Thursday, December 27, 2012

Big Ten Conference Power Rankings: Start of Conference Play

New this year, the Big Ten basketball Power Rankings will come out once a month during the preseason (once in November and once in December) and every week during the Big Ten season. 

1. Michigan (12-0)
The Wolverines are the only unbeaten team remaining in the Big Ten and, while they may not have played the most grueling schedule in the conference, they have had enough impressive wins to make this spot a given.  Big Blue has looked downright dominant at times and I will have to eat some crow as they are more than deserving of their preseason ranking.  In this season of college basketball where there doesn't look to be one or two completely dominant teams (a la Kentucky last season) Michigan has an opportunity to make a run to the Final Four and, just maybe, the National Title.

2. Indiana (11-1)
IU had a tough loss against Butler in overtime but this is a team that can really start to rebuild momentum with the start of conference play.  The Hoosiers open the Big Ten season with road trips to Iowa City and State College before hosting Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Indiana won't play a team that is currently ranked until late January when they host Michigan State.  If IU can win through that schedule and move into their brutal February road schedule (Michigan, at Illinois, at Ohio State in consecutive games) with some momentum the Hoosiers have a chance to build themselves back up to contention for a #1 seed in the tournament.

3. Minnesota (12-1)I have to admit that I am not 100 percent comfortable with this placement.  It isn't just that I really dislike Minnesota either, I am not sure they are this good.  The Gophers only loss came to Duke on a neutral floor and they have out everyone they have played thus far except Memphis and Stanford (both on a neutral floor).  My problem is that their schedule hasn't exactly been a murderers row either.  Minnesota's numbers are due to the fact that they have beaten several high mid majors (Richmond, North Dakota State, South Dakota State) and a crappy Florida State team in the Big Ten/ACC challenge.  I still think they had a better non-conference season than the teams below them but with Michigan State, Northwestern, at Illinois, at Indiana, Michigan to start conference play I think the Gophers will probably end up lower than this when I do rankings again in two weeks.

4. Michigan State (11-2)This may seem a little odd, particularly considering the way this team has struggled against inferior opponents like Louisiana Lafayette and Bowling Green, but this has the potential to be a Big Ten title contending team.  Michigan State has shown flashes of brilliance; beating a hot Texas team recently and beating Kansas early in the year.  If the Spartans can get some consistency and start gelling as a team then this team will be right in the thick of the Big Ten title race again.  Tom Izzo's teams don't always get it perfect, and while I am not completely on the bandwagon, this team has all the ingredients of past Izzo squads that have had growing pains in non-conference only to turn it on in conference play.

5. Illinois (12-1)
The Illini got a wake up call Saturday in St. Louis against Mizzou.  Even if they are hitting an abnormally high percentage of their shots and are playing at warp speed, they will need to play defense to win.  I have a feeling Coach Groce will have this team ready to compete in the Big Ten but this team probably doesn't have the defensive presence to be a conference title contender.  The Illini have had moments of brilliance this year and two big wins over Butler (in Maui) and Gonzaga (in Spokane) but I think the grind of conference play is going to wear on this team late.

6. Ohio State (9-2)
Sure the Buckeyes have talent, but who have they beaten?  Losing to Duke by five in Cameron Indoor is excusable but getting blown out by Kansas at home raises a lot of questions about how good this team really is.  Sure, the Jayhawks and Blue Devils have looked liked National Title contenders, but when the rest of your schedule is made up of the sisters of the poor then you better win the two big games you play.  The Buckeyes don't play another ranked team until January 5th when they travel to Illinois. 

7. Iowa (11-2)
Iowa played a cupcake-filled schedule in the non-conference but they managed to split the four games against opponents with a pulse on their schedule and they have improved as the year has progressed.  This team is young so there will still be ups and downs but I think the Hawkeyes have a legitimate shot to be in the Big Dance for the first time in over half a decade.  The month of January is brutal for Iowa (eight games with half against ranked opponents and the others at NW, at Purdue, and at home against Wisconsin and Penn State) but if the Hawkeyes can manage 3-4 wins in that stretch they will be sitting pretty with only four more games against teams currently ranked after the first month of the year.


8. Wisconsin (8-4)
The Badgers look discombobulated without point guard Josh Gasser and they have struggled thus far in the season to find a groove against the top teams in the conference.  Losses to Florida, Creighton, Virginia, and Marquette are not terrible but the sum of those performances speaks volumes about the Badgers' ability to compete against the big boys right now.  Sure the wins against Cal and Arkansas were nice, but this team is going to struggle on the road in the Big Ten without better point guard play.

9. Northwestern (9-4)
While the narrative of the Wildcats finally earning their first NCAA tournament berth will probably stick around in the media, this probably won't be the Wildcats team to break the glass ceiling.  Losing Drew Crawford to a season ending injury only compacted the issues inherent with this team.  Northwestern is still looking for someone capable of duplicating John Shurna's presence in the post they just haven't found it yet.

10. Nebraska (8-4)
There is a significant drop off between this and the ninth spot on this list.  While teams like Northwestern, Iowa, and Wisconsin all look more than capable of at least threatening a few of the top teams in the rankings, the bottom three look like they would be outmatched by anyone ranked ninth or higher.  The bottom three are practically interchangeable but for the sake of making rankings that don't end in a three way tie I will put Nebraska here.  The Huskers have losses to Oregon, Creighton, Kent State, and UTEP.  While none of those are truly horrible, there is no indication that they are capable of winning games against teams with a pulse.  The Huskers will probably get an upset at home over someone like Wisconsin or Northwestern but I don't see them posing a real threat to anyone.

