Pre Season Top 25 Vol. 1

So here are my preseason top 25 teams for the 2010 season.  This will be updated around late July or but I think that the current list is fairly well set outside of the 20-25 spots.

1. Ohio State: Call me Big Ten biased, but if the Buckeyes take care of business on the road against Iowa and Wisconsin, they win the conference, and likely finish with no more than one loss. Now, this is not an unflawed Ohio State squad. The offensive line still needs to turn a corner and some skill position players need to step up and assert themselves more to make this attack more than mediocre. I think the Buckeyes defense is great aside from safety, which is not a huge weakness but could potentially limit the blitzing schemes Ohio State uses. However, in comparison to everyone else, the Buckeyes are, at least on paper, the best.


2. Boise State: How good are the Broncos? They return pretty much every starter except stud corner back Kyle Wilson from a team that was undefeated last year. But who did they play worth mentioning? Yeah they beat Oregon at home, but the Ducks were hardly a juggernaut, especially compared to the big boys who came out of the SEC and Big XII last year. How good Virginia Tech will be is debatable, but beating them in Landover on the opening Thursday night should grab enough votes to maybe break into the National Championship game if the Broncos go undefeated. The problem with that is that the Broncos better hope the Hokies, and the ACC, perform better than they did last year or else there will still be that “Yeah but…..” attached to the Broncos record.

3. Florida: What?!?!?!?! He didn’t pick the Crimson Tide? No, I didn’t. Sorry but recruiting athletes and talking about how Nick Saban is a genius doesn’t really make up for how many holes this defense has. You will not win a National Title, let alone an SEC championship, without strong, experienced, defense. Florida needs to find an offense with a punch but I think new QB Brantly will actually be a breath of fresh air. The kid is a pocket passer who can scramble if he has to, which should work great for Urban Meyer who lacked the explosiveness last year he needed to make up for Tim Tebow’s inability to become an elite level passer. The Gators are flawed but enough guys come back to move through a rebuilding SEC.

4. Southern California: Monte Kiffin might be the greatest thing that ever happens on this defense. With this kind of talent, and his son’s ability to coach quarterbacks, the Trojans are a rebuilt offensive line away from a National Title run. Oregon will be a test, but it is one that the Trojans will face at home and nobody else on the schedule looks ready to beat USC. There have been questions about the talent level on the Trojans, but this team with the level of coaching this staff brings, which, despite the mocking from the SEC, is extremely good, is going to be a monster again.

5. Alabama: Look, experience matters. Alabama is going to be restocking the shelves with a lot of guys who just don’t have the experience to do what last year’s phenomenal squad did. Nick Saban is a great coach but he is a notoriously conservative coach who focuses on time of possession. Having an experienced defense is a big part of making that strategy successful and that just isn’t something Alabama has right now. Also, what is really overhyped about this team is the returning starters on offense. Mark Ingram is good, but he wasn’t even statistically the best player at his position last year, despite the fact that few running backs had great years. Greg McElroy was decent, but he wasn’t a major threat unless teams had to sell out to stop the run, and most of the teams listed in the top ten will be able to do that. The Tide will probably be in a BCS bowl game, but they will likely be in there with two losses.


6. Oklahoma: The Sooners are under the radar coming into this year, with most of the media attention in the conference going to Nebraska and Texas. But neither of those teams is perfect and with the Big XII arguably the only conference losing more talent than the SEC, Oklahoma is the most talented team left on the board. The Sooners already have Landry Jones with some good game experience and they don’t have to face the Huskers until the Big XII Title game. The wide receiver corps should be more experienced and with the offense back to a respectable level, the Sooners should be able to pull into Dallas with a 10-2 record at worst.

7. Iowa: the hopes of the Hawkeyes will be answered if the offensive line stays healthy. I don’t see Wisconsin beating this Iowa team but road trips to Michigan and Northwestern could be deal breakers. The home date against the Buckeyes comes late in the season and it could certainly be a situation where both teams are undefeated at that point if they avoid major slip ups.

8. Texas Christian: The Horned Frogs have a breezy schedule, facing Oregon State and Baylor out of conference in addition to a Mountain West schedule where the only major road block is a trip to Utah which shouldn’t be too bad considering the Utes lost a huge chunk of their defense to graduation. However, TCU has flaws. Losing DE Jerry hughes and a number of big names on defense could be dangerous in a Mountain West that has some pretty high octane offenses. There aren’t a lot of games on the schedule that jump out as prime time material but, as a whole, the slate is very grinding with a lot of teams good enough to give TCU fits on a bad day. It will be difficult for TCU to avoid at least one slip up this season.

