Bowl Projections Week 15

The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship

2) National Championship

3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick

5) Orange Bowl

6) Sugar Bowl

7) Fiesta Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Florida State v. Missouri

I have been picking Sparty to upset the Buckeyes for a few weeks now and I am not switching now.  Auburn is coming off an emotional win against Alabama and Mizzou is a better team than they are getting any credit for right now.  I think the Tigers win the SEC title and end up in the National Championship Game against Florida State.

Rose Bowl: Michigan State v. Stanford
The Spartans end up here after knocking off Ohio State but frankly I think they end up here regardless of what happens in Indy since they will be the most obvious replacement should the Buckeyes go to the National Title game.  The winner of ASU-Stanford will be the opponent here and I believe the Cardinal win the Pac 12 title game.

 

Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. UCF

The Crimson Tide are going to end up in a BCS bowl over the SEC title game loser, so the only question will be whether they are in the Sugar Bowl or Orange Bowl.  If Ohio State wins they are headed to Miami but if the Buckeyes lose Alabama heads here to face AAC champion UCF. 

 

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v. Northern Illinois

If Northern Illinois wins the MAC title game against Bowling Green this weekend they are going to be locked in to a BCS bowl berth.  They are picked last of the at-large teams and face Big XII champion Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.  If NIU loses then UCF will be the opponent here and Baylor will go to the Sugar Bowl to face Alabama.

 

Orange Bowl: Clemson v. Ohio State

This pick hasn't changed.  With the Buckeyes losing to Michigan State the Orange Bowl has first crack at them in the at large selection order.  Clemson replaces Florida State here for the BCS. 

 

Capital One Bowl: Wisconsin v. Auburn

The Badgers are locked in here unless the Capital One Bowl really wants an 8-4 Iowa or Nebraska team.  They will face the loser of the SEC title game which I believe will be Auburn.

 

 

Outback Bowl: Iowa v. South Carolina

The Outback may be the most interesting bowl game this season.  They have Iowa and Nebraska to choose from on the B1G side and South Carolina or whichever team the Cotton Bowl doesn't take from the SEC West on the other.  The Outback had the Gamecocks last year but Jadeveon Clowney's hit will get replayed over and over so it should hype up the game.  Iowa has head to head wins over Nebraska and Minnesota plus the Hawkeyes have a history with this bowl.  Nebraska could be the choice because of their fan base but I think it will be Iowa in order to create the best match up. 

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Baylor v. Texas A&M

LSU and Texas A&M are the most likely choices here and both are tempting.  However, Baylor and A&M have a longstanding rivalry and the idea of Johnny Football against Art Briles' offense will attract a lot of viewers who love offense.  Baylor is the Big XII representative in this game unless Northern Illinois loses in the MAC title game in which case this game will feature Texas and LSU.

 

 

Valero Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma v. Oregon

The Longhorns were here last year and I think I am going to get on the bandwagon and put the Sooners in this bowl game.  If Texas beats Baylor on Saturday I think there is a chance that they are the pick here but at this point I think it is smart to play the odds and put Oklahoma here.  Arizona State is also a possibility here but the Ducks still have a lot of cache in their brand name and I think they are the pick here to face the Sooners.

 

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Nebraska v. Texas

With Iowa going to the Outback Bowl the BWWs bowl doesn't have to worry about the Hawkeye fans not being excited about making a third trip to Tempe in four years.  The Husker fans will travel and this match up will be huge for television ratings as it features two huge brand names renewing a bitter rivalry.

Chick Fil-A Bowl: LSU v. Virginia Tech

With Texas A&M going to the Cotton Bowl the Tigers fall back here where they will take on the Virginia Tech Hokies.  If LSU is the selection then Duke, the ACC Coastal champion, is not likely going here since the Tiger fans likely won't pack this stadium for two years in a row against a no name opponent.  Meanwhile Virginia Tech is the best available quasi big name out of the ACC and their fans travel well enough to pick up the slack from LSU.

 

Gator Bowl: Minnesota v. Georgia

Georgia might as well accept a bid to this bowl game at this point because unless the Gator breaks with all logic and picks Vanderbilt the Bulldogs are going here.  Michigan could be the selection here but I think the Gophers are a better story than the Wolverines and there may be some bargaining with the Meineke Car Care Bowl who will want to avoid a rematch of last year.

 

Russell Athletics Bowl: Louisville v. Miami

The Athletics Bowl won't be looking to take Duke when Miami is available and so close by.  Louisville makes an intriguing opponent because of how highly regarded they were coming into the season and because of the Cardinal's connection to Florida through the coaching staff and recruiting.

 

Holiday Bowl: Arizona State v. Kansas State
The Sun Devils are chosen to represent the Pac 12 here since UCLA came to this bowl game last year.  The Big XII representative could be either Kansas State or Texas Tech but the Red Raiders have lost five straight and that lack of momentum, plus the fact that K-State typically travels pretty well to bowl games, means that the Wildcats will be the selection here.

  

Meineke Car Care Bowl: Michigan v. Texas Tech

Michigan and Texas Tech are both the last teams selected from their respective conferences so neither is really a surprise.  Obviously if Texas Tech goes to the Holiday Bowl or Michigan goes to the Gator Bowl this game could include either Minnesota or Kansas State (or both), but as of now this looks like the most likely outcome.

Hyundai Sun Bowl: UCLA v. Duke

The Sun Bowl is required to take the ACC title game loser should they fall this far so Duke becomes the selection from the ACC here.  UCLA is still the obvious selection here out of the Pac 12.

