go to the BWWs Bowl.

 

 

Valero Alamo Bowl: Baylor v. Oregon

At one point this was a possible national title match up but this is still going to be a great TV ratings game for the Alamo Bowl.  Oregon gets the nod over Arizona State who will lose the Pac 12 title game and Baylor is here after they get jumped by Texas for the Cotton Bowl as previously described.  If Baylor is taken by the Cotton Bowl I think Oklahoma gets the nod here over the Longhorns.

 

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Minnesota v. Oklahoma

The Sooners lose to Oklahoma State to end up here.  The BWWs bowl then has a choice to make as the Sooners played Iowa here two years ago and, while the Hawkeyes typically travel better than Minnesota, there may be some fatigue having been to this game two of the last three seasons.  I think they tab the Gophers, who have a history with this particular bowl game and will provide some nice story lines for the television broadcast.

Chick Fil-A Bowl: South Carolina v. Virginia Tech

The Peach Bowl folks will gladly take the last Jadeveon Clowney game and then pair the Gamecocks with Virginia Tech who typically travels pretty well for these games.  Neither of these teams have played here in a couple of years so I think they make a pretty obvious pairing.  Duke, Georgia Tech, and Miami are all possible alternates from the ACC side of things. 

 

Gator Bowl: Iowa v. Georgia

  The Hawkeyes end up here, getting selected ahead of Michigan but behind Minnesota and Nebraska.  Georgia could possibly end up in the Chick Fil-A bowl given their proximity to Atlanta which would put South Carolina here.  Also, Vanderbilt or Ole Miss could be an option here given that Georgia has lost multiple starters, including Aaron Murray, to ACL tears. 

 

Russell Athletics Bowl: Louisville v. Miami

The Hurricanes jump Duke because of their proximity to the bowl site in Orlando and to create a pretty interesting name match up with Teddy Bridgewater and Louisville.  The Cardinals have been an after thought since their loss to UCF but they should finish the season at 11-1.

 

Holiday Bowl: Arizona State v. Kansas State
The Sun Devils get taken here and they face off against Kansas State.  Texas Tech is also an option here but the Wildcats tend to travel slightly better than the Red Raiders so I think they will be the call here.

 

  

Meineke Car Care Bowl: Michigan v. Texas Tech

The Wolverines are in complete free fall and they end up as the last B1G team to be selected for a bowl game.  Their opponent will be either Tech or Kansas State, whichever one the Holiday Bowl doesn't want but the Texas bowl folks are probably hoping for Kansas State as the Red Raiders played here last season.

Hyundai Sun Bowl: UCLA v. Duke

  The Sun Bowl is required to take the ACC title game loser should they fall this far so Duke becomes the selection from the ACC here.  UCLA is the obvious selection here from the Pac 12.

 

 Belk Bowl: North Carolina v. Cincinnati

The Belk Bowl has several options out of the ACC for this slot, including UNC, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Maryland, Pittsburgh, and possibly Syracuse.  History says they will take the Tar Heels who are close by and can sell out the stadium.  Cincinati gets the nod from the AAC due to their proximity to the game over Houston or Rutgers.

 

Music City Bowl: Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech

Ole Miss and Vanderbilt are the options here but the Commodores played in this game last season so I think it will be the Rebels this year.  There are several ACC teams available here but I think the Southern connection with the Yellow Jackets would be a nice storyline and would be a solid television draw so I think they are the choice here over Maryland or Boston College.

 

 

Maaco Bowl Las Vegas: USC v. Fresno State

Fresno State wins out but falls short of the BCS.  Instead they head to Las Vegas where they will take on Southern Cal.

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Vanderbilt v. East Carolina

Vandy is the last SEC team available and they will get the trip to Memphis to face Conference USA champion East Carolina.  Depending on who wins the next few weeks, Marshall and Rice could also end up being the Conference USA participants here.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Notre Dame v. Rutgers

Rutgers is almost automatically the pick here because of their proximity to Yankee Stadium.  Notre Dame gets this bowl bid in the event a Big XII team is not eligible and that is going to be the case this year.

