Bowl Projections Week 15

The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship

2) National Championship

3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick

5) Orange Bowl

6) Sugar Bowl

7) Fiesta Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Florida State v. Missouri

I have been picking Sparty to upset the Buckeyes for a few weeks now and I am not switching now.  Auburn is coming off an emotional win against Alabama and Mizzou is a better team than they are getting any credit for right now.  I think the Tigers win the SEC title and end up in the National Championship Game against Florida State.

Rose Bowl: Michigan State v. Stanford
The Spartans end up here after knocking off Ohio State but frankly I think they end up here regardless of what happens in Indy since they will be the most obvious replacement should the Buckeyes go to the National Title game.  The winner of ASU-Stanford will be the opponent here and I believe the Cardinal win the Pac 12 title game.

 

Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. UCF

The Crimson Tide are going to end up in a BCS bowl over the SEC title game loser, so the only question will be whether they are in the Sugar Bowl or Orange Bowl.  If Ohio State wins they are headed to Miami but if the Buckeyes lose Alabama heads here to face AAC champion UCF. 

 

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v. Northern Illinois

If Northern Illinois wins the MAC title game against Bowling Green this weekend they are going to be locked in to a BCS bowl berth.  They are picked last of the at-large teams and face Big XII champion Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.  If NIU loses then UCF will be the opponent here and Baylor will go to the Sugar Bowl to face Alabama.

 

Orange Bowl: Clemson v. Ohio State

This pick hasn't changed.  With the Buckeyes losing to Michigan State the Orange Bowl has first crack at them in the at large selection order.  Clemson replaces Florida State here for the BCS. 

 

Capital One Bowl: Wisconsin v. Auburn

The Badgers are locked in here unless the Capital One Bowl really wants an 8-4 Iowa or Nebraska team.  They will face the loser of the SEC title game which I believe will be Auburn.

 

 

Outback Bowl: Iowa v. South Carolina

The Outback may be the most interesting bowl game this season.  They have Iowa and Nebraska to choose from on the B1G side and South Carolina or whichever team the Cotton Bowl doesn't take from the SEC West on the other.  The Outback had the Gamecocks last year but Jadeveon Clowney's hit will get replayed over and over so it should hype up the game.  Iowa has head to head wins over Nebraska and Minnesota plus the Hawkeyes have a history with this bowl.  Nebraska could be the choice because of their fan base but I think it will be Iowa in order to create the best match up. 

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Baylor v. Texas A&M

LSU and Texas A&M are the most likely choices here and both are tempting.  However, Baylor and A&M have a longstanding rivalry and the idea of Johnny Football against Art Briles' offense will attract a lot of viewers who love offense.  Baylor is the Big XII representative in this game unless Northern Illinois loses in the MAC title game in which case this game will feature Texas and LSU.

 

 

Valero Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma v. Oregon

The Longhorns were here last year and I think I am going to get on the bandwagon and put the Sooners in this bowl game.  If Texas beats Baylor on Saturday I think there is a chance that they are the pick here but at this point I think it is smart to play the odds and put Oklahoma here.  Arizona State is also a possibility here but the Ducks still have a lot of cache in their brand name and I think they are the pick here to face the Sooners.

 

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Nebraska v. Texas

With Iowa going to the Outback Bowl the BWWs bowl doesn't have to worry about the Hawkeye fans not being excited about making a third trip to Tempe in four years.  The Husker fans will travel and this match up will be huge for television ratings as it features two huge brand names renewing a bitter rivalry.

Chick Fil-A Bowl: LSU v. Virginia Tech

With Texas A&M going to the Cotton Bowl the Tigers fall back here where they will take on the Virginia Tech Hokies.  If LSU is the selection then Duke, the ACC Coastal champion, is not likely going here since the Tiger fans likely won't pack this stadium for two years in a row against a no name opponent.  Meanwhile Virginia Tech is the best available quasi big name out of the ACC and their fans travel well enough to pick up the slack from LSU.

 

Gator Bowl: Minnesota v. Georgia

Georgia might as well accept a bid to this bowl game at this point because unless the Gator breaks with all logic and picks Vanderbilt the Bulldogs are going here.  Michigan could be the selection here but I think the Gophers are a better story than the Wolverines and there may be some bargaining with the Meineke Car Care Bowl who will want to avoid a rematch of last year.