11. Purdue (5-6)
Yes the Boilers have the worst record in the Big Ten and are completely reliant on the three-point shot but I still think there is enough young talent on this team to scare some people late in the year.  Purdue has had some bad losses this year but they have the potential to upset some of the higher ranked teams on this list.  In the end though, while I think their ceiling is higher than Nebraska's, their floor is much lower (see Purdue's record).  With no semblance of consistency appearing on the horizon I can't justify putting them any higher.

12. Penn State (7-4)
Tim Frazier's injury which will cost him the season changed the complexion of this year for Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are struggling against the likes of Delaware State and Army (though they beat both teams) and there is no reason to believe they will be able to avoid the Big Ten cellar.  This is going to be a tough year for Pat Chambers' club, but they should be able to eek out a win or two at home in conference play.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Big Ten-ACC Challenge Preview

This is my quick and dirty rundown of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge.  I was going to do something a bit more in depth but time is a bear right now so this will have to do.  Forgive my overuse of RPI, I know it isn't the greatest indicator of anything but since I am short on time I don't have the ability to look up all the stats I would want for this.  All times listed are EST.

Tuesday

Iowa at Virginia Tech ESPNU 7:15pm
The Hokies are sporting a 5-0 record but it isn't as great as it looks.  Virginia Tech has not played anyone in the RPI top 150 and only two of their wins have come against teams in with an RPI above 200.  THe Hokies have done well statistically against this slate (top 10 scoring in the country, 49th in assists, and 34th in FG%) but the number to watch is rebounds where the Hokies are 96th in the country despite their cushy schedule.  Iowa, meanwhile, comes into this game having played four games against teams with better RPI's than Virginia Tech's opponents and having three wins over teams with a better RPI than Virginia Tech. I mentioned rebounding before and Iowa is 58th in the country.  That isn't a huge difference (40 per game to VT's 38.2) but considering who each team has played it is certainly going to be worth watching.  The Hokies are led by guard Erick Green and forward Jarell Eddie who are both three point shooting threats.  If Iowa can keep Tech off the boards (also worth mentioning is that the Hokies largest player is a 6' 10" freshman who averages 14.2 minutes per game) I think the Hawkeyes will roll the no-longer-fighting-Seth-Greenberg's.
Pick: Iowa

Minnesota at Florida State ESPN2 7:15pm
The Gophers are ranked with their only loss coming to Duke.  Minnesota has the better RPI (28) and is in the top 100 nationally in PPG (95th) RPG (49th) APG (41st) and FG% (61st).  Meanwhile the Seminoles lone loss was a week one upset against South Alabama where the Jaguars shot lights out from three.  Since then Florida State has beaten two top 50 RPI opponents and ranks 12th in FG% and 26th in PPG nationally.  While Florida State may not be quite as impressive on paper, they are really hot right now and I think they should be able to dictate tempo at home and grab a nice victory over the Gophers.
Pick: Florida State

North Carolina State at Michigan ESPN 7:30pm
This pick doesn't need much elaboration.  Michigan is statistically better in each of the major statistical categories and has been dominant in nearly every game this season (only Pitt came close to beating the Wolverines).  NC State has played a tougher schedule but they were blown out by Oklahoma State and nearly lost to a bad UNC-Asheville team.  Michigan should win this game comfortably in Ann Arbor.
Pick: Michigan

Nebraska at Wake Forest ESPNU 9:15pm
Easily the dog of the week.  Wake Forest was blown out by Iona and Nebraska lost at home to Kent State.  These teams are both pretty bad.  Statistically Wake Forest is slightly better but RPI says the Huskers are better.  I trust statistics a little more (though they aren't terribly different at this point in the season) and the Demon Deacons are at home.  When in doubt, take the home team.
Pick: Wake Forest

Maryland at Northwestern ESPN2 9:15pm
This is really simple.  One of these teams was three points away from defeating Kentucky, the defending national champions.  The other needed over time to beat Illinois State by three.  Maryland will win this one and it will not be close.  It would have been a lot more interesting to have Maryland match up with Michigan State and put Northwestern against Miami since the match ups we have look very lopsided.
Pick: Maryland

North Carolina at Indiana ESPN 9:30pm
Even if North Carolina plays extremely well and is in a position to win this game, will the officials let them (hey, it's a fair question in Bloomington)?   In all seriousness though, this is going to be worth staying up for as both teams are statistically dominating opponents.  The discrepency is that Indiana has played a tougher schedule and has beaten a few good teams this year.  Even though the Butler loss probably won't end up defining this UNC team, it is hard to look past that since there really isn't anything on the Tar Heels' resume at this point that really impresses.  That isn't their fault (the Maui invitational was incredibly strange this year) but it is still a fact.  I like Indiana in this game but this is going to be a really exciting match.
Pick: Indiana

Friday

Virginia at Wisconsin ESPN2 7pm
This season hasn't been kind to either team so far.  Virginia was derailed early by George Mason and Delaware and are statistically one of the worst offensive teams in the country.  Wisconsin is still trying to fill the PG role left by Gasser's ACL tear and the early results have been disappointing with losses to ranked Florida and Creighton squads.  Still, I like the Badgers in this game for two reasons.  One, they are statistically a much better team and have played an exponentially tougher schedule to date than Virginia.  Second, unranked teams coming in to the Kohl Center have historically been almost guaranteed victories for Wisconsin. 
Pick: Wisconsin

