Preseason Bowl Projections (The Whole Shebang)

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:



1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: LSU v. OklahomaWait, what?  Neither of these teams were in my post spring NC prediction.  No, it isn't the heat melting my brain (well maybe a little).  LSU remains stacked on offense and while they do have to face the Crimson Tide on the road, I think the new starters at Alabama's skill positions may struggle.  Oklahoma is dangerous as always and they get Texas A&M in Norman where they hold the nations longest home winning streak.  I am still not sold on either of these two teams so expect this to be tweaked as the season goes on but for now I am leaning towards a Sooners - Tigers matchup.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State v. OregonThis is probably the most likely bowl game to change between now and my final preseason predictions.  The Buckeyes are here until proven otherwise.  Sure they lost Jim Tressel and Terrelle Pryor but the nobody else in the Big Ten looks more talented and the rest of Tressel's coaching staff is there so continuity should not be a huge issue.  Oregon has faced multiple off season problems including the Will Lyles case and the recent citing of a few players in a traffic incident.  Still, the Ducks look like the hands down favorites to win the Pac 12 and I am  not excited enough about ASU or Utah enough to pick them quite yet.

 
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Boise StateUnless there is a big drop off this will almost certainly be the SEC West runner up which in this scenario is the Crimson Tide.  Boise State gets here after running the table in the Mountain West, setting up an interesting matchup that will have echoes of the 2008 Sugar Bowl where the Crimson Tide were demolished by Utah. 

Fiesta Bowl: Texas A&M v. Notre DameI really don't want to pick the Irish to go to a BCS bowl game but the schedule looks just winnable enough to get the golden domers to ten wins.  The Aggies were my darkhorse to win the Big XII but I just don't think they are going to be able to defeat an extremely strong Sooner squad on the road. 

Orange Bowl: South Florida v. Virginia TechThis is almost a lock to be the Big East champion versus the ACC champion.  Florida State will have something to say about this but it is hard to pick against the Hokies and Frank Beamer.  I picked South Florida to win the Big East in our conference predictions (which will be continued after a big of a hiatus in the coming weeks) mostly because I am not sold that the transitions at Pitt and West Virginia will be succesful right away, particularly on defense.

Capital One Bowl: Nebraska v. South CarolinaThe Cornhuskers will be my pick to win the Legends division but that is not set in stone.  I am not wild about their chances with the schedule they face but until someone else proves me wrong they will sit here.  I have the Gamecocks winning the SEC East but falling to LSU in the conference title game.  Watch out for South Carolina this year though.  If Stephen Garcia stays out of the dog house and the defense gels early they may be a darkhorse national title contender.

Outback Bowl: Iowa v. GeorgiaI think the Outback Bowl will go with the Hawkeyes over Wisconsin whose fans may be less inclined to travel with a letdown after their Rose Bowl run last year.  Iowa is a dangerous team this year and they could end up being even higher than this.  Georgia has some people excited but I am a bit more cautious on the Bulldogs.  I think they end up here but it is tough to tell how Mark Richt's squad will do this year.

Insight Bowl: Penn State v. MissouriThe Nittany Lions are tough to peg this year but I see them making a leap into the top two of the Leaders Division.  Their bowl seeding, and their season generally, falls on the question of how good their quarterback play will be and that question is still unanswered.  Missouri will probably have a better record than the Longhorns but it is unlikely that both the Cotton and Alamo Bowls pass up the chance to tap into the Texas fanbase.  If Missouri falls behind Oklahoma State then I think a return trip to Tempe is in the cards for them.

Gator Bowl: Wisconsin v. FloridaThe Badgers fall here but could easily be much higher.  The Big Ten is a toss up this year and I think the Badgers schedule is deceptively tough with trips to Columbus and East Lansing in back to back weeks to go alongwith visits from tough Penn State and Nebraska teams.  The folks in Jacksonville would love an opportunity to pick up the Gators who fall here by virtue of losing to the Bulldogs. 

 

Texas Bowl: Michigan v. BaylorThe Wolverines manage to make some noise inBrady Hoke's first year but I just don't think this team is going to be able to break into the upper echelon of the conference.  However, a 7-5 record gets them a bowl bid and I think the TV ratings those winged helmets bring will get them picked in front of their rivals in East Lansing.  Six win Baylor gets another invite to the Texas Bowl with Kansas State headed to the Holiday Bowl and no other Big XII teams elidgible for a bowl invitation.