 

Russell Athletics Bowl: Louisville v. Miami

The Athletics Bowl won't be looking to take Duke when Miami is available and so close by.  Louisville makes an intriguing opponent because of how highly regarded they were coming into the season and because of the Cardinal's connection to Florida through the coaching staff and recruiting.

 

Holiday Bowl: Arizona State v. Kansas State
The Sun Devils are chosen to represent the Pac 12 here since UCLA came to this bowl game last year.  The Big XII representative could be either Kansas State or Texas Tech but the Red Raiders have lost five straight and that lack of momentum, plus the fact that K-State typically travels pretty well to bowl games, means that the Wildcats will be the selection here.

  

Meineke Car Care Bowl: Michigan v. Texas Tech

Michigan and Texas Tech are both the last teams selected from their respective conferences so neither is really a surprise.  Obviously if Texas Tech goes to the Holiday Bowl or Michigan goes to the Gator Bowl this game could include either Minnesota or Kansas State (or both), but as of now this looks like the most likely outcome.

Hyundai Sun Bowl: UCLA v. Duke

The Sun Bowl is required to take the ACC title game loser should they fall this far so Duke becomes the selection from the ACC here.  UCLA is still the obvious selection here out of the Pac 12.

 

 Belk Bowl: North Carolina v. Cincinnati

The Belk Bowl has several options out of the ACC for this slot, including UNC, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Maryland, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse.  History says they will take the Tar Heels who are close by and can sell out the stadium.  Cincinnati was here last year and Houston has a pretty decent fan base so I think that the Cougars could jump here but Cincinnati has a better overall record and won the head to head so I think they return here.

 

Music City Bowl: Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech

Ole Miss and Vanderbilt are the options here but the Commodores played in this game last season so I think it will be the Rebels this year.  There are several ACC teams available here but I think the Southern connection with the Yellow Jackets would be a nice storyline and would be a solid television draw so I think they are the choice here over Maryland or Boston College.

  

Maaco Bowl Las Vegas: USC v. Fresno State

Fresno State lost to San Jose State this weekend so this is their best bet at a bowl game.  If they lose to Boise State they will drop further but the Broncos have been so mediocre this season I have a hard time seeing Fresno losing that game.  Their opponent will be the USC Trojans from the Pac 12.

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Vanderbilt v. Marshall

Vandy is selected here to face Conference USA champion Marshall.  Marshall faces North Texas this weekend in the Conference USA championship game so the winner of that game will get the nod here (obviously I am thinking it will be Marshall).

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Notre Dame v. Rutgers

Rutgers is almost automatically the pick here because of their proximity to Yankee Stadium.  Notre Dame gets this bowl bid in the event a Big XII team is not eligible and that is going to be the case this year. 

 

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: BYU v. Washington

BYU has already accepted their bid to this bowl so the question becomes who will they play.  Washington will have the best remaining record of the available Pac 12 teams and I think their dynamic offense will be the selection here to face the Cougars.

 

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Western Kentucky v. Ball State

With Northern Illinois in the BCS the GoDaddy.com bowl gets the next selection out of the MAC.  I think they go with a 10 win Ball State team to match up with Western Kentucky.  Arkansas State has been to this game the last two years so I think they will get passed up for this game and nobody else available in the Sun Belt has more than six wins.

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: Mississippi State v. Boston College

Boston College's running back Andre Williams will be the big sell for the Eagles here and I think it gets them a nod over Maryland, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse.  Mississippi State knocked off Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl to get to 6-6 this weekend and they are the last SEC team taken.

 

Poinsettia Bowl: Toledo v. San Diego State

The MAC gets a replacement for Army who is not bowl elidgible.  It is too bad, since the Poinsettia Bowl would have had a shot at a Pac 12 team if not for the agreement.  I think they take the home town Aztecs in order to guarantee a full stadium and then grab Toledo as the best available MAC team. 