9. Oregon: The Ducks lost QB Jeremiah Masoli and will need to replace him quickly if they want to defeat USC and win a second straight Pac 10 Title. The Ducks defense was suspect at times last season and the unit will have to improve in order to give Oregon a chance to repeat. The schedule isn’t horrible, especially considering that there really aren’t a whole lot of really good teams in the Pac 10 this season. However the road trips to Knoxville, Corvalis, Tempe, and L.A. could be back breakers.

10. Wisconsin: The Badgers have arguably the best running back trio north of Tuscaloosa and a quarterback in Scott Tolzein who is good enough game manager to keep the Badgers in every contest. The defensive back seven isn’t on the same level as Iowa or Ohio State but the front four should be good again and the offensive line should control the ball well enough to keep the Badger defense off the field for long periods of time. The Badgers have Ohio State and a road trip to Iowa City in back to back weeks as well as a road trip to a sneaky good Michigan State team to deal with. Wisconsin has had trouble in Ann Arbor as well so it will be interesting to see if the Badgers can get over the hump this year and land in a BCS bowl game.

11. Texas: Someone needs to call the schedule police on the Longhorns. Texas only plays three true road games along with neutral site games against Rice in Houston and in Dallas against Oklahoma. Losing offensive mainstays Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley will hurt, especially since there is no run game to fall back on. The defense should still be pretty good but the loss of Sergio Kindle along with several other NFL playmakers will signify a definite drop in talent. Overall, the Longhorns have a cushy schedule but Texas hasn’t proven that it is a reloading program yet (see going to the Alamo Bowl the year after Vince Young left) and I think the personnel losses will be too much for the Longhorns to repeat in the Big XII.

12. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets did lose Jonathan Dwyer and a couple of defensive standouts but they were barely touched by graduation so the losses don’t sting much. While many of the stars are gone, the supporting cast is almost entirely back which should bode well for the guys who plan on filling in for the lost starters. The schedule might be the only thing to stop the Ramblin’ Wreck, which has to take road trips to North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Georgia.

13. Nebraska: Alright look, I realize Bo Pelini is a great defensive coach, I do. But when you look at the stats for Ndamukong Suh, there is just no way you are going to replace that. Add in the fact that the Huskers lost defensive standouts Larry Asante and Matt O’Hanlon (who were the unsung heroes of this defense) and the fact that the Huskers offense was abysmal last season, and you have the recipe for an over rated team. Nebraska will be good, but the National Title talk is not realistic and winning the Big XII is not a given. The Huskers are the team to beat in the Big XII North and they could certainly make a BCS run with their schedule, but don’t think for a second that the game at home against Texas or on the road against Washington and Texas A&M are givens.

14. North Carolina: The Tar Heels have one heck of a defense but are still struggling to find an offense to go with it. The offensive line needs rebuilding after losing three starters and someone is going to have to step up and make plays. However, with a bye week to prepare for Georgia Tech’s triple option and the only other difficult home contest being against Virginia Tech, I think this team can get to nine or10 wins and perhaps challenge for the ACC crown.

15. Louisiana State: The Tigers are going to have to make up for losses on defense and along the offensive line but the defense has proven it can reload and the offensive line losses are not totally disastrous. There is a neutral site game against North Carolina as well as trips to Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas but the only other road trip is to Vanderbilt and the Tigers don’t have to deal with South Carolina or Georgia out of the East division.

16. Miami: The Hurricanes really didn’t lose a whole lot from last season’s top 25 team. Without any
major holes to fill the Hurricanes have reason to hope for a better finish if their team picks up the toughness they lacked in the loss to Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl. However, with trips to Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Clemson, and Georgia Tech to go along with home games against Florida State, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech, this team will have a hard time making it through the schedule without a few losses.

17. Oregon State: This is an extremely difficult spot to pick. On one hand the Beavers return a large corps of a team that was pretty good last season. On the other hand, there is a big void at the quarterback position, something the Beavers have not dealt with well in the past, and the team last year had only three wins over bowl teams. The Beavers get Oregon, USC, and California at home but have a neutral site game against TCU and a road contest at Boise State to go along with conference road trips to Arizona, Washington, and Stanford. Word out of spring practice is that the quarterback situation may be alright so I am taking a gamble and saying the Beavers will overcome the history at that position and a rough schedule for a nice season.

