Monday, November 26, 2012

Big Ten-ACC Challenge Preview

This is my quick and dirty rundown of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge.  I was going to do something a bit more in depth but time is a bear right now so this will have to do.  Forgive my overuse of RPI, I know it isn't the greatest indicator of anything but since I am short on time I don't have the ability to look up all the stats I would want for this.  All times listed are EST.

Tuesday

Iowa at Virginia Tech ESPNU 7:15pm
The Hokies are sporting a 5-0 record but it isn't as great as it looks.  Virginia Tech has not played anyone in the RPI top 150 and only two of their wins have come against teams in with an RPI above 200.  THe Hokies have done well statistically against this slate (top 10 scoring in the country, 49th in assists, and 34th in FG%) but the number to watch is rebounds where the Hokies are 96th in the country despite their cushy schedule.  Iowa, meanwhile, comes into this game having played four games against teams with better RPI's than Virginia Tech's opponents and having three wins over teams with a better RPI than Virginia Tech. I mentioned rebounding before and Iowa is 58th in the country.  That isn't a huge difference (40 per game to VT's 38.2) but considering who each team has played it is certainly going to be worth watching.  The Hokies are led by guard Erick Green and forward Jarell Eddie who are both three point shooting threats.  If Iowa can keep Tech off the boards (also worth mentioning is that the Hokies largest player is a 6' 10" freshman who averages 14.2 minutes per game) I think the Hawkeyes will roll the no-longer-fighting-Seth-Greenberg's.
Pick: Iowa

Minnesota at Florida State ESPN2 7:15pm
The Gophers are ranked with their only loss coming to Duke.  Minnesota has the better RPI (28) and is in the top 100 nationally in PPG (95th) RPG (49th) APG (41st) and FG% (61st).  Meanwhile the Seminoles lone loss was a week one upset against South Alabama where the Jaguars shot lights out from three.  Since then Florida State has beaten two top 50 RPI opponents and ranks 12th in FG% and 26th in PPG nationally.  While Florida State may not be quite as impressive on paper, they are really hot right now and I think they should be able to dictate tempo at home and grab a nice victory over the Gophers.
Pick: Florida State

North Carolina State at Michigan ESPN 7:30pm
This pick doesn't need much elaboration.  Michigan is statistically better in each of the major statistical categories and has been dominant in nearly every game this season (only Pitt came close to beating the Wolverines).  NC State has played a tougher schedule but they were blown out by Oklahoma State and nearly lost to a bad UNC-Asheville team.  Michigan should win this game comfortably in Ann Arbor.
Pick: Michigan

Nebraska at Wake Forest ESPNU 9:15pm
Easily the dog of the week.  Wake Forest was blown out by Iona and Nebraska lost at home to Kent State.  These teams are both pretty bad.  Statistically Wake Forest is slightly better but RPI says the Huskers are better.  I trust statistics a little more (though they aren't terribly different at this point in the season) and the Demon Deacons are at home.  When in doubt, take the home team.
Pick: Wake Forest

Maryland at Northwestern ESPN2 9:15pm
This is really simple.  One of these teams was three points away from defeating Kentucky, the defending national champions.  The other needed over time to beat Illinois State by three.  Maryland will win this one and it will not be close.  It would have been a lot more interesting to have Maryland match up with Michigan State and put Northwestern against Miami since the match ups we have look very lopsided.
Pick: Maryland

North Carolina at Indiana ESPN 9:30pm
Even if North Carolina plays extremely well and is in a position to win this game, will the officials let them (hey, it's a fair question in Bloomington)?   In all seriousness though, this is going to be worth staying up for as both teams are statistically dominating opponents.  The discrepency is that Indiana has played a tougher schedule and has beaten a few good teams this year.  Even though the Butler loss probably won't end up defining this UNC team, it is hard to look past that since there really isn't anything on the Tar Heels' resume at this point that really impresses.  That isn't their fault (the Maui invitational was incredibly strange this year) but it is still a fact.  I like Indiana in this game but this is going to be a really exciting match.
Pick: Indiana