 

  Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: UNLV v. Rice

There are several Mountain West teams available here but I think UNLV gets the nod because of the fact that they haven't been to a bowl game in a while and have fewer losses than the other teams available.  Rice is still my prognostication from Conference USA but that conference is always a bit of a crap shoot to project in bowl games.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: North Texas v. Navy
Navy has a guaranteed spot here so the only question is who will they play.  North Texas is the closest Conference USA team and the Mean Green have as good a record as anybody else available to this bowl game so they seem like the logical choice.

 

New Mexico Bowl: Utah State v. Arizona

The Wildcats were here last year but their 7-5 record and proximity to the bowl site make them the de facto choice here over 6-6 Oregon State and Washington State squads.  Utah State is here after Boise State elects to save money and stay home for their bowl game rather than travel all the way to New Mexico.

 

BBVA Compass Bowl: Cincinnati v. Syracuse

The Bearcats are selected here where they face the Orange.  Syracuse is 6-6 and will be looking for a spot to land but their proximity, versus a team like Oregon State, and their history with Cincinnati make them the choice here over the Beavers or other at large teams.

 

 

Beef O'Brady's Bowl: East Carolina v. Pittsburgh
  The AAC doesn't have a team here and this bowl game has an alternate system set up with the Sun Belt and the MAC, however those agreements usually don't include 6-6 teams so I think they tab Pittsburgh as the at large team for this bowl game.  East Carolina is a great grab here and having them against an ACC team should make this an interesting game to watch.

Military Bowl: Maryland v. Middle Tennessee State
Conference USA has a weird set up with their bowl games where there is less of a selection order and more of a "who wants who and who wants to go where" sort of setup which is facilitated by the league office.  Because of that, I think Tulane decides to play a bowl game at home in New Orleans leaving the Military Bowl with MTSU.  Meanwhile Maryland seems like the obvious choice here because of their 7-5 record and their proximity to the bowl site.

 

   Heart of Dallas Bowl: Washington State v. Florida Atlantic
There is no B1G team here and no alternate system that I know of so I think Washington State gets the nod here to face Marshall.  Conference USA's bowl selection procedure is a bit wonky but FAU is bowl elidgible and I don't see the administration giving up the opportunity to play here. 

 

 

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Bowling Green v. Arkansas State

No Big Ten team here so the Sun Belt #3 has an alternate spot which Arkansas State fills.  They are matched up with the Falcons from Bowling Green who have one of the top defenses in the MAC.

 

 

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Tulane v. Louisiana Lafayette

The New Orleans Bowl grabs Tulane out of the AAC and matches them up with ULL for an all Louisiana New Orleans Bowl which should guarantee some pretty good attendance. 

 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Buffalo v. Boise State
Boise State chooses to go here as it will save them a butt load of money and actually could put them in the black this bowl season.  Buffalo is the best available MAC team and is therefore the chosen opponent to face off against there.

2013 Bowl Projections Week 14

The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship

2) National Championship

3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick

5) Orange Bowl

6) Sugar Bowl

7) Fiesta Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Florida State v. Alabama

Even if Jameis Winston is suspended I don't see the Seminoles losing to Florida or Duke.  Alabama should have no problem with Auburn this week but that game against Missouri could be a sneaky upset potential game as Mizzou has the tall receivers and fast paced offense which Texas A&M used to put up over 40 points on the Tide.  The Tigers also have a solid defense which the Aggies have lacked all season.

Rose Bowl: Michigan State v. Stanford
I picked MSU to upset Ohio State in this game weeks ago and my pick hasn't changed.  If Jameis Winston is suspended there is a chance Ohio State could jump FSU in the polls should they win out but more than likely this will be the B1G champion vs. the Pac 12 champion like god intended.

Sugar Bowl: Missouri v. UCF

Auburn is a possibility here but I think Mike Slive will pull some strings to get Missouri into this game.  Also, any bowl selection committee member who watched these two teams probably knows Mizzou is the only one of them that can pass worth a damn so there is that.  UCF gets in here as the American Athletic Conference champion.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State v. Northern Illinois

Le sigh.  The Cowboys have all but cemented this position with their win over Baylor this past weekend and the Huskies jumped Fresno State in the polls this weekend meaning they need to win out to get a guaranteed berth here.

