Monday, January 14, 2013

Big Ten Basketball Power Rankings: Week Three

New this year, the Big Ten basketball Power Rankings will come out once a month during the preseason (once in November and once in December) and every week during the Big Ten season. 

1. Indiana (15-1, 3-0)
The boys in the candy stripped pants are back on top this week and, frankly, it seems hard to believe they ever left this spot.  The Hoosiers played one of the most dominant first halves of basketball anyone has played all year against Minnesota and, despite a late comeback, they managed to get a major win in that game.  Wisconsin and at Northwestern are the next two on the docket for Indiana and it would be surprising if either team posed a challenge.  The Badgers have not been a great road team and Northwestern is terrible so IU should be on cruise control until the 27th when they host Michigan State. 

2. Minnesota (15-2, 3-1)
The Gophers lost to Indiana but their second half comeback in Bloomington was impressive.  Add to that a nice road victory over Illinois and the Gophers look every bit the part of a conference title contender.  Up next is Michigan at The Barn in a game that will be very telling as to whether the Gophers truly belong here. 

3. Michigan (16-1, 3-1)
Road losses don't come any tougher than the one Michigan suffered to nemesis Ohio State on Sunday.  The Wolverines had their worst offensive performance of the season in Columbus.  Even worse, Go Blue started last week with a dud against lowly Nebraska where they set what was their season low in points before they traveled to Ohio on Sunday.  Michigan looks very much like previous flawed Beilein squads that rely too heavily on the three.  Sure this team is more talented than previous iterations of this team and they are somewhat more versatile, but this week really brought into question whether the Wolverines can cut it on offense against some of the top tier defenses in the league.

4. Michigan State (14-3, 3-1)
These next four spots are pretty much up for grabs as the Spartans, Illini, Buckeyes, and Badgers have all been hit or miss.  I am putting MSU here since I had them here last week and because, even though they have been playing lower ranked teams incredibly close recently, they still seem to have the best resume of the four teams listed.  Tom Izzo's club travels to Penn State on Wednesday before coming home to face the Buckeyes which is the start of a brutal four game stretch to end the month. 

5. Ohio State (13-3, 3-1)
The Buckeyes had an impressive win at home against Michigan on Sunday.  Thad Matta gets the week off to prepare his team for their road trip to East Lansing and a win there would put the Buckeyes back into the conversation for a Big Ten title.  This team is still flawed in that DeShaun Thomas is still there only major offensive threat but the Buckeyes are playing very solid defense at home and they will be incredibly difficult to beat this season.

6. Wisconsin (12-4, 3-0)
Slowly but surely the Badgers are climbing back into the discussion of being a top tier team in the Big Ten.  They still have only played one ranked team, defeating the struggling Illini on Saturday at home, but Wisconsin is going to have plenty of opportunities to prove they belong up here in the coming weeks as the grueling mid section of their schedule continues.  Up next is are back to back road trips to Bloomington and Iowa City, the latter representing one of only two games against unranked teams the Badgers will play until late February (the other being a home date with the Hawkeyes).  A split here is probably a must given that Wisconsin probably will need some road wins against teams like Iowa to balance potential home losses against teams like Minnesota and Michigan. 

7. Illinois (14-4, 1-3)
No team had a worse week than Illinois who dropped games at home to Minnesota and at Wisconsin that will probably knock them out of the conference title discussion early.  Like Michigan this team has been over reliant on the three point shot this season but, unlike the Wolverines, Coach Groce's squad just doesn't have the skill yet to score inside with regularity when three's aren't falling.  The Illini will look to get back on track when they host in-state rival Northwestern on Thursday, their only game this week.  Northwestern is even weaker in the post than Illinois so this should be an easy win but if Illinois fails to defend the three they could be looking at potentially facing another second half collapse.

8. Iowa (12-5, 1-3)
The loss to Michigan State at home on Thursday was frustrating as Iowa was without star player Devyn Marble and still came within three of the Spartans.  However, Sunday's annihilation of Northwestern was a breath of fresh air which showed the Hawkeyes are still a dangerous team.  They get the week off before hosting Wisconsin and then going back on the road to Ohio State and Purdue.  A 1-2 split in this part of the schedule is likely (the difficulty in Iowa's schedule doesn't really ease up until February) but more would be big for the Hawks who need to find some big wins to start building an NCAA tournament resume.

9. Purdue (8-8, 2-2)
Not much has changed with Purdue since the last version of these rankings.  They soundly beat a terrible Penn State team at home and will travel to Nebraska for a sneaky tough road trip on Wednesday before hosting West Virginia on Saturday.  The schedule is back-loaded with ranked teams including six games against the top three teams in these rankings.  Unless the Boilers get some major upsets and manage to win some of their road trips to schools like Iowa and Wisconsin this team is not going to be able to have a shot at a postseason tournament of any kind.

10. Nebraska (9-8, 0-4)
This might come as a shock but Nebraska has quietly been playing very well recently.  Their four conference losses have come against Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan with only one of those games (Wisconsin) being in Lincoln and only one of the games (Ohio State) wasn't at least somewhat close.  The Huskers get Purdue at home on Wednesday before traveling to State College.  I am betting that Nebraska can sweep those two games.  In fact, with Illinois and Northwestern at home the following week, there is a solid chance Big Red could manage a four game winning streak before traveling to Minneapolis on the 29th. 

11. Northwestern (10-7, 1-3)
Don't let the record fool you, the Wildcats lone conference win came against moribund Penn State and their 20 point home loss to Iowa was far worse than anything Nebraska has done in conference.  Northwestern was dominated in the paint by Iowa and the three pointers were just not falling.  Bill Carmody's M.O. since he got to Evanston has been ball control and efficient shooting, but when teams are dominating you in the paint and getting easy dunks and layups you can't rely on three point shooting night in and night out.  Northwestern's defense was terrible Sunday and if Carmody wants to save his job he had better get it figured out soon as the Cats play Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota in their next three games.

12. Penn State (8-8, 0-4)
The long march of the season continues on for Penn State.  This team got blown out at home by Northwestern last week and then fell by 18 at Purdue.   There really doesn't appear to be any redeeming characteristic to this Penn State team and at this point it would be surprising if they managed more than one or two conference wins if they get any at all.

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