18. Michigan State: The Spartans have the schedule and the personnel to be extremely dangerous this season. Yeah I know they have some extremely off the field issues to deal with but the talent on this team is undeniable. Greg Jones, the most decorated player in the Big Ten last year, comes back to lead a loaded front seven and the new continuity at quarterback should streamline the offense. They miss Ohio State on the schedule and, outside of a questionable Notre Dame team, don’t have any major threats in the non-conference. Trips to Penn State and Iowa are going to be extremely rough but this team is built to give Wisconsin trouble at home and the rest of the slate looks manageable.

19. Stanford: The Cardinal returns the majority of its’ starters from its’ 8-5 team last year. Heralded quarterback Andrew Luck will be trying to key a passing attack that will not have the help from Toby Gerhardt, who graduated, and the ground game that they had last year. Still, a fairly puffy schedule and a solid nucleus in place could mean a big season for the Cardinal.

20. Virginia Tech: A lot of people are going to disagree with the Hokies being this low on the list, but really, this wasn’t a great team last year either. Virginia Tech coasted on their usually stout defense and a middling offense to wins. Now, with a large number of defenders leaving and a number of big losses along the offensive line, the Hokies will be trying to do it again with a less experienced team. I realize this coaching staff’s reputation is well earned, but the reality is that there are so many losses on this team that it is unrealistic to expect the team to make a lot of big steps forward next season at this point.

21. Pittsburgh: The Panthers bring back Dion Lewis who was extremely explosive at RB, but the loss of Bill Stull at quarterback, numerous holes on the defense, and an extremely difficult schedule make it difficult to put too much faith in Pittsburgh. Trips to Notre Dame, Utah, Connecticut, South Florida, and Cincinnati as well as home dates against Miami and West Virginia make this a bear of a schedule. The talent level looks high enough to easily dispatch most of the lower tier teams without incident, but there are just so many talented teams on that schedule that even 9-3 may be difficult. However, the conference slate is soft enough that the Panthers could lose three games out of conference and still win the Big East.

22. Arkansas: The Razorbacks have a boat load of talent returning on offense including standout quarterback Ryan Mallet. However, the defense was mediocre last season and, despite several returning starters, is a major question mark coming into the season. If the defense can step it up and if the offense can improve as expected, the Hogs could have a dynamite season ahead of them. The schedule isn’t too difficult, with road trips to Georgia, Auburn, and South Carolina along with a neutral site game against Texas A&M. None of those are bad programs but Arkansas should have the better team and could manage a 3-1 record in those contests if it plays up to it’s potential. Splitting the home games against LSU and Alabama could even put the Hogs in the driver’s seat in the SEC West.

23. Houston: The Cougars’ offense returns stud quarterback Case Keenum and almost all of their offense from 2009. The defense losses 5 starters, mostly in the back seven, but the Cougars should be able to outscore everyone on their schedule anyway. There will be a couple slip ups, especially with trips to Southern Miss, UCLA, and Texas Tech on the docket. However, with Skip Holtz and East Carolina likely out of commission, Houston is the safe bet to become the Conference USA champion next year.

24. South Florida: Hear me out on this, the Bulls have an experienced team, a talented new coach, and play in a Big East Conference that is wide open this season. Skip Holtz was fantastic at developing consistency at East Carolina and he now inherits a team that has been a few inconsistent performances away from being a Big East contender. Matt Grothe is gone but he was injured most of 2009 anyway. BJ Daniels will be starting at quarterback and he has the raw talent to become a solid quarterback for the Bulls. The defensive line losses every starter and the three more starters in the back seven including NFL safety Nate Allen. However, there is some experienced talent on the roster and Holtz did a good job of developing his defense at East Carolina. The Bulls are a year or two away from challenging the other big teams in the state, but the only conference road games are against a rebuilding Cincinnati and Louisville as well as a solid but not great West Virginia, meaning the Bulls could make some noise in the conference if they take care of business in Tampa.

25. West Virginia: As I said before, the Mountaineers are not the prettiest girl on the block, but they should be good enough to deal with all but the best teams in the Big East. West Virginia will be looking for solutions at QB after the graduation of Jarrett Brown, but Noel Devine returns alongside most of last season’s starters on both sides of the ball. There are trips to LSU, Connecticut, and Pittsburgh to negotiate which could be tricky for this team. However, outside of homedates against South Florida and Rutgers there really aren’t many other major tests for this team on the schedule.