Friday

Virginia at Wisconsin ESPN2 7pm
This season hasn't been kind to either team so far.  Virginia was derailed early by George Mason and Delaware and are statistically one of the worst offensive teams in the country.  Wisconsin is still trying to fill the PG role left by Gasser's ACL tear and the early results have been disappointing with losses to ranked Florida and Creighton squads.  Still, I like the Badgers in this game for two reasons.  One, they are statistically a much better team and have played an exponentially tougher schedule to date than Virginia.  Second, unranked teams coming in to the Kohl Center have historically been almost guaranteed victories for Wisconsin. 
Pick: Wisconsin

Purdue at Clemson ESPNU 7:15pm
The Boilermakers have had an incredibly rough start to the season with losses to Villanova, Oregon State, and Bucknell.  While there is talent on this Purdue squad, it really hasn't seemed to hit its' stride on offense and the defense still isn't quite up to the normal standard for Purdue.  Clemson's only loss was to a ranked Gonzaga squad but the rest of the Tigers' wins have been against sub 200 RPI squads.  This is a really tough call since I think Purdue has a little more talent than Clemson, but I have a hard time picking this team to win on the road.  I am going with Purdue, better statistically and more battle tested than this Clemson team.
Pick: Purdue

Michigan State at Miami ESPN 7:30pm
The other truly lopsided match up in this year's challenge.  Sparty has coasted over their last few games but this is still a very talented team that is more than capable of going on the road and beating up a Miami team who lost to Florida Gulf Coast.  The Hurricanes have not played anyone really noteworthy this season either while Michigan State has already played Connecticut and Kansas.
Pick: Michigan State

Georgia Tech at Illinois ESPN2 9pmThis actually looked like an interesting game before the season started, but with Illinois playing the way they have been to start the season there is no way I see Georgia Tech winning this.  Illinois looked downright dominant at times in Maui and have gone from a team everyone assumed would be in rebuilding mode to one of the most dangerous teams in the Big Ten.  The Ramblin Wreck isn't bad but they aren't good enough to win on the road in one of the most hostile basketball venues in the country.
Pick: Illinois

Boston College at Penn State ESPNU 9:15pm
Wow, it's almost as if ESPN knew that the PSU-BC and UNL-WF games would be terrible.  The 9:15 ESPNU slot is the resting place for the worst teams in the challenge and these squads both deserve that distinction. Boston College has already lost four games this season (Baylor, Dayton, Charleston, and Bryant) and they only squeaked past Auburn by one point at home.  Penn State lost their best player, Tim Frazier, for the season and are only hobbling along at this point, boasting one of the worst offenses in the nation.  I am going to take BC on the road simply because I think they have a significantly better offense and that will be enough to push them past the relatively inept Nittany Lions.

Pick: Boston College

Ohio State at Duke ESPN 9:30pm
The challenge concludes with this match up (though Illinois' victory will have sewn up the Big Ten's fifth consecutive victory well before this is over) and it is a dandy.  Ohio State comes in ranked fourth in the country and Duke is second.  The Buckeyes are untested so far this year while Duke has already played Kentucky and Maryland.  Frankly, even though people might see this as the biggest match up of the challenge when they see where each team is ranked, I don't think this is a very difficult pick.  Duke is the better team and they are playing at home in front of the Cameron Crazies.  Ohio State is still a good team but this just seems like an obvious win for the Blue Devils for me.
Pick: Duke

Conference:
Big Ten - 7

ACC - 5

Friday, November 9, 2012

Preseason Big Ten Basketball Power Rankings

New this year, the Big Ten basketball Power Rankings will come out once a month during the preseason (once in November and once in December) and every week during the Big Ten season. 

1. Indiana
The AP Poll has them at #1 in the country and, at least for now, I don't see any reason to disagree.  Cody Zeller leads a deep, talented, and experienced Indiana squad that should be a lock for the Final Four.  Still, the Hoosiers need to play better on defense if they are going to live up to the massive amount of hype they are bringing into this season.

2. Ohio State
Again, nothing special here.  The Buckeyes are #4 nationally and, while they did lose Jared Sullinger, are on paper the most likely team to challenge the Hoosiers for the Big Ten crown.  Key to this season is sophomore Amir Williams who was one of the team's best rebounders in limited minutes from a year ago.  If Williams can continue to dominate the boards and develop an offensive presence then the Buckeyes may be back in the Final Four.

3. Michigan State
This is where it starts to get tricky.  While I concede the SparWtans may have a rough go of it in the non conference slate with games against Connecticut (on Friday), Kansas, Miami, and Texas, this team always seems to gel in time for the Big Ten slate.  The question all off season was how this team will play without leader Draymond Green but I think Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne step up in the front court and the team will get a boost as soon as Branden Dawson returns to full strength.  They might not look terrific early, but I think this team will turn it on in time for conference play and challenge the top two.

4. Wisconsin
Bo Ryan has never finished outside the top four in the conference during his time in Madison and even with a season ending injury to starting point guard Josh Gasser I am not going to pick against the Badgers.  Obviously Gasser is the main story line at this point but I think there is enough talent in the front court to keep this team upright so that whoever steps in at the point will not be counted on to carry the team.  This is another team that will struggle early, particularly with Mike Brusewitz out for a few games with a leg laceration.

5. Michigan
There will probably be some disagreement here.  The Wolverines are more talented than ever under John Beilein with Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke back along with a highly touted recruiting class.  While this may be positive for Michigan in terms of rebounding and defense, anyone who knows the system Beilein has installed in Ann Arbor has to be a little concerned about the lack of outside shooting.  This team lost three of its best perimeter shooters to graduation and their production is going to be difficult to replace.  I think Michigan is a year away from really setting the conference on fire.

6. Minnesota
The return of Trevor Mbakwe his legal follies have grabbed most of the off season headlines but the real reason to buy into this team is their depth in the back court.  Andre Hollins averaged 16.6 points per game in March last season and he leads what should be a five man rotation in the back court.  The glaring problem is the post where Mbakwe is the only offensive weapon of note.  This team died in he post last season but with their star forward back and with the conference not being particularly strong up front the Gophers should be able to manage a strong finish in the Big Ten.

7. Iowa
The Hawkeyes will likely feature a 10-11 man rotation this season and have some exciting new talent with freshmen Adam Woodbury and Mike Gessell.  Still, this is a very young team with only one senior and there will be growing pains.  If this team can limit their bad losses (i.e. Nebraska, Penn State, Campbell) they should easily be on the NCAA tournament bubble which would set up a huge 2013 season when the Hawkeyes might develop into a legitimate Big Ten title contender.

8. Purdue
This is a rebuilding season for the Boilers and they will need several of last years role players (particularly DJ Byrd) to step up and take leadership of a freshman led squad.   To make matters more difficult, this is a team that will have to relearn the program's hallmark defensive mentality which was absent last year (Purdue finished in the bottom half of the conference on defense last season).  However, there is a lot of potential on this team and if Purdue can build some momentum in the non-conference (which won't be easy thanks to games against Villanova, Clemson, Xavier, and Notre Dame) this team could be very dangerous during conference play.

9. Northwestern
The good news is that the Wildcats return a solid nucleus with Drew Crawford, Dave Sobolewski, and Alex Marcotullio and they get Louisville transfer Jared Swoopshire who is a solid shot blocking forward.  The problem is that they lose John Shurna, Luka Mirkovic, and David Curletti to graduation and Jershonn Cobb to a season long suspension.  This team is going to be thin and relatively young in the front court which does not bode well for a school that was arguably the worst rebounding team in the conference and one of the worst in FG% defense.  The Wildcats could finish higher but I expect them to struggle this season as their young players learn to compete in the Big Ten.

