An Early Look at the B1G

With the NFL Draft ending this past weekend we have a full four months without football.  Here are some early observations on the upcoming Big Ten season and a brief look at each team to look over while you wait for August.  Please note that the number of wins represents a reasonable best and worst case scenario, the real number of wins is anywhere between and including those two numbers.  I will do full previews of each team later this summer.
Leaders Division
The Leaders is clearly the weaker of the two Big Ten divisions on paper coming into this fall.  Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois each look like they will be taking a substantial step back from where they were last season, Indiana and Purdue haven't gone to bowl games since 2007, and Penn State remains a huge question mark.  This division could be very messy when all is said and done in 2011.


Illinois: The Illini replace a boatload of defenders inluding DT Corey Liuget and LB Martez Wilson.  Losing RB Mikel LeShoure could also really hurt this offense.  The Illini showed a lot of improvement last year but with a pretty big turnover on defense the onus is going to be to score a lot of points.  That is going to require the Illini to drastically improve their passing attack which was very pedestrian last year.
Number of Wins: Between 6-10

Indiana: The Hoosiers replace their head coach and bring in former Oklahoma offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson.  Wilson seems committed to running a similar offense to what he ran with the Sooners but is still trying to find a QB to run it.  He had four guys rotating during spring practice so this is likely going to be a competition that remains ongoing for a while.  The IU defense has been consistently terrible the past decade and if Wilson wants a bowl game his first year then there is going to have to be some pretty drastic improvement.
Number of wins: Between 2-6
Ohio State: The Buckeyes lose a bevy of players to graduation, including several standout defenders, have numerous players suspended for almost half the season or more, and are facing a head coaching controversy.  Even for a team like Ohio State this might be too much attrition to deal with.  The key to the season is how well the first eight games go.  If the backups on offense can keep the ship right and if the transition back to Pryor goes smoothly then they will be fine.  With so much turnover around them though that is a big if.
Number of wins: Between 7-11

Penn State: The good news is the defense looks pretty darn good.  The bad news is that the offense, outside of wide receiver, is a dumpster fire.  Nobody knows who the quarterback will be but none of the options look that good.  Evan Royster is gone and his replacement will be running behind and offensive line that still has to get back to the form it had in 2008.  The schedule doesn't do them many favors either with games against Alabama and Iowa to go along with a three game finishing kick of Nebraska, at Ohio State, at Wisconsin.
Number of wins: Between 5-9

Purdue: There are a number of experienced guys coming back but how long will they stay healthy?  The Boilers have had a bad string of luck injury wise the past few years and that will have to right itself in order for them to go bowling.  Even then, the talent along the offensive and defensive line doesn't wow me and they are going to have to figure out how to rush the passer without all world DE Ryan Kerrigen.
Number of wins: Between 3-8

Wisconsin: The Badgers will still be able to run the ball but, as always, their ability to determine how they do everything else will determine how they finish the season.  Scott Tolzein was a very strong passer who kept defenses honest and several of his favorite targets depart with him.  The defense also losses DE JJ Watt and some multi year starters from a secondary that wasn't that great in the first place.  Unless the passing game can find a slew of new playmakers and the defense can find replacements for some solid players, the Badgers are going to fall back to their usual yearly trips to Florida bowls or worse.
Number of Wins: Between 6-9

Legends Division
The Legends Division is total crapshoot coming into 2011.  None of these teams were completely happy with their 2011 season but there is a lot of potential and a lot of unknown.  This could very well be six good teams beating the crap out of each other this year.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes lose several starters on offense but most look replaceable.  The line should be strong and the running back and receiving corps don't look half bad.  If it all clicks, the offense could be really good.  The pressure will be on new starting QB James Vandenberg to keep the offense humming because the defense looks very raw.  The defensive line losses three starters and the linebackers are still very young.  The secondary is more athletic than in years past but the issue of experience is still there.  The Hawkeyes have a history of putting together some nasty defenses, and if they can do that again this year they will surprise a lot of people.  That might be too tall a task though with the slew of new faces being shuffled in and if the talent on offense doesn't click things will go bad really fast. 
Number of Wins: Between 4-10

Michigan: Brady Hoke is bringing some swagger back to Ann Arbor and there is a lot to like about the guys returning on offense.  Denard Robinson returns at quarterback and has plenty of experienced targets to throw to.  The running back situation will be interesting to follow but a creative coordinator should be able to get plenty out of the pieces on this side of the ball.  The defense is just the opposite.  This might be the least talented and most inexperienced Michigan defense ever fielded and even with former Ravens Defensive Coordinator Greg Mattison the Wolverines are going to struggle on that side of the ball.  The schemes and coaching are there for a surprise run but the question is if the talent can bring it home.
Number of wins: Between 4-9

Michigan State: The Spartans return some solid talent on offense and are proven enough to be very dangerous.  However the defensive secondary is still a question along with linebacker.  Also, how much of last season was a best case scenario for Sparty and will they fall back to a record that is more representative of their talent?  The schedule doesn't do them many favors with Notre Dame, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern all on the road.
Number of wins: Between 6-10

Minnesota: The Gophers fell way back in 2011 and new HC Jerry Kill certinly has his work cut out for him.  The skill positions have some intriguing talent but until the defense and offensive line can step up it won't matter.  There is potential for a surprise season but there is also potential for a pretty horrible season.  This team is going to be hard to peg until we know more about how Coach Kill's offense clicks with the players and if this defense can stop anyone.  The conference schedule is brutal as the Gophers miss Indiana and Penn State and play Purdue on the road early.  Oh, and their first game is on the road against USC.
Number of wins: Between 3-7

Nebraska: The Huskers certainly have plenty of talent on the defensive line and there are several skill position players who have the potential to be very exciting.  Big Red does have concerns however, especially on offense.  Will Taylor Martinez be effective for a whole year and can he hold on to the starting QB job?  How will the offensive line fair after losing several starters? Will Rex Burkhead be an effective running back in the Big Ten despite being relatively undersized?  How will the defensive backfield fair after losing a slew of stud players for the second year in a row?  The talent is certainly there but the question is whether it can click and if some of the Big XII style players can be effective in the new conference.
Number of wins: Between 7-12

Northwestern: NW returns a slew of starter and could be a darkhorse in the Legends division title race.  However, they remain perilously thin at several positions and have a few glaring weaknesses.  The lack of a consistent RB and pass rush are both pretty big and could hamper NW's ability to compete against the likes of Nebraska.  The schedule is manageable but unless this team can significantly improve and stay healthy then they will remain in the lower middle of the Big Ten again this year.
Number of wins: Between 5-9