Purdue at Clemson ESPNU 7:15pm
The Boilermakers have had an incredibly rough start to the season with losses to Villanova, Oregon State, and Bucknell.  While there is talent on this Purdue squad, it really hasn't seemed to hit its' stride on offense and the defense still isn't quite up to the normal standard for Purdue.  Clemson's only loss was to a ranked Gonzaga squad but the rest of the Tigers' wins have been against sub 200 RPI squads.  This is a really tough call since I think Purdue has a little more talent than Clemson, but I have a hard time picking this team to win on the road.  I am going with Purdue, better statistically and more battle tested than this Clemson team.
Pick: Purdue

Michigan State at Miami ESPN 7:30pm
The other truly lopsided match up in this year's challenge.  Sparty has coasted over their last few games but this is still a very talented team that is more than capable of going on the road and beating up a Miami team who lost to Florida Gulf Coast.  The Hurricanes have not played anyone really noteworthy this season either while Michigan State has already played Connecticut and Kansas.
Pick: Michigan State

Georgia Tech at Illinois ESPN2 9pmThis actually looked like an interesting game before the season started, but with Illinois playing the way they have been to start the season there is no way I see Georgia Tech winning this.  Illinois looked downright dominant at times in Maui and have gone from a team everyone assumed would be in rebuilding mode to one of the most dangerous teams in the Big Ten.  The Ramblin Wreck isn't bad but they aren't good enough to win on the road in one of the most hostile basketball venues in the country.
Pick: Illinois

Boston College at Penn State ESPNU 9:15pm
Wow, it's almost as if ESPN knew that the PSU-BC and UNL-WF games would be terrible.  The 9:15 ESPNU slot is the resting place for the worst teams in the challenge and these squads both deserve that distinction. Boston College has already lost four games this season (Baylor, Dayton, Charleston, and Bryant) and they only squeaked past Auburn by one point at home.  Penn State lost their best player, Tim Frazier, for the season and are only hobbling along at this point, boasting one of the worst offenses in the nation.  I am going to take BC on the road simply because I think they have a significantly better offense and that will be enough to push them past the relatively inept Nittany Lions.

Pick: Boston College

Ohio State at Duke ESPN 9:30pm
The challenge concludes with this match up (though Illinois' victory will have sewn up the Big Ten's fifth consecutive victory well before this is over) and it is a dandy.  Ohio State comes in ranked fourth in the country and Duke is second.  The Buckeyes are untested so far this year while Duke has already played Kentucky and Maryland.  Frankly, even though people might see this as the biggest match up of the challenge when they see where each team is ranked, I don't think this is a very difficult pick.  Duke is the better team and they are playing at home in front of the Cameron Crazies.  Ohio State is still a good team but this just seems like an obvious win for the Blue Devils for me.
Pick: Duke

Conference:
Big Ten - 7

ACC - 5

Friday, November 9, 2012

Preseason Big Ten Basketball Power Rankings

New this year, the Big Ten basketball Power Rankings will come out once a month during the preseason (once in November and once in December) and every week during the Big Ten season. 

1. Indiana
The AP Poll has them at #1 in the country and, at least for now, I don't see any reason to disagree.  Cody Zeller leads a deep, talented, and experienced Indiana squad that should be a lock for the Final Four.  Still, the Hoosiers need to play better on defense if they are going to live up to the massive amount of hype they are bringing into this season.

2. Ohio State
Again, nothing special here.  The Buckeyes are #4 nationally and, while they did lose Jared Sullinger, are on paper the most likely team to challenge the Hoosiers for the Big Ten crown.  Key to this season is sophomore Amir Williams who was one of the team's best rebounders in limited minutes from a year ago.  If Williams can continue to dominate the boards and develop an offensive presence then the Buckeyes may be back in the Final Four.

3. Michigan State
This is where it starts to get tricky.  While I concede the SparWtans may have a rough go of it in the non conference slate with games against Connecticut (on Friday), Kansas, Miami, and Texas, this team always seems to gel in time for the Big Ten slate.  The question all off season was how this team will play without leader Draymond Green but I think Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne step up in the front court and the team will get a boost as soon as Branden Dawson returns to full strength.  They might not look terrific early, but I think this team will turn it on in time for conference play and challenge the top two.

4. Wisconsin
Bo Ryan has never finished outside the top four in the conference during his time in Madison and even with a season ending injury to starting point guard Josh Gasser I am not going to pick against the Badgers.  Obviously Gasser is the main story line at this point but I think there is enough talent in the front court to keep this team upright so that whoever steps in at the point will not be counted on to carry the team.  This is another team that will struggle early, particularly with Mike Brusewitz out for a few games with a leg laceration.

5. Michigan
There will probably be some disagreement here.  The Wolverines are more talented than ever under John Beilein with Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke back along with a highly touted recruiting class.  While this may be positive for Michigan in terms of rebounding and defense, anyone who knows the system Beilein has installed in Ann Arbor has to be a little concerned about the lack of outside shooting.  This team lost three of its best perimeter shooters to graduation and their production is going to be difficult to replace.  I think Michigan is a year away from really setting the conference on fire.

6. Minnesota
The return of Trevor Mbakwe his legal follies have grabbed most of the off season headlines but the real reason to buy into this team is their depth in the back court.  Andre Hollins averaged 16.6 points per game in March last season and he leads what should be a five man rotation in the back court.  The glaring problem is the post where Mbakwe is the only offensive weapon of note.  This team died in he post last season but with their star forward back and with the conference not being particularly strong up front the Gophers should be able to manage a strong finish in the Big Ten.