10. Illinois
The Illini have a new head coach in John Groce and some talent still on the roster but there is a lot of rebuilding to be done in Champaign.  Do everything center Miles Leonard is gone and this team will be relying on a slew of new faces both in the front court and to build depth on what was not a particularly deep team last year.  The Illini simply weren't very productive on offense last season and without Leonard there is a huge question as to who will be generating points for them on a consistent basis.  This is probably the toughest team to pick since, based solely on raw talent, Illinois could jump as high as sixth or seventh.  The schedule isn't terrible (only one game against Michigan State, Iowa, Indiana, and Penn State) but I feel like Northwestern has a better chance of being consistent this season given the youth movement the Illini will be enduring.

11. Penn State
Tim Frazier returns as the teams top offensive threat but there are several new faces on this team that will need to step up for the Nittany Lions to get out of the conference basement this season.  I feel like this team would actually be pretty dangerous in most other conferences but the Big Ten is just so deep that I believe this team, while they will certainly not be an easy out for many teams, just won't be able to put a run together that would place them higher in the standings.

12. Nebraska
Only one returning starter and a new head coach.  This is a pretty easy pick as the Huskers have a better chance of going win-less in conference than they do finishing higher than this.  Tim Miles was a great hire and he should be have the Huskers competing in the next few years but this is going to be a slower rebuilding job as Nebraska has been struggling on the recruiting trail.  The Huskers will need to grab developmental guys and hope they pan out in two or three years from now but that means they may have a few rough seasons in the immediate future in the incredibly deep Big Ten.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Revised Stadium Rankings

Since I last did my stadium rankings I have added Florida and Florida State to my list of places I have visited and my criteria for ranking the stadiums has been tweaked a little bit.  As a result, these rankings vary a little bit from my previous version.  Just as a refresher, I primarily value overall stadium quality and atmosphere but I do give consideration to the location of the venue, tailgating, and other things to do around town. 

1. Michigan Stadium (Michigan)
Ann Arbor was tied with Wisconsin for first in my initial rankings but they are now all alone at the top.  Amazing atmosphere, fantastic tailgating, and one of college football's best stadiums make this a no brainer.  The only complaint I have about Michigan is that, if you are sitting in the corners, it can seem like you are a long way from the action (and technically, you are).  However, I don't feel as though this really detracts since the view isn't obstructed and the effect isn't debilitating so you still can tell what is going on in the game.  Pretty easily the best stadium I have ever visited.

2. Ohio Stadium (Ohio State)
The Horseshoe is hot on the heels of the Big House in my opinion.  Rabid fans, a massive tailgating scene, and one of the most iconic stadiums in the sport make it a must see.  However, there are two small details that keep it behind Michigan.  First is the presence of obstructed view seats which, if you are unlucky enough to be put in one of them, are about as bad as obstructed view seats can get.  Second is the town itself.  Columbus just doesn't have that college town feel.  The city as a whole feels more like a metropolis with a college that just so happens to be inside.  While this means there is plenty to do in C-bus, there is something about those small college town atmospheres that makes the game atmosphere feel more focused and intense than in a major city where you could walk a few blocks from campus and find someone who might not know there is a game going on (let alone who the home team is playing).  Still, I am nitpicking here.  This is a really awesome place to visit and the city is pretty neat if you have time to look around.

3. Beaver Stadium (Penn State)
They were originally fifth on my list but the more I consider it the more I can't help but wonder why I put them that far down.  The campus is gorgeous and I highly recommend spending time there.  If you have time, the Nittany Lion Inn and the creamery are both good places to stop by and, while there didn't seem to be as many or as quality bars and restaurants as Madison, there is plenty if you are just spending a football weekend.  For game day, the tailgating is fantastic and the fans are extremely nice.  The stadium itself is ugly as sin and can be mildly annoying to navigate because some of the concourses are disjointed (it isn't horrible but can be a little frustrating at times).  Also the student section shows up late.  However the atmosphere is truly electric and even for lower level league games the crowd manages to create a fairly intense atmosphere.