 

 Orange Bowl: Clemson v. Ohio State

This pick hasn't changed.  With the Buckeyes losing to Michigan State the Orange Bowl has first crack at them in the at large selection order.  Clemson replaces Florida State here for the BCS.  If Ohio State were to go to the Rose Bowl I would replace them with Wisconsin here and if they went to the BCS title game this would be Florida State v. Oregon.

2013 Bowl Projections Week 11

The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship

2) National Championship

3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick

5) Orange Bowl

6) Sugar Bowl
7) Fiesta Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Florida State v. Alabama

I think Oregon will lose a game somewhere along the way as will Alabama.  The Tide win the SEC title game though and they take on the undefeated Seminoles in the National title game.

Rose Bowl: Michigan State v. Stanford
The Spartans end up winning the Big Ten title, upsetting undefeated Ohio State and keeping the Buckeyes out of the National Title Game.  The Cardinal won in Autzen last season and I think they manage to defeat the Ducks again in Palo Alto this year sending them to Pasadena to face the Spartans.

Sugar Bowl: Auburn v. UCF

The Sugar Bowl could take a Big XII team here like Texas Tech or Texas if those teams remained competitive but I don't think either of those teams will finished ranked high enough to merit a selection over 11-1 Oregon.  Auburn is here for as Alabama's replacement after going 10-2.

Fiesta Bowl: Baylor v. Northern Illinois

Worst. Fiesta Bowl. Ever.  The Bears suffer a loss but still manage to get the Big XII's Fiesta Bowl berth.  Fresno State loses it's rematch with Boise State in the MWC Championship Game to keep the Bulldogs out of the BCS.

 

 Orange Bowl: Clemson v. Ohio State

The Buckeyes have only one loss on the season but they are a national name that travels extremely well and wasn't in a bowl game last year which maeks them the obvious first at large selection.  I have Clemson being taken as Florida State's replacement but don't be surprised if they take Miami, Oregon, or Baylor instead.

Big Ten Basketball Power Rankings: Week Three

New this year, the Big Ten basketball Power Rankings will come out once a month during the preseason (once in November and once in December) and every week during the Big Ten season. 

1. Indiana (15-1, 3-0)
The boys in the candy stripped pants are back on top this week and, frankly, it seems hard to believe they ever left this spot.  The Hoosiers played one of the most dominant first halves of basketball anyone has played all year against Minnesota and, despite a late comeback, they managed to get a major win in that game.  Wisconsin and at Northwestern are the next two on the docket for Indiana and it would be surprising if either team posed a challenge.  The Badgers have not been a great road team and Northwestern is terrible so IU should be on cruise control until the 27th when they host Michigan State. 

2. Minnesota (15-2, 3-1)
The Gophers lost to Indiana but their second half comeback in Bloomington was impressive.  Add to that a nice road victory over Illinois and the Gophers look every bit the part of a conference title contender.  Up next is Michigan at The Barn in a game that will be very telling as to whether the Gophers truly belong here. 

3. Michigan (16-1, 3-1)
Road losses don't come any tougher than the one Michigan suffered to nemesis Ohio State on Sunday.  The Wolverines had their worst offensive performance of the season in Columbus.  Even worse, Go Blue started last week with a dud against lowly Nebraska where they set what was their season low in points before they traveled to Ohio on Sunday.  Michigan looks very much like previous flawed Beilein squads that rely too heavily on the three.  Sure this team is more talented than previous iterations of this team and they are somewhat more versatile, but this week really brought into question whether the Wolverines can cut it on offense against some of the top tier defenses in the league.

4. Michigan State (14-3, 3-1)
These next four spots are pretty much up for grabs as the Spartans, Illini, Buckeyes, and Badgers have all been hit or miss.  I am putting MSU here since I had them here last week and because, even though they have been playing lower ranked teams incredibly close recently, they still seem to have the best resume of the four teams listed.  Tom Izzo's club travels to Penn State on Wednesday before coming home to face the Buckeyes which is the start of a brutal four game stretch to end the month. 

5. Ohio State (13-3, 3-1)
The Buckeyes had an impressive win at home against Michigan on Sunday.  Thad Matta gets the week off to prepare his team for their road trip to East Lansing and a win there would put the Buckeyes back into the conversation for a Big Ten title.  This team is still flawed in that DeShaun Thomas is still there only major offensive threat but the Buckeyes are playing very solid defense at home and they will be incredibly difficult to beat this season.