Ticket City Bowl: Michigan State v. SMUSparty has several returning starters but the offensive line is a huge question mark and I question whether the defense will be any better than the mediocre unit the Spartans fielded last season. Southern Methodist is one of many Conference USA options for this bowl so don't be surprised to see the non-Big Ten team in this fluctuate quite a bit.

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Illinois v. Miami OH

The Illini manage to get bowl elidgible but they fall to the Ticket City Bowl with only a 7-5 record.  Illini have plenty of reason to be optimistic about this season but if Nathan Scheelhasse cannot develop as a QB they will be lucky to get to a bowl game.  Miami OH gets the nod as the MAC champion to face off against the Illini in Detroit. 

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Mississippi State v. Oklahoma StateI have the Bulldogs making a surprise run into third place in the SEC West which will get the Maroon and White a trip to Dallas.  The Cowboys barely avoid getting jumped by an improved Longhorn squad and manage to make it to Dallas.

Chick Fil-A Bowl: Arkansas v. Florida State
The Hogs finish fourth in the West and accept a bid to Atlanta.  The Gators could go here but I think the Seminoles are a lock and a rematch in a different state isn't likely to command very high television ratings so I think the Hogs get picked over Florida.  FSU has a shot at a BCS bid but is passed over by Notre Dame.

Valero Alamo Bowl: Texas v. Arizona State

The Longhorns jump Missouri for this spot despite a slightly lower record.  Their fans and television ratings make Texas an easy pick here over the Tigers.  ASU gets the nod as the Pac 12 South champion though Utah and Stanford could both be picks here.

Champs Sports Bowl: West Virginia v. ClemsonThe Mountaineers get the nod here over Pittsburgh despite an identical record.  West Virginia travels better than Pitt and both teams are relatively similar in terms of television rankings so I think it will be WVU. Clemson gets the nod here but the middle of the ACC is incredibly jumbled so expect this spot to changehands quite often during the season.

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Virginia v. UtahMajor upset here as Mike London grabs the fourth ACC bowl slot in his second year with the Cavaliers.  North Carolina and Miami are both being rocked by scandals and the former is without a real head coach.  UVA has several veteran players and should make some noise in the muddled center of the ACC.  Utah falls in line here as the fourth Pac 12 team selected.

Holiday Bowl: Stanford v. Kansas StateDon't let the order on this post fool you, Stanford is actually getting selected ahead of Utah.  Their proximity to San Diego plus QB Andrew Luck's potential heisman run make the Cardinal a lock to the Holiday Bowl if they fall this far.  Kansas State manages to scrape together a 6-6 record and is selected ahead of Baylor to head to San Diego.

Belk Bowl: North Carolina v. PittsburghThe Tar Heels end up here because there is still plenty of talent on the roster to make some noise but also because of their proximity to Charlotte and ability to fill the stands.  Pitt will be the third Big East team chosen though I have them in a tie with West Virginia for secon place in the league.

Music City Bowl: Tennessee v. MiamiThe Huricanes are tough to peg. Al Golden is a good coach and they have plenty of talent to work with but the questions at quarterback plus the coaching transition plus the NCAA scandal mean there will be a lot for this team to work through. I am putting them here right now but this is on the low end of their expectations so don't be surprised if they move up.  Tennessee gets back to the Music City Bowl when they fail to make it back into the top half of the SEC East.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Northwestern v. CincinnatiThis may not be the sexiest bowl matchup the New York bowl could have hoped for but Northwestern is a very nice grab with no Big XII team available.  The Wildcats match up with the Bearcats who are an intriguing team in the Big East this year.  I think a strong 8-4 record keeps them from being jumped by conference foe and local team Syracuse. 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Kentucky v. Southern MississippiThe Wildcats are the last SEC team to get into the postseason and the scrape in with a 6-6 record.  They will face off against the Conference USA champion Golden Eagles.  Southern Miss has the potential to be a surprise BCS buster this year but their propensity for dropping one or two games they should win makes me think that this is their ceiling. 

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: North Carolina State v. Air ForceDespite losing Russell Wilson I still think the Wolf Pack will be able to scrape together a winning season in the middle of the ACC but this is a gamble since this team may plummet after a surprising run from the ACC basement last season.  Air Force gets picked here for the second straight year after finishing with nine wins.

