WBB Big Ten Tournament: Would You Rather.....

The Big Ten has been extremely tough this season in women's basketball which means that the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis will be really difficult.  If the Iowa Women are going to navigate the minefield seeding is everything.

I am not sure if you are familiar with the game "Would you Rather?" but it basically presents two (often disturbing but not always) scenarios in which a person chooses which would hypothetically be the easier to endure.  An example would be something like, "would you rather beat Nebraska or Wisconsin in a football game?".

I bring this up because seeding for the Big Ten tournament is decidedly a "pick your poison" type situation.  To understand this, here are the Big Ten standings (as of right now):

1. Michigan State 12-2 (24-3)
2. Penn State 10-4 (21-7)
3. Michigan 9-5 (16-10)
4. Wisconsin 9-5 (14-12)
5. Iowa 8-6 (20-7)
6. Purdue 8-6 (18-9)
7. Ohio State 7-6 (16-9)
8. Northwestern 6-9 (17-11)
9. Minnesota 3-11 (11-16)
10. Indiana 3-11 (9-17)
11. Illinois 2-12 (7-20)


Purdue and Ohio State are playing as I write this so things could change based on the outcome of that game.  The Hawkeyes host Illinois Thursday and travel to Indiana Sunday to close out the season so an Iowa sweep should be expected.  If The Hawkeyes do stumble (and if it happens my money would be on the road game in Bloomington since Indiana has been tougher at home and Iowa has struggled away from Carver at times) then Purdue or Ohio State could jump into the number five spot by winning out.  Purdue still has to play at Penn State and the Buckeyes still have to travel to East Lansing so I doubt either will win out, but just for clarification if Iowa losses and Purdue or Ohio State win out then Iowa would fall to the number six spot and would face the number 11 and number 3 seeds in the first two rounds.

So what will the bracket probably look like? Well here are the givens

1. Michigan State locked up the number 1 overall seed with a win over Illinois today.
2. Penn State hosts Purdue and Northwestern to end the season and should win both games.  They would need to lose both in order to be anything other than the number one seed.
3. Unless Iowa losses, Purdue and Ohio State will split the six and seven seeds.
4. Minnesota, Indiana, and Illinois do not play each anyone outside of the top five in the conference the rest of the way and it is unlikely that any of them will win another game (though we will talk about the possibility).

That leaves seeds 3-5 for Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa and this is where we get to our game of would you rather.  Wisconsin still has to play Ohio State and will more than likely lose that game on the road so if the Hawkeyes take care of business they should be no worse than the four seed (which is irrelevant since four and five play each other in the second round).  Wisconsin plays Indiana in Madison first and since I don't think Ohio State or Purdue will win out that means Wisconsin will finish no lower than fifth. 

Michigan is the wild card here.  The Wolverines host Minnesota (who they lost to on the road 60-50) and travel to Illinois (who they beat 69-59).  Hypothetically Michigan should win both of these games, but Michigan has been a really difficult team to peg (sweeping Ohio State and losing to Minnesota and Purdue).  The possibility they could drop one of those games is very real.

So what would that mean for Iowa?  Well again assuming the Hawkeyes win out, it means Iowa has a slim chance at the three team for the Big Ten women's basketball tournament.  However, that may not be a good thing.  The three seed plays the six seed in the second round and the two seed after that while the four/five game winner will have to play the number one seed in the semifinal.  In essence, would you rather play Ohio State/Purdue followed by Penn State, or Wisconsin followed by Michigan State?

Let's break down the options:

1. Iowa gets the #3 seed
Positives: The Hawkeyes would be in a familiar position, they were the 3 seed last year.  Looking ahead to the second round, even though Iowa got swept by Penn State, the Hawkeyes have a much better shot at beating the Lions than the Spartans.  Iowa beat Penn State in the tournament last year after being swept by the Nittany Lions during the regular season so a repeat could be in order.  Purdue has been horrible away from Mackey this year and, even though the game is in Indianapolis, the different venue could prove to be enough for Iowa to knock off the Boilermakers.  Ohio State has also struggled away from home so the Hawkeyes could have an edge in the first round.

Negatives: Would you really want to play Ohio State or Purdue early?  Those coaching staffs have the best tournament resumes in the entire conference and both teams have the horses to beat just about anyone.  Also, beating Penn State is not a given and the team they are fielding this year is much stronger offensively than their squad last year.  Even scarier is if Penn State were knocked off in the first round and the three seed would have to take on Ohio State and Purdue back to back.  Teams who play in the first round typically don't win the Big Ten tournament (to my knowledge no team without a first round bye has won the tournament but I am too lazy to check).  Both teams are talented and will be playing with a lot of fire coming in so it would probably be best to avoid them as much as possible.

2. Iowa gets the #4/5 seed
Positives: The first round with Wisconsin is about as close to a lock as Iowa can get.  The Badgers just do not match up well with Iowa and the Hawkeyes should be coming in on a winning streak with plenty of swagger.  Iowa has beaten Michigan State this year and both times they played the Spartans the game came down to the very last possession.  While MSU certainly isn't an ideal second round opponent this year, they are someone the Hawks know they can beat.

Negatives: If Wisconsin manages to win out and Michigan manages to lose one of their games the Hawkeyes will be stuck playing Kevin Borseth's squad.  Michigan isn't unbeatable but they would be far from ideal match up with the way that they are playing as a team.  Michigan State is a known commodity but the Hawks will probably want to avoid playing Sparty until the last possible moment simply because Michigan State is so good.  The Spartans did lose at Iowa but they showed in both of their games they have the defensive horsepower to really deny the Hawks from generating on offense.

My conclusion
It is a tough call, but I would prefer the most likely first round win and that is the #4 or #5 seed option.  It is more likely than the first option and, even though Sparty will be a tough match up, I feel like Iowa would have a good chance at knocking off the green and white if they were coming in to that game with loads of confidence which they might be if they were on a six game win streak (which they could be if they won out and beat the Badgers).  Neither is ideal, but if Iowa can use these last two games to get some swagger going then the Hawkeyes certainly have a shot at capturing a title.