6. Wisconsin (12-4, 3-0)
Slowly but surely the Badgers are climbing back into the discussion of being a top tier team in the Big Ten.  They still have only played one ranked team, defeating the struggling Illini on Saturday at home, but Wisconsin is going to have plenty of opportunities to prove they belong up here in the coming weeks as the grueling mid section of their schedule continues.  Up next is are back to back road trips to Bloomington and Iowa City, the latter representing one of only two games against unranked teams the Badgers will play until late February (the other being a home date with the Hawkeyes).  A split here is probably a must given that Wisconsin probably will need some road wins against teams like Iowa to balance potential home losses against teams like Minnesota and Michigan. 

7. Illinois (14-4, 1-3)
No team had a worse week than Illinois who dropped games at home to Minnesota and at Wisconsin that will probably knock them out of the conference title discussion early.  Like Michigan this team has been over reliant on the three point shot this season but, unlike the Wolverines, Coach Groce's squad just doesn't have the skill yet to score inside with regularity when three's aren't falling.  The Illini will look to get back on track when they host in-state rival Northwestern on Thursday, their only game this week.  Northwestern is even weaker in the post than Illinois so this should be an easy win but if Illinois fails to defend the three they could be looking at potentially facing another second half collapse.

8. Iowa (12-5, 1-3)
The loss to Michigan State at home on Thursday was frustrating as Iowa was without star player Devyn Marble and still came within three of the Spartans.  However, Sunday's annihilation of Northwestern was a breath of fresh air which showed the Hawkeyes are still a dangerous team.  They get the week off before hosting Wisconsin and then going back on the road to Ohio State and Purdue.  A 1-2 split in this part of the schedule is likely (the difficulty in Iowa's schedule doesn't really ease up until February) but more would be big for the Hawks who need to find some big wins to start building an NCAA tournament resume.

9. Purdue (8-8, 2-2)
Not much has changed with Purdue since the last version of these rankings.  They soundly beat a terrible Penn State team at home and will travel to Nebraska for a sneaky tough road trip on Wednesday before hosting West Virginia on Saturday.  The schedule is back-loaded with ranked teams including six games against the top three teams in these rankings.  Unless the Boilers get some major upsets and manage to win some of their road trips to schools like Iowa and Wisconsin this team is not going to be able to have a shot at a postseason tournament of any kind.

10. Nebraska (9-8, 0-4)
This might come as a shock but Nebraska has quietly been playing very well recently.  Their four conference losses have come against Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan with only one of those games (Wisconsin) being in Lincoln and only one of the games (Ohio State) wasn't at least somewhat close.  The Huskers get Purdue at home on Wednesday before traveling to State College.  I am betting that Nebraska can sweep those two games.  In fact, with Illinois and Northwestern at home the following week, there is a solid chance Big Red could manage a four game winning streak before traveling to Minneapolis on the 29th. 

11. Northwestern (10-7, 1-3)
Don't let the record fool you, the Wildcats lone conference win came against moribund Penn State and their 20 point home loss to Iowa was far worse than anything Nebraska has done in conference.  Northwestern was dominated in the paint by Iowa and the three pointers were just not falling.  Bill Carmody's M.O. since he got to Evanston has been ball control and efficient shooting, but when teams are dominating you in the paint and getting easy dunks and layups you can't rely on three point shooting night in and night out.  Northwestern's defense was terrible Sunday and if Carmody wants to save his job he had better get it figured out soon as the Cats play Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota in their next three games.

12. Penn State (8-8, 0-4)
The long march of the season continues on for Penn State.  This team got blown out at home by Northwestern last week and then fell by 18 at Purdue.   There really doesn't appear to be any redeeming characteristic to this Penn State team and at this point it would be surprising if they managed more than one or two conference wins if they get any at all.

Big Ten Conference Power Rankings: Week Two

New this year, the Big Ten basketball Power Rankings will come out once a month during the preseason (once in November and once in December) and every week during the Big Ten season. 