7. Iowa
The Hawkeyes will likely feature a 10-11 man rotation this season and have some exciting new talent with freshmen Adam Woodbury and Mike Gessell.  Still, this is a very young team with only one senior and there will be growing pains.  If this team can limit their bad losses (i.e. Nebraska, Penn State, Campbell) they should easily be on the NCAA tournament bubble which would set up a huge 2013 season when the Hawkeyes might develop into a legitimate Big Ten title contender.

8. Purdue
This is a rebuilding season for the Boilers and they will need several of last years role players (particularly DJ Byrd) to step up and take leadership of a freshman led squad.   To make matters more difficult, this is a team that will have to relearn the program's hallmark defensive mentality which was absent last year (Purdue finished in the bottom half of the conference on defense last season).  However, there is a lot of potential on this team and if Purdue can build some momentum in the non-conference (which won't be easy thanks to games against Villanova, Clemson, Xavier, and Notre Dame) this team could be very dangerous during conference play.

9. Northwestern
The good news is that the Wildcats return a solid nucleus with Drew Crawford, Dave Sobolewski, and Alex Marcotullio and they get Louisville transfer Jared Swoopshire who is a solid shot blocking forward.  The problem is that they lose John Shurna, Luka Mirkovic, and David Curletti to graduation and Jershonn Cobb to a season long suspension.  This team is going to be thin and relatively young in the front court which does not bode well for a school that was arguably the worst rebounding team in the conference and one of the worst in FG% defense.  The Wildcats could finish higher but I expect them to struggle this season as their young players learn to compete in the Big Ten.

10. Illinois
The Illini have a new head coach in John Groce and some talent still on the roster but there is a lot of rebuilding to be done in Champaign.  Do everything center Miles Leonard is gone and this team will be relying on a slew of new faces both in the front court and to build depth on what was not a particularly deep team last year.  The Illini simply weren't very productive on offense last season and without Leonard there is a huge question as to who will be generating points for them on a consistent basis.  This is probably the toughest team to pick since, based solely on raw talent, Illinois could jump as high as sixth or seventh.  The schedule isn't terrible (only one game against Michigan State, Iowa, Indiana, and Penn State) but I feel like Northwestern has a better chance of being consistent this season given the youth movement the Illini will be enduring.

11. Penn State
Tim Frazier returns as the teams top offensive threat but there are several new faces on this team that will need to step up for the Nittany Lions to get out of the conference basement this season.  I feel like this team would actually be pretty dangerous in most other conferences but the Big Ten is just so deep that I believe this team, while they will certainly not be an easy out for many teams, just won't be able to put a run together that would place them higher in the standings.

12. Nebraska
Only one returning starter and a new head coach.  This is a pretty easy pick as the Huskers have a better chance of going win-less in conference than they do finishing higher than this.  Tim Miles was a great hire and he should be have the Huskers competing in the next few years but this is going to be a slower rebuilding job as Nebraska has been struggling on the recruiting trail.  The Huskers will need to grab developmental guys and hope they pan out in two or three years from now but that means they may have a few rough seasons in the immediate future in the incredibly deep Big Ten.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Revised Stadium Rankings

Since I last did my stadium rankings I have added Florida and Florida State to my list of places I have visited and my criteria for ranking the stadiums has been tweaked a little bit.  As a result, these rankings vary a little bit from my previous version.  Just as a refresher, I primarily value overall stadium quality and atmosphere but I do give consideration to the location of the venue, tailgating, and other things to do around town. 

1. Michigan Stadium (Michigan)
Ann Arbor was tied with Wisconsin for first in my initial rankings but they are now all alone at the top.  Amazing atmosphere, fantastic tailgating, and one of college football's best stadiums make this a no brainer.  The only complaint I have about Michigan is that, if you are sitting in the corners, it can seem like you are a long way from the action (and technically, you are).  However, I don't feel as though this really detracts since the view isn't obstructed and the effect isn't debilitating so you still can tell what is going on in the game.  Pretty easily the best stadium I have ever visited.

2. Ohio Stadium (Ohio State)
The Horseshoe is hot on the heels of the Big House in my opinion.  Rabid fans, a massive tailgating scene, and one of the most iconic stadiums in the sport make it a must see.  However, there are two small details that keep it behind Michigan.  First is the presence of obstructed view seats which, if you are unlucky enough to be put in one of them, are about as bad as obstructed view seats can get.  Second is the town itself.  Columbus just doesn't have that college town feel.  The city as a whole feels more like a metropolis with a college that just so happens to be inside.  While this means there is plenty to do in C-bus, there is something about those small college town atmospheres that makes the game atmosphere feel more focused and intense than in a major city where you could walk a few blocks from campus and find someone who might not know there is a game going on (let alone who the home team is playing).  Still, I am nitpicking here.  This is a really awesome place to visit and the city is pretty neat if you have time to look around.

3. Beaver Stadium (Penn State)
They were originally fifth on my list but the more I consider it the more I can't help but wonder why I put them that far down.  The campus is gorgeous and I highly recommend spending time there.  If you have time, the Nittany Lion Inn and the creamery are both good places to stop by and, while there didn't seem to be as many or as quality bars and restaurants as Madison, there is plenty if you are just spending a football weekend.  For game day, the tailgating is fantastic and the fans are extremely nice.  The stadium itself is ugly as sin and can be mildly annoying to navigate because some of the concourses are disjointed (it isn't horrible but can be a little frustrating at times).  Also the student section shows up late.  However the atmosphere is truly electric and even for lower level league games the crowd manages to create a fairly intense atmosphere.