4. Kinnick Stadium (Iowa)
Maybe a slight homer pick but when it comes to atmosphere Iowa is a great sleeper.  Not many stadiums get as consistently electric of an atmosphere as Kinnick and while Iowa may not match Penn State or Ohio State when it comes to the big games, they make up for it by keeping a high energy level for the non marquee contests.  The stadium is simple with no bad seats and an architectural style that, while maybe not as iconic as Michigan or Ohio State, is not an eyesore.  Iowa City has more than its fair share of bars (only Madison rivals Iowa in terms of alcohol consumption per capita) and there are restaurants aren't bad either.  The tailgating can be great but for noon games it drops off a bit more than other schools. 

5. Camp Randall Stadium (Wisconsin)
Madison was much higher on my initial rankings but two things really brought it down.  The first is consistency.  Big games are really special in Wisconsin but those noon games just don't get the same atmosphere.  Still, the town is incredible and it is worth visiting even if there isn't a sporting event going on.  Camp Randal isn't the greatest architecturally but is has historical value and the sight lines are good.  Overall a good experience but it just doesn't have the consistent atmosphere to put it in the top four.

6. Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Florida)
Prior to kickoff in my visit to the Swamp I was ready to put it right at or near the top of this list.  The fans are phenomenal, the tailgating is exceptional, the stadium itself is very nice and easy to navigate, and there are a solid number of options for drinking and eating outside the stadium (though they are expensive).  Add into that the fact that the nearby BYOB spring where you can cool off in the water while enjoying some adult beverages and outside of the game this stadium has everything you could possibly ask for.  The problem is that the game matters most, and I was pretty disappointed by the game atmosphere for Florida.  Way too many empty seats and a pretty ho hum crowd made for a less than energetic atmosphere.  I know the Gators lost the week prior and the offense isn't exactly setting the world on fire, but the Missouri fans in the stadium were far more energetic than the lethargic Gator crowd.  It was almost incredible, outside the stadium there was plenty of energy but once inside a malaise set in and the crowd just seemed bored.  Don't get me wrong, Florida has potential to be really special for big games and I would recommend a visit to anyone in the state, but Ben Hill Griffin is the state of Florida's equivalent to Camp Randall except Wisconsin you would be hard pressed to find that many empty seats at a Wisconsin game when the Badgers have only one loss.

7. Memorial Stadium (Nebraska)
On its face putting Nebraska here may seem weird, but while the first six are all really close together in my mind, there is a pretty significant drop off from Florida to Nebraska.  Lincoln isn't a bad town but it isn't terribly exciting.  The tailgating takes place under a freeway over pass and, in terms of both quality and volume, is not even close to any of the six stadiums above it.  The stadium itself is a pain in the butt to navigate.  God forbid you have a weak bladder and are seated near the top because you will be going up and down about four to five stories worth of narrow ramps all game.   The fans are generally content to sit and watch in relative silence as long as the Huskers are winning.  It doesn't take much to quiet the crowd and there were times when I wondered if people were leaving that I couldn't see.  For a bigger game I am sure it gets louder but for a conference game that was one of the tamest atmospheres I have ever encountered.  While Nebraska certainly has better (or at least more consistent) attendance than Florida, there is no redeeming quality to the bad atmosphere for most non-marquee games in Lincoln since the tailgating and atmosphere outside the stadium at places like Gainesville or Iowa City just aren't present at Nebraska.

