Week One Bowl Predictions

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:


1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: LSU v. Virginia Tech
I am sticking with the Tigers who blew Oregon out of the water in Dallas.  The team put up 40 points on a top five opponent without their starting quarterback.  Granted there are a lot of underlying issues with that statement (Jordan Jefferson wasn't exactly setting the world on fire at quarterback, Oregon really needed to reload on defense) but the Tigers looked good.  The Hokies get here by running the table in the ACC and taking out the Seminoles in the title game.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State v. Oregon
The Buckeyes were in classic form with a shutout overa terrible Akron team.  We still don't know if tOSU is capable of beating the top tier teams but they still look like the most well rounded Big Ten team and they get their biggest challenge (Wisconsin) on the road.  I am not wild about Stanford or Arizona State and Utah looked very beatable this week so Oregon will stay here for now despite losing to LSU.  The defense needs to improve significantly if they want to stay here.

 
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Boise State
The third pick in a row which hasn't changed since the preseason.  Alabama has the tools to go to the national title game but I still want to see their young offense play a real team before I move them ahead of the Tigers.  With a trip to Penn State on deck Alabama has the opportunity to make a shift here.  Congratulations Boise, you beat one of only three decent teams you will beat all season (though for all we know the Bulldogs are headed for another losing year).  Air Force and TCU might play the Broncos tough but they don't need to play starters against the rest of their schedule so they should be well rested for those games.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma v. WisconsinThe Badgers left quite an impression on Thursday night and I am more convinced they will be able to make quite a bit of noise in the Big Ten.  Oklahoma wins the Big XII but, being the Sooners, it is almost impossible to not see them dropping some random game that they shouldn't (Baylor looks like a possibility).  The Sooners could end up in the title game but I am starting to believe the Hokies are more likely to finish number two.

Orange Bowl: South Florida v. Florida StateFlorida State gets the nod here as the 11-2 ACC runner up.  Not much to say about the Seminoles right now since shutting out ULM is hardly something to get excited about.  USF had a huge win over the Irish in South Bend Saturday.  I have been high on the Bulls for the past few years and BJ Daniels looks like he is finally ready for a monster season.  The Bulls will win the Big East and might actually generate some hype for this intra-state matchup.

Capital One Bowl: Nebraska v. South Carolina
I am not sold on the Huskers yet but I am going to wait and see what happens to them when they open up conference play before moving them (unless they experience an unexpected loss in their breezy non-conference slate).  South Carolina looked like they might struggle a bit on defense after their shootout with ECU Saturday but I still think they will power past Georgia this week and take care of the Gators at home which should give them the SEC East crown.

Outback Bowl: Iowa v. FloridaI think the Outback Bowl will go with the Hawkeyes instead of a rematch between Florida and Penn State but don't sleep on Nittany Lions taking this spot either.  Nothing really to say about Iowa's win over Tennessee Tech this week other than Marvin McNutt looked great.  After watching Georgia get manhandled by Boise I think the Gators have a real shot to pass the Bulldogs as the number two team in the SEC East.

Insight Bowl: Penn State v. Oklahoma State
The Nittany Lions had a nice win this week but the real test is Saturday as the host the Crimson Tide.  A win there would catapult them up this board which is looking very top heavy.  With Texas A&M moving out of the BCS the Big XII lineup shifts.  I still think Texas makes a bowl game somehow and gets picked over the Cowboys but don't be surprised to see the Longhorns here if they fail to get eight wins.

Gator Bowl: Michigan State v. Georgia
Sparty gets the nod here over other Big Ten teams that were unimpressive this weekend since they have the most potential, but this might be the line between the good and mediocre teams in the conference.  I really want to pick Tennessee here since I think they might be a darkhorse team in the league but the Vols have a brutal cross over schedule (LSU, at Alabama, at Arkansas) so I am going to peg the Bulldogs as third in the SEC East.

Texas Bowl: Michigan v. Baylor
The Wolverines were alright in Saturday's rain shortened contest against Western Michigan but the real test is this week as they host Notre Dame under the lights in Ann Arbor.  Baylor shocked the college football world by beating TCU and I think that gives them an excellent shot at seven wins and a second straight bowl berth.

Ticket City Bowl: Illinois v. SMU
The Illini got a slow win over Arkansas State and I think they could be dangerous team in the Leaders division this fall. Still, it is hard to pick them over PSU, OSU, and Wisconsin who all look like deeper, more talented teams.  Southern Methodist is one of many Conference USA options for this bowl so don't be surprised to see the non-Big Ten team in this fluctuate quite a bit.

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Northwestern v. Ohio

Northwestern got a win over Boston College though both teams were without their best players.  I think they actually manage seven and maybe even eight wins but lack of television interest and a small traveling fan base relegates them to Detroit.  Ohio looked very good over the weekend, beating NMSU 44-24 on the road and I am slowly buying them as the MAC winner.