4. Kinnick Stadium (Iowa)
Maybe a slight homer pick but when it comes to atmosphere Iowa is a great sleeper.  Not many stadiums get as consistently electric of an atmosphere as Kinnick and while Iowa may not match Penn State or Ohio State when it comes to the big games, they make up for it by keeping a high energy level for the non marquee contests.  The stadium is simple with no bad seats and an architectural style that, while maybe not as iconic as Michigan or Ohio State, is not an eyesore.  Iowa City has more than its fair share of bars (only Madison rivals Iowa in terms of alcohol consumption per capita) and there are restaurants aren't bad either.  The tailgating can be great but for noon games it drops off a bit more than other schools. 

5. Camp Randall Stadium (Wisconsin)
Madison was much higher on my initial rankings but two things really brought it down.  The first is consistency.  Big games are really special in Wisconsin but those noon games just don't get the same atmosphere.  Still, the town is incredible and it is worth visiting even if there isn't a sporting event going on.  Camp Randal isn't the greatest architecturally but is has historical value and the sight lines are good.  Overall a good experience but it just doesn't have the consistent atmosphere to put it in the top four.

6. Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Florida)
Prior to kickoff in my visit to the Swamp I was ready to put it right at or near the top of this list.  The fans are phenomenal, the tailgating is exceptional, the stadium itself is very nice and easy to navigate, and there are a solid number of options for drinking and eating outside the stadium (though they are expensive).  Add into that the fact that the nearby BYOB spring where you can cool off in the water while enjoying some adult beverages and outside of the game this stadium has everything you could possibly ask for.  The problem is that the game matters most, and I was pretty disappointed by the game atmosphere for Florida.  Way too many empty seats and a pretty ho hum crowd made for a less than energetic atmosphere.  I know the Gators lost the week prior and the offense isn't exactly setting the world on fire, but the Missouri fans in the stadium were far more energetic than the lethargic Gator crowd.  It was almost incredible, outside the stadium there was plenty of energy but once inside a malaise set in and the crowd just seemed bored.  Don't get me wrong, Florida has potential to be really special for big games and I would recommend a visit to anyone in the state, but Ben Hill Griffin is the state of Florida's equivalent to Camp Randall except Wisconsin you would be hard pressed to find that many empty seats at a Wisconsin game when the Badgers have only one loss.

7. Memorial Stadium (Nebraska)
On its face putting Nebraska here may seem weird, but while the first six are all really close together in my mind, there is a pretty significant drop off from Florida to Nebraska.  Lincoln isn't a bad town but it isn't terribly exciting.  The tailgating takes place under a freeway over pass and, in terms of both quality and volume, is not even close to any of the six stadiums above it.  The stadium itself is a pain in the butt to navigate.  God forbid you have a weak bladder and are seated near the top because you will be going up and down about four to five stories worth of narrow ramps all game.   The fans are generally content to sit and watch in relative silence as long as the Huskers are winning.  It doesn't take much to quiet the crowd and there were times when I wondered if people were leaving that I couldn't see.  For a bigger game I am sure it gets louder but for a conference game that was one of the tamest atmospheres I have ever encountered.  While Nebraska certainly has better (or at least more consistent) attendance than Florida, there is no redeeming quality to the bad atmosphere for most non-marquee games in Lincoln since the tailgating and atmosphere outside the stadium at places like Gainesville or Iowa City just aren't present at Nebraska.

 8. Doak S. Campbell Stadium (Florida State)
 Tallahassee is not a college town.  Like Columbus or Minneapolis it feels like a city with a college next to it.  Making matters worse is that, as a city, Tallahassee is kind of dirty and it can get kinda rough in some of the neighborhoods close to campus.  The campus itself is pretty but outside of taking a walk there isn't much to do on game day.  Tailgating is poor and there aren't really any great places to eat or drink close to the stadium.  The stadium is nice with good sight lines but unless the Seminoles are playing a rivalry game there are going to be huge swaths of empty seats.  The fans inside get into the game but unless it is a marquee game you will get a mass exodus at half time when most of the student section and many alums decide that watching the rest of the game would be more fun with air conditioning.  It can be pretty electric for big games but it doesn't have the upside of any of the elite teams.  Overall unless the opponent is a big name school or a rival like Miami or Clemson then you probably aren't missing anything.

9. Memorial Stadium (Illinois)
Champagne isn't the greatest college town in the world but it hosts a nice football game.  No the Illini aren't always good but when they are decent this is a solid place to spend a Saturday.  The tailgating is pretty good and there are enough good bars and restaurants in the city to keep you occupied for a game weekend.  The stadium sucks, with bad sight lines and some obstructed view seats to go with what has to be the worst traffic control known to mRossan.  The atmosphere is decent and there are several little traditions that are unique to Illinois that make it interesting.  No it isn't in the same league as any of the stadiums above it but Memorial Stadium has a solid atmosphere with several interesting traditions that make it worth visiting.

10. Jack Trice Stadium (Iowa State)
I am just going to copy and paste my previous write up since I don't have anything else to say. 

