Big Ten Basketball Race to the Finish

It is over halfway through the Big Ten season and, while I intended to start doing this around the end of bowl season, life had other plans.  This is my discussion of the upcoming week in Big Ten Basketball where I update the conference race and project final records and seeding for the conference tournament in Indianapolis. 

The Standings
1. Michigan State (9-3)
    Ohio State (9-3)
3. Michigan (9-4)
4. Wisconsin (8-4)
5. Indiana (7-5)
6. Purdue (6-6)
7. Iowa (5-7)
    Illinois (5-7)
    Northwestern (5-7)
    Minnesota (5-7)
11. Nebraska (3-10)
      Penn State (3-10)

(Note: In the case of ties, I ordered teams based on the tie breaking procedures used in the Big Ten tournament so the order you see is what the seeds for the conference tournament would be. This has the potential to change dramatically from week to week so don't get too worked up about it.)



Projections
1. Michigan StateSparty earned a huge victory this weekend when they toppled the Buckeyes in Columbus.  The win puts them in the driver's seat for the conference title and their schedule sets up nicely for the green and white to hold the number one seed in Indy.  Sparty hosts the Badgers Thursday and travels to Purdue on Sunday before Minnesota and Nebraska next week. The closing stretch has games at Indiana and the rematch against the Buckeyes in East Lansing.  I think the Spartans drop one more game, right now I think it will be the trip to Bloomington but Ohio State and Purdue are also possibilities.  I doubt they lose more though, so I have their final conference record at 14-4.

2. Ohio State
The Buckeyes were the clear cut favorite until they lost to the Spartans Saturday.  The loss puts them in tough position with trips to Ann Arbor and East Lansing still on the schedule.  The Buckeyes just haven't become the cohesive unit they have the potential to be and until they do they are going to be vulnerable.  I have them losing both of their road contests in the state of Michigan putting them at 13-5 overall in the conference.

3. Indiana
The Hoosiers are currently fifth in the conference standings but their win over Purdue last week gives them a huge edge in the closing stretch. Their final conference games are against Iowa, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State, and Purdue.  I think the Hoosiers beat the Spartans and, while the road trip to Iowa City and home finale against the Boilermakers will present challenges, I don't see another game that the Hoosiers will lose.  I currently have them closing on a 5-0 conference winning streak and beating out Michigan in a tie breaker for the third seed in Indianapolis. 

4. MichiganThe Wolverines have a shot to finish at the top of the conference after their home victory over Illinois this past weekend.  However, I think they drop their two road trips to Northwestern and Illinois because of their lack of strength in past road performances and difficult match ups against the Wildcats and Illini.  That would put Michigan at 12-6 in the conference which is just enough to get them a first round bye in the tournament.

5. Wisconsin 
 The Badgers grabbed a nice win in Minneapolis last weekend to snap their losing skid against the Gophers but I am not convinced that this team is there yet.  Michigan State on the road will be a brutal test and that is followed by a visit from Penn State and a trip to Iowa City for a revenge game against the Hawkeyes.  Ohio State on the road and Minnesota and Illinois in Madison round out what is going to be a rocky closing clip for the Badgers.  Anywhere between 5-1 and 1-5 is possible in this stretch so I am splitting the difference and calling for a 3-3 split with losses to MSU, OSU, and Iowa.  I think MSU and OSU are self explanatory and if Wisconsin is cold shooting threes against Iowa again, a definite possibility on the road, then the rematch in Iowa City will likely look a lot like the first game at the Kohl Center.  The 3-3 split would give the Badgers an 11-7 conference record.

6. Purdue
The Boilers got a big win Sunday night in Mackey when they dispatched Northwestern.  The win, and a strong closing push, should guarantee that Purdue heads to the NCAA tournament.  The closing stretch isn't kind however with Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, and Michigan still on the schedule.  I think the Boilermakers also split their remaining six games with losses to Michigan, Michigan State, and Indiana.  The split would give them a 9-9 conference record and a solid fix on the sixth seed in Indianapolis.

