This is my quick and dirty rundown of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. I was going to do something a bit more in depth but time is a bear right now so this will have to do. Forgive my overuse of RPI, I know it isn't the greatest indicator of anything but since I am short on time I don't have the ability to look up all the stats I would want for this. All times listed are EST.
Tuesday
Iowa at Virginia Tech ESPNU 7:15pm The Hokies are sporting a 5-0 record but it isn't as great as it looks. Virginia Tech has not played anyone in the RPI top 150 and only two of their wins have come against teams in with an RPI above 200. THe Hokies have done well statistically against this slate (top 10 scoring in the country, 49th in assists, and 34th in FG%) but the number to watch is rebounds where the Hokies are 96th in the country despite their cushy schedule. Iowa, meanwhile, comes into this game having played four games against teams with better RPI's than Virginia Tech's opponents and having three wins over teams with a better RPI than Virginia Tech. I mentioned rebounding before and Iowa is 58th in the country. That isn't a huge difference (40 per game to VT's 38.2) but considering who each team has played it is certainly going to be worth watching. The Hokies are led by guard Erick Green and forward Jarell Eddie who are both three point shooting threats. If Iowa can keep Tech off the boards (also worth mentioning is that the Hokies largest player is a 6' 10" freshman who averages 14.2 minutes per game) I think the Hawkeyes will roll the no-longer-fighting-Seth-Greenberg's.
Pick: Iowa
Minnesota at Florida State ESPN2 7:15pm
The Gophers are ranked with their only loss coming to Duke. Minnesota has the better RPI (28) and is in the top 100 nationally in PPG (95th) RPG (49th) APG (41st) and FG% (61st). Meanwhile the Seminoles lone loss was a week one upset against South Alabama where the Jaguars shot lights out from three. Since then Florida State has beaten two top 50 RPI opponents and ranks 12th in FG% and 26th in PPG nationally. While Florida State may not be quite as impressive on paper, they are really hot right now and I think they should be able to dictate tempo at home and grab a nice victory over the Gophers.
Pick: Florida State
North Carolina State at Michigan ESPN 7:30pm
This pick doesn't need much elaboration. Michigan is statistically better in each of the major statistical categories and has been dominant in nearly every game this season (only Pitt came close to beating the Wolverines). NC State has played a tougher schedule but they were blown out by Oklahoma State and nearly lost to a bad UNC-Asheville team. Michigan should win this game comfortably in Ann Arbor.
Pick: Michigan
Nebraska at Wake Forest ESPNU 9:15pm
Easily the dog of the week. Wake Forest was blown out by Iona and Nebraska lost at home to Kent State. These teams are both pretty bad. Statistically Wake Forest is slightly better but RPI says the Huskers are better. I trust statistics a little more (though they aren't terribly different at this point in the season) and the Demon Deacons are at home. When in doubt, take the home team.
Pick: Wake Forest
Maryland at Northwestern ESPN2 9:15pm
This is really simple. One of these teams was three points away from defeating Kentucky, the defending national champions. The other needed over time to beat Illinois State by three. Maryland will win this one and it will not be close. It would have been a lot more interesting to have Maryland match up with Michigan State and put Northwestern against Miami since the match ups we have look very lopsided.
Pick: Maryland
North Carolina at Indiana ESPN 9:30pm
Even if North Carolina plays extremely well and is in a position to win this game, will the officials let them (hey, it's a fair question in Bloomington)? In all seriousness though, this is going to be worth staying up for as both teams are statistically dominating opponents. The discrepency is that Indiana has played a tougher schedule and has beaten a few good teams this year. Even though the Butler loss probably won't end up defining this UNC team, it is hard to look past that since there really isn't anything on the Tar Heels' resume at this point that really impresses. That isn't their fault (the Maui invitational was incredibly strange this year) but it is still a fact. I like Indiana in this game but this is going to be a really exciting match.
Pick: Indiana
Friday
Virginia at Wisconsin ESPN2 7pm
This season hasn't been kind to either team so far. Virginia was derailed early by George Mason and Delaware and are statistically one of the worst offensive teams in the country. Wisconsin is still trying to fill the PG role left by Gasser's ACL tear and the early results have been disappointing with losses to ranked Florida and Creighton squads. Still, I like the Badgers in this game for two reasons. One, they are statistically a much better team and have played an exponentially tougher schedule to date than Virginia. Second, unranked teams coming in to the Kohl Center have historically been almost guaranteed victories for Wisconsin.
Pick: Wisconsin
Purdue at Clemson ESPNU 7:15pm
The Boilermakers have had an incredibly rough start to the season with losses to Villanova, Oregon State, and Bucknell. While there is talent on this Purdue squad, it really hasn't seemed to hit its' stride on offense and the defense still isn't quite up to the normal standard for Purdue. Clemson's only loss was to a ranked Gonzaga squad but the rest of the Tigers' wins have been against sub 200 RPI squads. This is a really tough call since I think Purdue has a little more talent than Clemson, but I have a hard time picking this team to win on the road. I am going with Purdue, better statistically and more battle tested than this Clemson team.
Pick: Purdue
Michigan State at Miami ESPN 7:30pm
The other truly lopsided match up in this year's challenge. Sparty has coasted over their last few games but this is still a very talented team that is more than capable of going on the road and beating up a Miami team who lost to Florida Gulf Coast. The Hurricanes have not played anyone really noteworthy this season either while Michigan State has already played Connecticut and Kansas.
Pick: Michigan State
Georgia Tech at Illinois ESPN2 9pmThis actually looked like an interesting game before the season started, but with Illinois playing the way they have been to start the season there is no way I see Georgia Tech winning this. Illinois looked downright dominant at times in Maui and have gone from a team everyone assumed would be in rebuilding mode to one of the most dangerous teams in the Big Ten. The Ramblin Wreck isn't bad but they aren't good enough to win on the road in one of the most hostile basketball venues in the country.
Pick: Illinois
Boston College at Penn State ESPNU 9:15pm
Wow, it's almost as if ESPN knew that the PSU-BC and UNL-WF games would be terrible. The 9:15 ESPNU slot is the resting place for the worst teams in the challenge and these squads both deserve that distinction. Boston College has already lost four games this season (Baylor, Dayton, Charleston, and Bryant) and they only squeaked past Auburn by one point at home. Penn State lost their best player, Tim Frazier, for the season and are only hobbling along at this point, boasting one of the worst offenses in the nation. I am going to take BC on the road simply because I think they have a significantly better offense and that will be enough to push them past the relatively inept Nittany Lions.
Pick: Boston College
Ohio State at Duke ESPN 9:30pm
The challenge concludes with this match up (though Illinois' victory will have sewn up the Big Ten's fifth consecutive victory well before this is over) and it is a dandy. Ohio State comes in ranked fourth in the country and Duke is second. The Buckeyes are untested so far this year while Duke has already played Kentucky and Maryland. Frankly, even though people might see this as the biggest match up of the challenge when they see where each team is ranked, I don't think this is a very difficult pick. Duke is the better team and they are playing at home in front of the Cameron Crazies. Ohio State is still a good team but this just seems like an obvious win for the Blue Devils for me.
Pick: Duke
Conference:
Big Ten - 7
ACC - 5
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