1. Michigan (15-0, 2-0)
Go Blue knocked off Northwestern and Iowa in spectacular fashion to start off conference play.  While neither team is ranked or a conference title contender, double digit domination is going to be rare in this league and getting two in a row (including one on the road) is huge for the Wolverine's start to the season.  The Wolverines host Nebraska before back-to-back road tilts against Ohio State and Minnesota in the coming weeks.  Those road games will be the first true road games Michigan has played all season and will be against the highest ranked teams the Wolverines have faced to date so we should have a much clearer picture of whether this spot is deserved in a week and a half.

2. Indiana (14-1, 2-0)
The Hoosiers knocked off Iowa and Penn State in consecutive road contests to begin conference play and will face Minnesota and Wisconsin in Assembly Hall during the coming week.  Statistically this team has been dominant with the top ranked scoring offense in college basketball and top 12 spots in both rebounds and assists per game.  This team is still very deep but, until the ranked teams start playing more games against each other, it is difficult to determine who really deserves to be slotted where.

3. Minnesota (14-1, 2-0)
The Gophers managed solid wins against the Spartans and Wildcats, both in Minneapolis, over the past week which solidifies their placement here.  I was hesitant to put them here last week but Minnesota has so far proven that it has the capability to back up its strong non-conference numbers during Big Ten play.  Up next for the maroon and gold is a major test with two road contests to Illinois and Indiana with a home date against Michigan waiting for them when they return.  This stretch won't necessarily determine the Gophers season as an 0-3 mark could be overcome but if the Gophers can nab a win or two they will cement their place in this spot and maybe even move higher in these rankings.

4. Michigan State (12-3, 1-1)
I am still not ready to drop Michigan State from this spot.  Tom Izzo's squad ran into a buzz saw in Minneapolis to kick off Big Ten play and then used a second half surge to defeat Purdue by 23 in Lansing.  The Spartans are going to have some growing pains but they are still a very tough and very dangerous team to face.  Up next is a road trip to Iowa before dates against Nebraska and Penn State.  MSU needs a 3-0 mark in that stretch to move up in the rankings and contend for a Big Ten title.

5. Illinois (14-2, 1-1)
Illinois lost a head scratching game to Purdue before pouring it on Ohio State in Chambana.  Tonight they host the Gophers and then follow that up with games at Wisconsin and at home against Northwestern.  Winning tonight is a must if the Illini are going to get back into the conference title discussion and they probably can't afford a loss to Wisconsin or Northwestern in those upcoming games either as the Illini have a brutal stretch in the schedule late in the season.


6. Ohio State (12-3, 2-1)
Thad Matta's club beat down Nebraska before being thumped by the Illini, but they rebounded nicely last night against Purdue in a tricky road game.  Still, this team has fewer top 100 wins than Iowa and channels their entire offense through one player, Deshaun Thomas so I remain reluctant to put them any higher than this at this juncture.  The Buckeyes have games at Penn State, v. Wisconsin, and at Nebraska coming down the pipe so there really aren't any opportunities to make a statement that they deserve to be higher in these rankings in the next few weeks.  This should be an easy 3-0 stretch and anything less by Ohio State will probably move them out of the top six.

7. Wisconsin (11-4, 2-0)
The Badgers took care of business against Penn State and Nebraska to open their Big Ten slate and now face Illinois at home before road games against Indiana and Iowa.  In fact, outside of two games against the Hawkeyes, Wisconsin will not play a team that not currently ranked again until February 20th when they travel to Northwestern.  This stretch will determine the course of the season for the fighting Bo Ryan's.  For now though, the Badgers have earned this bump up in the rankings.

8. Iowa (11-4, 0-2)
Iowa opened Big Ten play with consecutive losses to Indiana and Michigan.  Both of those are forgivable considering how good those teams are (and Iowa was at least competitive against IU at home), however it underscores how important it will be for the Hawkeyes to get some wins in conference play sooner rather than later to avoid having to dig themselves out of a massive hole to get into NCAA tournament consideration.  The Hawks host Michigan State tomorrow before traveling to Northwestern and coming back home to face Wisconsin.  A 3-0 run in that stretch would be ideal but even a 2-1 split would be acceptable for this Iowa squad which is just trying to get something going to start off the season.