"First off, Ames sucks.  There are a couple good places to go there but the campus is unspectacular and your options are limited.  This is second only to Evanston in terms of bad bar availability.  The tailgating around Jack Trice is pretty good and, while Cyclones can be particularly hostile to Hawkeyes, their fans tend to be nice enough that you would never feel too threatened.  The stadium itself is a piece of crap, aesthetically my least favorite of all the ones I have been to.  Yet, this is more about atmosphere than anything else and I have to tip my hat to Cyclone fans who generate a very loud, very energized stadium atmosphere.  There are a lot of crappy stadiums at the bottom of this list but ISU passes them for having an extremely higher level of passion both inside and outside the stadium on game day. I wouldn't recommend it, but if you are looking to visit a lot of stadiums you can turn a trip to Jack Trice into a very nice weekend if you try."

11. TCF Bank Stadium (Minnesota)
In my original preview I wrote, "Minnesota is the anti-Iowa State.  Good facility, nice city, but a crappy atmosphere around game day".  I stand by that.  I tend to think this stadium is overrated in the media.  Having actually sat in that facility I can say that it was a pretty miserable experience.  The fans are fair weather and the only real atmosphere is the annoyingly loud prodding of their PA guy who is easily the most obnoxious of any stadium I have ever been to.  Minneapolis is alright (Dinkytown blows) but like I said, this is mostly about atmosphere and Minnesota's is just bad.

12. Memorial Stadium (Indiana)
Oh Indiana.  It isn't a bad place to see a game but it certainly isn't a must-see locale.  The stadium itself is very aesthetically pleasing and is easy enough to navigate.  There is some solid tailgating but many of the fans chose to stay outside with their grills rather than actually attend the game so you always see empty seats.  The addition of the playground under the video board in the open end zone bothers me since a bunch of kids running around on one side of the field makes the whole thing feel like a giant day-care/ The students make noise and there are moments where it actually starts to feel like a real football atmosphere but most of the time the Hoosiers aren't much fun to watch and the stadium empties early.  Not terrible but pretty darn close to it.

13. Ross Ade Stadium (Purdue)
West Lafayette isn't a bad town and there are some decent food or drink options.  That is the only positive thing I have to say about Purdue.  Terrible stadium with bad sight lines and an incredibly flat atmosphere.  There really isn't any good tailgating to speak of around the stadium .  Just overall a really bad place to watch a football game.

14. Dyche Stadium (Northwestern)
They say a picture is worth a thousand words.  While I could write more than a few harsh criticisms of the crappy stadium with bad sight lines, the non-existent pregame atmosphere, or the general high school feel to the games, I am just going to put up a picture from the Northwestern student section taken during their last home game against Iowa.

Original_medium

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Week 10 Bowl Picks



Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:


1) National Championship

2) National Championship

3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick

4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Kansas State v. Oregon
Yeah you read it right.  KSU doesn't look like they will be challenged from here on out with the rest of their games coming against the middle and lower half of the conference.  Oregon has USC next week but I think they can come out of the Coliseum with a W and from then on the only rough game is a road trip to Corvallis where they face their in state rivals. 
Rose Bowl: Nebraska v. Oregon State
The Huskers are the in the front seat for the trip to the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis and, while there are still challenges  ahead for Huskers (next week's trip to East Lansing being a prime example), they have to be the front runner for the conferences' Rose Bowl bid. I have struggled with the Beavers all year.  I am near certain they are a 9-3 team, but so was 2007 Illinois and they got in the Rose Bowl anyway.  At the end of the day it comes down to what at-large teams are also available and I think the Rose committee goes with the traditional Big Ten-Pac12 match up.  I am not very confident on this at all.
Sugar Bowl: Georgia v. Oklahoma
The Bulldogs face the LSU Tigers in the SEC Championship Game and I have them winning that contest.  That puts the conference in a tough spot with this bowl bid since they obviously aren't going to get Alabama or Notre Dame. Barring a loss to West Virginia the Sooners should end up here (if the Mountaineers win then they will be here). 
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame v. Alabama
With the first replacement pick for the National Championship Game the selection committee tabs the Irish.  As good as they looked last night I still don't see them finishing undefeated but they should still be in the BCS at the end of the year.  The Fiesta Bowl also has the first at large selection and with it they nab the Crimson Tide.  If the Rose Bowl doesn't go with Oregon State and takes Bama then this is probably going to be Clemson and Oklahoma would face Georgia in the Sugar Bowl (If the Rose nabs Oklahoma then the Sugar Bowl would feature Clemson).  Just throwing this out there, I had this as my Fiesta Bowl in the preseason.
 
Orange Bowl: Florida State v. Louisville
Even if the Cardinals do manage to go undefeated I don't see them ending up in the National Title game.  If Louisville does go unbeaten they will more likely be taken by the Sugar Bowl where they will face the SEC champion but I think they will drop one somewhere and end up where I have had them all year.  Florida State is just sitting here waiting for teams to fall around them.  I just don't see it happening and the Noles get a consolation prize with a BCS bowl game in their rival's home stadium.
Capital One Bowl: Michigan v.LSU
I generally avoid picking teams to go to the same bowl game twice in a row but Nebraska in this situation is an obvious exception to the rule.  The Huskers will travel well to the same bowl game two years in a row and are the obvious no. 2 of the Bowl eligible teams. The Tigers loss in the SEC title game knocks them out of the BCS but the Capital One Bowl is more than happy to pick up the Tigers and their Cajun fans who have given this bowl game two of its most classic contests.
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin v. Florida
Who else?  Wisconsin hasn't been to Tampa in a while (the 2007 season to be exact) and the Gators are going to finish with double digit wins (I have them losing to FSU).  The Badgers will be a reluctant pick but it is them or Northwestern and, well, the Wildcats aren't exactly setting the world on fire in terms of attendance and television ratings. 