7. Illinois
My how the Illini have fallen.  Once a conference title contender Illinois' basketball team has followed a similar script as their football counterparts and collapsed over the back stretch.  There is time for redemption though, and the schedule has a few opportunities.  There are home dates from Purdue, Michigan, and Iowa as well as road trips to Nebraska, Ohio State, and Wisconsin.  Again I am going conservative and predicting a 3-3 split in these games with the losses being to Purdue, Ohio State, and Wisconsin.  The Boilers have won the last few trips to Champaign and the Buckeyes and Badgers both present extremely tough road challenges so those losses seem reasonable.  Michigan and Iowa at home should be fairly easy for Illinois and, while Nebraska could get the upset in Lincoln, I think Illinois can grab a road win there to give them an 8-10 record in conference play.  I currently have three teams at 8-10 in the conference but the Illini would own the tiebreaker giving them the seventh seed in the tournament.

8. Northwestern
The Wildcats suffered a setback  Sunday night against Purdue but they still have a good shot to get into the NCAA tournament if they can hold on these next couple of weeks.  They play in Bloomington Wednesday and then host Minnesota and Michigan before traveling to Penn State.  They close out with a home date against the Buckeyes and a road trip to Iowa.  This is a tough schedule to call so I am going conservative again and picking a 3-3 split.  Northwestern has generally played pretty well at home and I think they defeat Minnesota and Michigan as well as Penn State on the road (though none of those games are locks).  Losing to Ohio State and Indiana is pretty likely, but the loss to Iowa goes against some conventional wisdom which says that the Princeton offense should doom the Hawkeyes.  Iowa, statistically, had probably its' worst game of the season against the Cats in Evanston but I think Northwestern comes in pretty gassed and has a tougher time shooting the three which is the same formula that Iowa used to blow out Michigan in Carver.  A split would put Northwestern at 8-10 in conference play but this projection is hardly set in stone.

 9. Iowa
The Hawkeyes remain an enigma but I am guessing they continue their trend of winning some surprise games and losing some head scratchers.  I have them gaining a 3-3 split in their last six games (yes I know, repetitive) with wins over Penn State, Wisconsin, and Northwestern.  This is more throwing darts at the board than any of the other picks since Iowa could reasonably lose to all three of those teams and grab upsets against Illinois, Indiana, and Nebraska.  I think cold three point shooting gives Iowa the Wisconsin and Northwestern games but don't be surprised if they both turn out to be Hawkeye losses.

10. Minnesota
No 3-3 split here.  I have the Gophers finishing with a disappointing 1-4  stretch to put them at 6-11 in conference play.  This might seem harsh but their next four games are Ohio State, at Northwestern, Michigan State, at Wisconsin.  The only win I see is the home finale against Nebraska but even that could be suspect.  The Gophers have a decent shot of getting an upset in both of their road trips but I am going to say they fall short and finish in the 10 seed in Indianapolis.

11. Nebraska
Another 1-4 mark but this one is probably a little less surprising.  The only win I have the Huskers getting is at home against Iowa but a win over Illinois at home or Minnesota on the road isn't out of the question (I don't think they win at Purdue or Michigan State).   As it stands though I think the Huskers are facing a 4-14 record in their inaugural Big Ten year.

12. Penn State
This is perhaps my least likely to happen pick of the group but I don't see Penn State winning another game.  I have them going 0-5 and finishing 3-15 in the conference.  They certainly can beat Iowa this Thursday or snag a home win against Northwestern or Michigan, but I think Penn State loses to an Iowa team angry about how they played against Northwestern and starts to pack it in after a demoralizing loss in the Kohl Center.  It isn't a great start to the Pat Chambers era in State College but the future looks a little bit brighter with some solid talent coming in the next few recruiting classes.