9. Purdue (7-8, 1-2)
Yes the Boilermakers are on a two game skid with losses to Michigan State and Ohio State in addition to being back under .500 but Purdue is dangerous, as shown by their defeat of Illinois to kick off Big Ten play.  This is not an NCAA tournament team, but these guys will play the role of spoilermakers for the rest of the season.  The Boilers have games against Penn State, Nebraska, and West Virginia up next and it isn't unreasonable to see the Matt Painter's team going 3-0 in that stretch. 

10. Northwestern (9-6, 0-2)
The Wildcats dropped double digit games to Michigan and Minnesota to kick off their Big Ten slate and they will travel to State College to take on the Nittany Lions before coming home to play Iowa.  Northwestern's injury woes were documented well in the last edition of these rankings and it is worth mentioning that this team just looks like it is two guys away from being a complete team.  This team is going to struggle to find consistency all season but they should still not be considered a given win on the road for anyone, particularly teams outside the top six.


11. Nebraska (9-6, 0-2)
The Cornhuskers were demolished by Ohio State on the road and then passed over by Wisconsin in Lincoln to open conference play.  The schedule doesn't get any easier with a two game road stint to take on the Michigan schools before coming home to face a dangerous Purdue squad.  Tim Miles' club probably isn't going to be upsetting anyone on the road in the Big Ten this season but they should manage to at least stay competitive at home as they did in their last game against Wisconsin.  I think they have a little more potential for some home upsets than Penn State which is why I have them here but neither team is going to be doing much in the postseason.

12. Penn State (8-6, 0-2)
Tim Frazier's club dropped games at Wisconsin and at home against Indiana to kick off their conference schedule.  Next up on the docket are home dates against Northwestern and Michigan State sandwhiched around a road trip to Purdue.  This team is still reeling from the loss of Tim Frazier as they only scored 51 points in each of their Big Ten games and are ranked only 268th nationally in ppg.  Even worse, they are 335th nationally in assists per game and 290th in field goal percentage.  Those numbers are not going to get it done in the Big Ten and this team is probably going to lose a lot of games this season.

Big Ten Conference Power Rankings: Start of Conference Play

New this year, the Big Ten basketball Power Rankings will come out once a month during the preseason (once in November and once in December) and every week during the Big Ten season. 

1. Michigan (12-0)
The Wolverines are the only unbeaten team remaining in the Big Ten and, while they may not have played the most grueling schedule in the conference, they have had enough impressive wins to make this spot a given.  Big Blue has looked downright dominant at times and I will have to eat some crow as they are more than deserving of their preseason ranking.  In this season of college basketball where there doesn't look to be one or two completely dominant teams (a la Kentucky last season) Michigan has an opportunity to make a run to the Final Four and, just maybe, the National Title.

2. Indiana (11-1)
IU had a tough loss against Butler in overtime but this is a team that can really start to rebuild momentum with the start of conference play.  The Hoosiers open the Big Ten season with road trips to Iowa City and State College before hosting Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Indiana won't play a team that is currently ranked until late January when they host Michigan State.  If IU can win through that schedule and move into their brutal February road schedule (Michigan, at Illinois, at Ohio State in consecutive games) with some momentum the Hoosiers have a chance to build themselves back up to contention for a #1 seed in the tournament.

3. Minnesota (12-1)I have to admit that I am not 100 percent comfortable with this placement.  It isn't just that I really dislike Minnesota either, I am not sure they are this good.  The Gophers only loss came to Duke on a neutral floor and they have out everyone they have played thus far except Memphis and Stanford (both on a neutral floor).  My problem is that their schedule hasn't exactly been a murderers row either.  Minnesota's numbers are due to the fact that they have beaten several high mid majors (Richmond, North Dakota State, South Dakota State) and a crappy Florida State team in the Big Ten/ACC challenge.  I still think they had a better non-conference season than the teams below them but with Michigan State, Northwestern, at Illinois, at Indiana, Michigan to start conference play I think the Gophers will probably end up lower than this when I do rankings again in two weeks.