Gator Bowl: Northwestern v. South Carolina
Northwestern is the obvious last man standing (unless they get picked up by the Outback Bowl) of the non 6-6 Big Ten teams and South Carolina is clearly ahead of alternate selections Ole Miss and Tennessee (check out my explanation of the Chick-Fil-A bowl to see why I don't have Texas A&M here).  This is probably a mismatch on paper but this could potentially be a pretty high scoring bowl game.




 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Michigan State v. West Virginia

The Mountaineers are sort of the obvious selection here with Texas and Texas Tech both going ahead of them in the bowl selection order.  This might actually be a sneaky good bowl game as Dana Holgerson's squad faces a legit defense and the Spartans take on a beatable WVU squad with time to prepare. Possible echoes of the 2009 Alamo Bowl where the Spartans had a shootout with Texas Tech.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: Iowa v. TCU
Don't ask me to explain how right now because I am just not sure, but my gut says Iowa somehow gets six wins and head to Houston to take on TCU.  I strongly considered putting Iowa behind Minnesota, but knowing Iowa fans, the mood in Iowa City will improve enough in the process of getting to six wins that it won't bother bowl execs too much. TCU hasn't moved in a while and I still feel pretty confident that this is their Final Destination (cheap unfunny Halloween movie reference). 



Heart of Dallas Bowl: Minnesota v. Louisiana Tech
I don't think Conference USA will fill this bowl and that leaves it ope to an at-large selection.  Louisiana Tech will want a game against a BCS conference team and this (or the Liberty Bowl) would be their best opportunity.  No the Gophers at 6-6 aren't a high cache team, but this bowl game drew a lot of headlines with the Penn State-Houston tilt last year and they might try to replicate that success with these two teams.
Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl:Toledo v. San Jose State
Toledo is selected here as the MAC Champion and the Spartans are the at large selection out of the WAC.  San Jose State is going to be the least popular team in the at large pool given the fact that most of the bowl games needing at large teams are in the Southeast and the Spartans have about as little television and attendance drawing potential that a school can have.  I think that lands them here.
 
AT&T Cotton Bowl: Mississippi State v. Texas Tech
I have Tommy Tuberville's squad beatign the Longhorns in Lubbock, earning them the third place spot in the Big XII's bowl selection order.  That matches them up against the Bulldogs who finish third in the SEC West.  While this isn't the big name match up that this bowl normally gets, this is a pretty even game with plenty of story lines and two teams who will likely be ranked coming in.  Texas is a possibility here if they finish strong and win in Lubbock but I haven't seen anything this year that suggests that will happen.
Chick Fil-A Bowl: Texas A&M v. Clemson
A little chicanery here but follow me on this.  Clemson is the clear cut ACC team here (Miami is possible but you would really rather have a team that will bring fans).  South Carolina finishes at 10-2 with their last game being in Clemson so you don't want them to play again.  Meanwhile the Gator Bowl below you doesn't want a rematch of the Northwestern-Texas A&M match up from last years Texas Bowl.  The solution for both bowls is simple, swap SEC teams.  The Aggies and the Tigers  is a great New Year's eve match up and would be a great get for the folks in Atlanta.
Valero Alamo Bowl: Texas v. USC
The winners of best name match up have to be the people from the Alamo Bowl who draw two of the biggest name programs in the game.  USC is chosen over Oregon State, Arizona, and Stanford who have similar or better records and Texas completes the rematch of the 2005 national title game by being selected over West Virginia and Oklahoma State who have similar records. 
Russell Athletics Bowl: Rutgers v. Miami
I have Miami and North Carolina State with almost identical records and, while this presupposes Miami will be able to go to a bowl game, I think the Hurricanes are the pick.  Miami has sent a solid contingent to this game in the past and the Wolfpack have been here the most recently.  Rutgers is the de facto next team in from the Big East but Cincinnati is also a possibility depending on how things shake out.

Holiday Bowl: UCLA v. Oklahoma State
This is a very close call between UCLA and Stanford.  I think it comes down to the fact that Oklahoma State is the Big XII team here and the bowl will want a match up that people didn't just see last year.  This is really a toss up between UCLA, Stanford, and Oregon State for me but I think the Bruins are the most likely selection considering their recent history without a bowl game and the fact that they provide a "new" match up.
 
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Stanford v. North Carolina State
 See my explanation for the Holiday Bowl to see how I ended up with Stanford here.  Ditto for the Russell Athletics Bowl and North Carolina State.  Other teams we could see here (besides UCLA and Miami) include Duke, Virginia Tech, Oregon State, Arizona, and Arizona State but I think this is pretty much locked in with the contingencies above.
Belk Bowl: Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati
The Hokies have had a disappointing season thus far and I think they finish here in the bowl pecking order.  They are picked over Duke since they will bring more people to the game and will be a bigger television draw (in all honesty, there is a part of me that thinks Duke could end up here with their local fans, but I just don't see it happening realistically).  Cincinnati is the next team in from the Big East and is pretty much a no brainer selection. 