 

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: BYU v. Washington

BYU has already accepted their bid to this bowl so the question becomes who will they play.  Washington will have the best remaining record of the available Pac 12 teams and I think their dynamic offense will be the selection here to face the Cougars.

 

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Western Kentucky v. Ball State

With Northern Illinois in the BCS the GoDaddy.com bowl gets the next selection out of the MAC.  I think they go with a 10 win Ball State team to match up with Western Kentucky.  Arkansas State has been to this game the last two years so I think they will get passed up for this game and nobody else available in the Sun Belt will likely have more than six wins.

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: Oregon State v. Maryland

The Terrapins get the nod here because of proximity but frankly this could be any ACC team (Pittsburgh, and Boston College still on the board).  There is no SEC team left to fill this slot so it becomes an at large opening.  I think Oregon State and Washington State get looks out of the Pac 12 and one of them becomes the selection here.

 

Poinsettia Bowl: Toledo v. San Diego State

The MAC gets a replacement for Army who is not bowl elidgible.  It is too bad, since the Poinsettia Bowl would have had a shot at a Pac 12 team if not for the agreement.  I think they take the home town Aztecs in order to guarantee a full stadium and then grab Toledo as the best available MAC team.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Utah State v. Rice

The Aggies are one of the last remaining Mountain West teams and their high powered offense gets the nod here.  They are paired with Conference USA runner up Rice who has a small fan base but a pretty good football team this year.  This would actually be a sneaky good bowl game.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: North Texas v. Navy
Navy has a guaranteed spot here so the only question is who will they play.  North Texas is the closest Conference USA team and the Mean Green have as good a record as anybody else available to this bowl game so they seem like the logical choice.

 

New Mexico Bowl: Boise State v. Arizona

The Wildcats were here last year but the match up with Boise State and the proximity to the bowl site make them an easy pick over Washington State or Oregon State.  The Broncos fall all the way down here after being passed by San Diego State and Fresno State in the bowl pecking order.

 

BBVA Compass Bowl: Houston v. Ohio

The Cougars are selected here where they face Ohio.  The Compass Bowl has an agreement to take either a Conference USA or MAC team if there is not an SEC team available and I think the Bobcats get the nod.  This would have been a possible landing spot for Washington State or Pittsburgh had there not been an agreement in place

 

 

Beef O'Brady's Bowl: Middle Tennessee State v. Troy
  The AAC doesn't have a team here and this bowl game has an alternate system set up with the Sun Belt and the MAC.  Troy looks like they will get to six wins so I am projecting them to this spot given their proximity to Florida (Troy is only two hours from the Panhandle).  If the Trojans lose this week then Central Michigan would be the likely replacement.

Military Bowl: Boston College v. Florida Atlantic
Conference USA has a weird set up with their bowl games where there is less of a selection order and more of a "who wants who and who wants to go where" sort of setup which is facilitated by the league office.  Because of that, I think Tulane decides to play a bowl game at home in New Orleans leaving the Military Bowl with FAU. 

   
Heart of Dallas Bowl: Washington State v. Marshall
There is no B1G team here and no alternate system that I know of so I think Washington State gets the nod here to face Marshall.  Conference USA is weird so there is a chance this could be North Texas or Rice but I think the Thundering Herd get the nod here to face off against a BCS conference opponent. 

 

 

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Bowling Green v. Arkansas State

No Big Ten team here so the Sun Belt #3 has an alternate spot which Arkansas State fills.  They are matched up with the Falcons from Bowling Green who have one of the top defenses in the MAC.

 

 

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Tulane v. Louisiana Lafayette

The New Orleans Bowl grabs Tulane out of the AAC and matches them up with ULL for an all Louisiana New Orleans Bowl which should guarantee some pretty good attendance. 

 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Buffalo v. Colorado State
Pittsburgh fans want to cheer really hard for Air Force this weekend.  If the Falcons win this bowl slot opens up for the Panthers but if not there is a very strong chance that Pitt gets passed over for a bowl game at 6-6.