 8. Doak S. Campbell Stadium (Florida State)
 Tallahassee is not a college town.  Like Columbus or Minneapolis it feels like a city with a college next to it.  Making matters worse is that, as a city, Tallahassee is kind of dirty and it can get kinda rough in some of the neighborhoods close to campus.  The campus itself is pretty but outside of taking a walk there isn't much to do on game day.  Tailgating is poor and there aren't really any great places to eat or drink close to the stadium.  The stadium is nice with good sight lines but unless the Seminoles are playing a rivalry game there are going to be huge swaths of empty seats.  The fans inside get into the game but unless it is a marquee game you will get a mass exodus at half time when most of the student section and many alums decide that watching the rest of the game would be more fun with air conditioning.  It can be pretty electric for big games but it doesn't have the upside of any of the elite teams.  Overall unless the opponent is a big name school or a rival like Miami or Clemson then you probably aren't missing anything.

9. Memorial Stadium (Illinois)
Champagne isn't the greatest college town in the world but it hosts a nice football game.  No the Illini aren't always good but when they are decent this is a solid place to spend a Saturday.  The tailgating is pretty good and there are enough good bars and restaurants in the city to keep you occupied for a game weekend.  The stadium sucks, with bad sight lines and some obstructed view seats to go with what has to be the worst traffic control known to mRossan.  The atmosphere is decent and there are several little traditions that are unique to Illinois that make it interesting.  No it isn't in the same league as any of the stadiums above it but Memorial Stadium has a solid atmosphere with several interesting traditions that make it worth visiting.

10. Jack Trice Stadium (Iowa State)
I am just going to copy and paste my previous write up since I don't have anything else to say. 

"First off, Ames sucks.  There are a couple good places to go there but the campus is unspectacular and your options are limited.  This is second only to Evanston in terms of bad bar availability.  The tailgating around Jack Trice is pretty good and, while Cyclones can be particularly hostile to Hawkeyes, their fans tend to be nice enough that you would never feel too threatened.  The stadium itself is a piece of crap, aesthetically my least favorite of all the ones I have been to.  Yet, this is more about atmosphere than anything else and I have to tip my hat to Cyclone fans who generate a very loud, very energized stadium atmosphere.  There are a lot of crappy stadiums at the bottom of this list but ISU passes them for having an extremely higher level of passion both inside and outside the stadium on game day. I wouldn't recommend it, but if you are looking to visit a lot of stadiums you can turn a trip to Jack Trice into a very nice weekend if you try."

11. TCF Bank Stadium (Minnesota)
In my original preview I wrote, "Minnesota is the anti-Iowa State.  Good facility, nice city, but a crappy atmosphere around game day".  I stand by that.  I tend to think this stadium is overrated in the media.  Having actually sat in that facility I can say that it was a pretty miserable experience.  The fans are fair weather and the only real atmosphere is the annoyingly loud prodding of their PA guy who is easily the most obnoxious of any stadium I have ever been to.  Minneapolis is alright (Dinkytown blows) but like I said, this is mostly about atmosphere and Minnesota's is just bad.

12. Memorial Stadium (Indiana)
Oh Indiana.  It isn't a bad place to see a game but it certainly isn't a must-see locale.  The stadium itself is very aesthetically pleasing and is easy enough to navigate.  There is some solid tailgating but many of the fans chose to stay outside with their grills rather than actually attend the game so you always see empty seats.  The addition of the playground under the video board in the open end zone bothers me since a bunch of kids running around on one side of the field makes the whole thing feel like a giant day-care/ The students make noise and there are moments where it actually starts to feel like a real football atmosphere but most of the time the Hoosiers aren't much fun to watch and the stadium empties early.  Not terrible but pretty darn close to it.

13. Ross Ade Stadium (Purdue)
West Lafayette isn't a bad town and there are some decent food or drink options.  That is the only positive thing I have to say about Purdue.  Terrible stadium with bad sight lines and an incredibly flat atmosphere.  There really isn't any good tailgating to speak of around the stadium .  Just overall a really bad place to watch a football game.

14. Dyche Stadium (Northwestern)
They say a picture is worth a thousand words.  While I could write more than a few harsh criticisms of the crappy stadium with bad sight lines, the non-existent pregame atmosphere, or the general high school feel to the games, I am just going to put up a picture from the Northwestern student section taken during their last home game against Iowa.

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