Music City Bowl: Vanderbilt v. Duke
With Duke the only remaining choice from the ACC you are stuck with either a lopsided looking match up with Tennessee, a ho hum game against Ole Miss, or Vanderbilt, which at least has some marketability and a local fan base that can absorb some of the loss from not taking UT.  It isn't ideal, but it is an interesting match up that will get good television ratings and will have attendance that isn't completely horrible.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa State v. Pittsburgh
They're back.  Cyclone fans are a win in Lawrence away from bowl eligibility but I can't see how they don't wind up back here again.  Pittsburgh is the last bowl eligible team from the Big East and they end up here facing the Cyclones who are the final bowl bound team remaining from the Big XII.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Tennessee v. Tulsa
Keep in mind, there is a distinct possibility that Tennessee opts to skip a bowl appearance as they hire a new coach but I don't think they will do it.  The SEC has some say in this match up and I think they try to slot the Volunteers here.  Ole Miss is the far more attractive team (they probably aren't firing their head coach and might actually want to be in a bowl game) but how often does this game get a shot at the in state Volunteers?  This is a possible landing spot for Pac 12 at large Washington but I think the Huskies decline the invitation to play an SEC team in Tennessee.  The Liberty Bowl then has the first selection of a Conference USA team and I think they take league champion Tulsa.
Advocare V100 Independence Bowl:Middle Tennessee State v. Ball State
Yeah this is about as bad as it gets.  The Blue Raiders should get bowl eligible and they will be the last team selected as they land here.  The last team out of the MAC is Ball State and they land here as well.  This is easily one of the worst match ups this bowl season.
Maaco Bowl Las Vegas: Arizona v. Boise State
This could be Washington but I think Arizona is going to finish with a stronger record.  Boise State still has an outside shot at a BCS bowl but I don't think it will happen since their computer ranking is going to drag them down.  This one is pretty much a layup at this point.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Navy v. Washington
The Midshipmen get an automatic spot in this bowl game when they get to six wins and I think that is a certainty at this point.  Washington and Arizona State remain and I think the Huskies are the obvious selection of the two because of their closer proximity to the Bay area and their larger fan base and television cache.

Military Bowl:Marshall v. Kent State
Conference USA usually does more manipulating with its bowl lineup than other leagues and I think Marshall lands here despite it technically being the last bowl tie in for the conference.  Bottom line, there are a lot of Sun Belt teams and solid MAC teams available that I think the conferences bowl tie-ins will lobby to get those teams rather than a Marshall squad that won't really bring much to the table.  Kent State is bowl eligible for the first time in over 40 years and the Golden Flashes are an easy selection here since they at least provide some story lines and reasons to watch this game.
Poinsettia Bowl: BYU v. San Diego State
BYU is going to going bowling and that means a trip to San Diego for the Poinsettia Bowl.  I think San Diego State is an obvious draw here since they will be at least within shouting distance of the top two in the Mountain West (if not second place) which means they wouldn't have a far jump to be playing a home game in their bowl.
New Mexico Bowl: Nevada v. Arizona State
This is looking like a banner year for West Coast affiliated bowls as both the PAC 12 and MWC both look like they will fill all of their bowl slots and could even have a few extra teams.  Arizona State at 6-6 is a no brainer here and matching them up with Nevada gives you two teams that don't have to make very long trips to go to the game and should actually do pretty well on television.

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force v. East Carolina
No Air Force isn't a bigger draw than Nevada or Fresno State, but the Falcons have political connections with this game and, considering this contest is geared towards active duty and retired military, the Air Force Academy might be a smart pick to attract that audience.  East Carolina is a solid team to pit the Falcons against and the Pirates have one of the stronger fan bases in Conference USA.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: SMU v. Fresno State
This is a coup for the Hawaii Bowl as SMU and June Jones have shown historically that they are more than happy to make the trip out to Honolulu for the post season.  Pairing them with Fresno State, a team with a solid traveling fan base who have a shorter trip out to the islands than most, and you have the potential for one of the best attended and most watchable Hawaii Bowls in the game's history.

BBVA Compass Bowl: Arkansas State v. Bowling Green
The Sun Belt gets preferential selection here and Arkansas State's high octane offense makes them the most likely selection.  Bowling Green is not a really great selection but they are the best of what's left and they at least give this bowl game a decently interesting match up.

Beef O'Brady's Bowl: Louisiana Lafayette v. New Mexico
No this isn't the kind of game that you write home about but there are a lot of story lines with the Ragin Cajuns in just their second ever bowl win and the Lobos getting to their first bowl game in a long time under former ESPN analyst Bob Davie.  ULL should send a few fans and New Mexico isn't the worst traveling team left on the board so, even though there will be plenty of empty seats, this isn't a terrible fall back situation for a bowl who doesn't have a team from either of its affiliated conferences.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana Monroe v.Western Michigan
This is intriguing.  I have exactly as many bowl eligible teams as there are slots (technically UTSA and Texas State haven't played enough Div. IA teams to be bowl eligible) so if Western Michigan, or any of the other 6-6 teams I have in, slip up we could start seeing some 5-7 teams filling the slots in bowl games.  ULM is the Sun Belt champ and they are the conference tie in for this spot. 
Go Daddy.com Bowl: Western Kentucky v. Ohio
Arkansas State was in this game last year so I think Western Kentucky gets selected ahead of them.  The Bobcats might be a little bit of a surprise here but Northern Illinois was here last year and Ohio has been a more high profile team this year than Kent State. 
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois v. Utah State
Northern Illinois falls here after being passed over by the Pizza and Go Daddy.com bowls.  Kent State and Ball State are also available but the Huskies will have the better record and have one of the most interesting teams in the MAC.  I don't often pick teams that were in the same bowl the year before but Utah State is more likely to travel to Boise than Louisiana Tech or San Jose State so I think the Aggies make the return visit.