Maaco Bowl Las Vegas: Oregon State v. Boise State

The Broncos fall just short of 12 wins for the second straight year and again for the second straight year they find themselves in the Maaco Bowl.  Oregon State is a dangerous team in the Pac 12 this season and they will provide a tough matchup for Boise State in Las Vegas.

Millitary Bowl: Georgia Tech v. NavyThis is a tough call between GT and BC but I think the publicity of creating a triple option matchup will put the Yellow Jackets ahead of the Eagles in this bowl slot.  Navy is automatically selected here when they become bowl elidgible so this matchup should be pretty well set as long as Tech manages to get bowl elidgible.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Army v. UCLAThe Black KNights automatically get this bid if they become bowl elidgible and I think they can manage six wins with their schedule.  The bowl now has to chose between Boston College and UCLA and I think they stick with the team that is closer to AT&T Park.  They face a strong UCLA team who should have no problem getting to seven wins if they can hold serve in the Rose Bowl.  The Bruins have a decent shot at surprising the Pac 12 if they can get the passing game together but given coach Neuheisel's recent track record in that area this is probably a safe pick for UCLA.

New Mexico Bowl: Arizona v. WyomingThe Wildcats have several offensive skill players returning but their dissapointing finish last season plus the loss of the majority of their offensive line makes me think they will just barely scrape up a bowl invitation.  The Wildcats will face Wyoming, who I have just barely passing San Diego State for the MWC's fifth bowl slot.

Armed Forces Bowl: Brigham Young v. Colorado StateWith Houston snatched up I think the Armed Forces Bowl goes with Colorado State and the renewal of the rivalry of two former MWC teams.  BYU automatically gets slotted here if they manage to become bowl eldigible and I think they manage to scrape together six or seven wins which will get them here.  Despite all of the preseason hype of the Cougars I think they will struggle with a brutal schedule and a QB who, despite experience last season, is still very young.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii  v. HoustonThe Warriors are my pick to win the WAC but they are automatically slotted to play here if they are bowl elidgible.  Houston is my pick to lose the Conference USA title game and I think they make the long trek to Honolulu to set up what should be a high scoring shootout between these two pass happy offenses. 

BBVA Compass Bowl: Connecticut v. Louisiana MonroeWith no SEC teams left available the Compass Bowl selects the third place team from the Sun Belt to face off against the Huskies.  Connecticut is breaking in a new head coach and had several lucky breaks last year on the way to the Fiesta Bowl. This year I predict that they fall back down to earth but they get several beatable teams at home which makes this a good schedule for them to at least get bowl elidgible. 

Beef O'Brady's Bowl: Syracuse v. UCFThe Golden Knights get dropped from the Armed Forces Bowl by virtue of BYU becomming bowl elidgible which lands the third place team from Conference USA here.  They face the Big East's last bowl elidgible team in Syracuse who barely clinches on to bowl elidgibility with a 6-6 record.  The Orange have a veteran team and could move up but I have them here because most of their winnable conference games are on the road.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Troy v. East CarloinaThough I still believe FIU wins the Sun Belt, Troy will send more fans to New Orleans and they will get the nod for the first Sun Belt bowl slot.  East Carolina is an interesting matchup and their sizeable fan base and regional television appeal make them a good fit for the New Orleans Bowl.   SMU is also an option here and they are closer but I think that they may opt for the Ticket City Bowl which is in their home city of Dallas. 

Go Daddy.com Bowl: Toledo v. Florida InternationalA rematch of last year's Pizza Pizza Bowl in Detroit (which was actually an instant classic if you didn't watch it).  FIU comes in as the Sun Belt champions and Toledo as the second place team in the MAC West but both clubs have dynamic offenses and both Tim Beckman and Mario Cristobal are rising stars in the coaching world so this will be a fun game for junkies to watch. 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan v. NevadaYes Virginia, this is actually a real, honest to god bowl game.  Don't ask me how or why someone thought this was a good idea because I have no idea.  Western Michigan is my pick as the MAC title game loser and I think after getting passed over by Toledo they end up here.  Nevada is one of several teams which could be picked to finish second in the WAC but the Wolf Pack is getting my pick for now.  This is the last bowl game so the teams listed below are all teams which reached bowl eligibility but were not selected for a bowl game in this projection.

Ohio
Temple
Central Michigan
Northern Illinois
Arkansas State
Fresno State