 

 Belk Bowl: North Carolina v. Cincinnati

The Belk Bowl has several options out of the ACC for this slot, including UNC, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Maryland, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse.  History says they will take the Tar Heels who are close by and can sell out the stadium.  Cincinnati was here last year and Houston has a pretty decent fan base so I think that the Cougars could jump here but Cincinnati has a better overall record and won the head to head so I think they return here.

 

Music City Bowl: Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech

Ole Miss and Vanderbilt are the options here but the Commodores played in this game last season so I think it will be the Rebels this year.  There are several ACC teams available here but I think the Southern connection with the Yellow Jackets would be a nice storyline and would be a solid television draw so I think they are the choice here over Maryland or Boston College.

  

Maaco Bowl Las Vegas: USC v. Fresno State

Fresno State lost to San Jose State this weekend so this is their best bet at a bowl game.  If they lose to Boise State they will drop further but the Broncos have been so mediocre this season I have a hard time seeing Fresno losing that game.  Their opponent will be the USC Trojans from the Pac 12.

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Vanderbilt v. Marshall

Vandy is selected here to face Conference USA champion Marshall.  Marshall faces North Texas this weekend in the Conference USA championship game so the winner of that game will get the nod here (obviously I am thinking it will be Marshall).

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Notre Dame v. Rutgers

Rutgers is almost automatically the pick here because of their proximity to Yankee Stadium.  Notre Dame gets this bowl bid in the event a Big XII team is not eligible and that is going to be the case this year. 

 

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: BYU v. Washington

BYU has already accepted their bid to this bowl so the question becomes who will they play.  Washington will have the best remaining record of the available Pac 12 teams and I think their dynamic offense will be the selection here to face the Cougars.

 

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Western Kentucky v. Ball State

With Northern Illinois in the BCS the GoDaddy.com bowl gets the next selection out of the MAC.  I think they go with a 10 win Ball State team to match up with Western Kentucky.  Arkansas State has been to this game the last two years so I think they will get passed up for this game and nobody else available in the Sun Belt has more than six wins.

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: Mississippi State v. Boston College

Boston College's running back Andre Williams will be the big sell for the Eagles here and I think it gets them a nod over Maryland, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse.  Mississippi State knocked off Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl to get to 6-6 this weekend and they are the last SEC team taken.

 

Poinsettia Bowl: Toledo v. San Diego State

The MAC gets a replacement for Army who is not bowl elidgible.  It is too bad, since the Poinsettia Bowl would have had a shot at a Pac 12 team if not for the agreement.  I think they take the home town Aztecs in order to guarantee a full stadium and then grab Toledo as the best available MAC team. 

 

  Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: UNLV v. Rice

There are several Mountain West teams available here but I think UNLV gets the nod because of the fact that they haven't been to a bowl game in a while and have fewer losses than the other teams available.  Rice is still my prognostication from Conference USA but that conference is always a bit of a crap shoot to project in bowl games.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: North Texas v. Navy
Navy has a guaranteed spot here so the only question is who will they play.  North Texas is the closest Conference USA team and the Mean Green have as good a record as anybody else available to this bowl game so they seem like the logical choice.

 

New Mexico Bowl: Utah State v. Arizona

The Wildcats were here last year but their 7-5 record and proximity to the bowl site make them the de facto choice here over 6-6 Oregon State and Washington State squads.  Utah State is here after Boise State elects to save money and stay home for their bowl game rather than travel all the way to New Mexico.

 

BBVA Compass Bowl: Cincinnati v. Syracuse

The Bearcats are selected here where they face the Orange.  Syracuse is 6-6 and will be looking for a spot to land but their proximity, versus a team like Oregon State, and their history with Cincinnati make them the choice here over the Beavers or other at large teams.

 

 

Beef O'Brady's Bowl: East Carolina v. Pittsburgh
  The AAC doesn't have a team here and this bowl game has an alternate system set up with the Sun Belt and the MAC, however those agreements usually don't include 6-6 teams so I think they tab Pittsburgh as the at large team for this bowl game.  East Carolina is a great grab here and having them against an ACC team should make this an interesting game to watch.

Military Bowl: Maryland v. Middle Tennessee State
Conference USA has a weird set up with their bowl games where there is less of a selection order and more of a "who wants who and who wants to go where" sort of setup which is facilitated by the league office.  Because of that, I think Tulane decides to play a bowl game at home in New Orleans leaving the Military Bowl with MTSU.  Meanwhile Maryland seems like the obvious choice here because of their 7-5 record and their proximity to the bowl site.

 

   Heart of Dallas Bowl: Washington State v. Florida Atlantic
There is no B1G team here and no alternate system that I know of so I think Washington State gets the nod here to face Marshall.  Conference USA's bowl selection procedure is a bit wonky but FAU is bowl elidgible and I don't see the administration giving up the opportunity to play here. 

 

 

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Bowling Green v. Arkansas State

No Big Ten team here so the Sun Belt #3 has an alternate spot which Arkansas State fills.  They are matched up with the Falcons from Bowling Green who have one of the top defenses in the MAC.

 

 

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Tulane v. Louisiana Lafayette

The New Orleans Bowl grabs Tulane out of the AAC and matches them up with ULL for an all Louisiana New Orleans Bowl which should guarantee some pretty good attendance. 

 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Buffalo v. Boise State
Boise State chooses to go here as it will save them a butt load of money and actually could put them in the black this bowl season.  Buffalo is the best available MAC team and is therefore the chosen opponent to face off against there.