4. Michigan State (11-2)This may seem a little odd, particularly considering the way this team has struggled against inferior opponents like Louisiana Lafayette and Bowling Green, but this has the potential to be a Big Ten title contending team.  Michigan State has shown flashes of brilliance; beating a hot Texas team recently and beating Kansas early in the year.  If the Spartans can get some consistency and start gelling as a team then this team will be right in the thick of the Big Ten title race again.  Tom Izzo's teams don't always get it perfect, and while I am not completely on the bandwagon, this team has all the ingredients of past Izzo squads that have had growing pains in non-conference only to turn it on in conference play.

5. Illinois (12-1)
The Illini got a wake up call Saturday in St. Louis against Mizzou.  Even if they are hitting an abnormally high percentage of their shots and are playing at warp speed, they will need to play defense to win.  I have a feeling Coach Groce will have this team ready to compete in the Big Ten but this team probably doesn't have the defensive presence to be a conference title contender.  The Illini have had moments of brilliance this year and two big wins over Butler (in Maui) and Gonzaga (in Spokane) but I think the grind of conference play is going to wear on this team late.

6. Ohio State (9-2)
Sure the Buckeyes have talent, but who have they beaten?  Losing to Duke by five in Cameron Indoor is excusable but getting blown out by Kansas at home raises a lot of questions about how good this team really is.  Sure, the Jayhawks and Blue Devils have looked liked National Title contenders, but when the rest of your schedule is made up of the sisters of the poor then you better win the two big games you play.  The Buckeyes don't play another ranked team until January 5th when they travel to Illinois. 

7. Iowa (11-2)
Iowa played a cupcake-filled schedule in the non-conference but they managed to split the four games against opponents with a pulse on their schedule and they have improved as the year has progressed.  This team is young so there will still be ups and downs but I think the Hawkeyes have a legitimate shot to be in the Big Dance for the first time in over half a decade.  The month of January is brutal for Iowa (eight games with half against ranked opponents and the others at NW, at Purdue, and at home against Wisconsin and Penn State) but if the Hawkeyes can manage 3-4 wins in that stretch they will be sitting pretty with only four more games against teams currently ranked after the first month of the year.


8. Wisconsin (8-4)
The Badgers look discombobulated without point guard Josh Gasser and they have struggled thus far in the season to find a groove against the top teams in the conference.  Losses to Florida, Creighton, Virginia, and Marquette are not terrible but the sum of those performances speaks volumes about the Badgers' ability to compete against the big boys right now.  Sure the wins against Cal and Arkansas were nice, but this team is going to struggle on the road in the Big Ten without better point guard play.

9. Northwestern (9-4)
While the narrative of the Wildcats finally earning their first NCAA tournament berth will probably stick around in the media, this probably won't be the Wildcats team to break the glass ceiling.  Losing Drew Crawford to a season ending injury only compacted the issues inherent with this team.  Northwestern is still looking for someone capable of duplicating John Shurna's presence in the post they just haven't found it yet.

10. Nebraska (8-4)
There is a significant drop off between this and the ninth spot on this list.  While teams like Northwestern, Iowa, and Wisconsin all look more than capable of at least threatening a few of the top teams in the rankings, the bottom three look like they would be outmatched by anyone ranked ninth or higher.  The bottom three are practically interchangeable but for the sake of making rankings that don't end in a three way tie I will put Nebraska here.  The Huskers have losses to Oregon, Creighton, Kent State, and UTEP.  While none of those are truly horrible, there is no indication that they are capable of winning games against teams with a pulse.  The Huskers will probably get an upset at home over someone like Wisconsin or Northwestern but I don't see them posing a real threat to anyone.

11. Purdue (5-6)
Yes the Boilers have the worst record in the Big Ten and are completely reliant on the three-point shot but I still think there is enough young talent on this team to scare some people late in the year.  Purdue has had some bad losses this year but they have the potential to upset some of the higher ranked teams on this list.  In the end though, while I think their ceiling is higher than Nebraska's, their floor is much lower (see Purdue's record).  With no semblance of consistency appearing on the horizon I can't justify putting them any higher.

12. Penn State (7-4)
Tim Frazier's injury which will cost him the season changed the complexion of this year for Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are struggling against the likes of Delaware State and Army (though they beat both teams) and there is no reason to believe they will be able to avoid the Big Ten cellar.  This is going to be a tough year for Pat Chambers' club, but they should be able to eek out a win or two at home in conference play.