Big Ten Women's Tournament Bracket Set

With the conclusion of this afternoon's games we now know the seeding (unless I yet again failed to understand the tournament seeding process but I think I got it this time). 

Here are your match ups

Day 1:
Game 1: 7 Purdue v. 10 Indiana
Game 2: 6 Wisconsin v. 11 Illinois
Game 3: 8 Northwestern v. 9. Minnesota

Day 2
Game 4: 2 Penn State v. Game 2 winner
Game 5: 3 Michigan v. Game 1 winner
Game 6: 1 Michigan State v. Game 3 winner
Game 7: 4 Iowa v. 5 Ohio State

You can figure it out pretty much from there.  The first round again looks to be pretty uneventful.  Northwestern v. Minnesota is really the only one of those games which looks competitive on paper but with the injuries the Badgers have had there is a possibility for a game one upset.  Only Purdue looks like a team which could make noise beyond the first day while the other winners will likely be bounced on Friday.

The second round is another story and it gets into why I hate this seeding process.  MSU, OSU, and Iowa are easily three of your best four teams (and maybe your best three) and they are all on the same side of the bracket.  Michigan State probably doesn't have a whole lot to complain about but OSU and Iowa fans should be pissed about having to hold a rematch of last year's championship game right off the bat. 

What that means is that this is an incredibly unbalanced bracket with the upper half being distinctly softer than the lower half.  That is perfect for teams like Purdue and Penn State who are two of the better teams in the conference and will basically only have to worry about each other (and maybe Michigan) on the road to the title game.  Here is what I see happening:

Day 1
Wisconsin over Illinois: The Badgers are on a huge downswing but Illinois is just plain bad.
Purdue over Indiana: The Boilers are incredibly dangerous and could be a dark horse in the tournament
Minnesota over Northwestern: This is a toss up but the Gophers offense is less likely to come out cold after the layoff.

Day 2Purdue over Penn State: Boilermakers already beat the Lions in Happy Valley.  I think they pull another upset in Indy.
Michigan over Wisconsin: The Wolverines caught a massive break as the no. 3 seed.  I think they take care of Wisconsin.
Michigan State over Minnesota: Easy pick.
Iowa over Ohio State: Partially a homer pick, but Iowa is also coming into this game hot and the Hawkeyes and this game could come down to who is shooting better that day.

Day 3Purdue over Michigan: The Wolverines are clearly not as good as the Boilermakers who ride through a far lighter side of the bracket to reach the finals.
Iowa over Michigan State: Iowa will not be intimidated by the Spartans and I think Iowa can take this over early.  The Hawkeyesare hitting their stride and I think that helps them past Sparty

ChampionshipIowa over Purdue: Purdue's coaching staff has a fantastic tournament resume, but that doesn't change the fact that no team has won the Big Ten Tournament without a first round bye.  Iowa might be a little gassed but Purdue will likely be even more so and I think Iowa pulls away late to seal the victory. 

Obviously there is a level of homerism there but in all honesty Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, and Purdue are the teams to watch.  Michigan might fly under the radar but even if they make the title game they are going to have to contend with a team who is bigger and playing better right now than they are so they are just barely out of it for me. 

It does seem a little counter intuitive that the two hottest teams have to play each other in their first game but those are the rules and if Illinois would have been able avoid costly fouls and turnovers we could be talking about a far more balanced tournament instead of one where three of the four favorites are on one side of the bracket. 

Nonetheless, tune in Thursday as we kick off the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis.