2013 Bowl Projections Week 11

The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship

2) National Championship

3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick

5) Orange Bowl

6) Sugar Bowl
7) Fiesta Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Florida State v. Alabama

I think Oregon will lose a game somewhere along the way as will Alabama.  The Tide win the SEC title game though and they take on the undefeated Seminoles in the National title game.

Rose Bowl: Michigan State v. Stanford
The Spartans end up winning the Big Ten title, upsetting undefeated Ohio State and keeping the Buckeyes out of the National Title Game.  The Cardinal won in Autzen last season and I think they manage to defeat the Ducks again in Palo Alto this year sending them to Pasadena to face the Spartans.

Sugar Bowl: Auburn v. UCF

The Sugar Bowl could take a Big XII team here like Texas Tech or Texas if those teams remained competitive but I don't think either of those teams will finished ranked high enough to merit a selection over 11-1 Oregon.  Auburn is here for as Alabama's replacement after going 10-2.

Fiesta Bowl: Baylor v. Northern Illinois

Worst. Fiesta Bowl. Ever.  The Bears suffer a loss but still manage to get the Big XII's Fiesta Bowl berth.  Fresno State loses it's rematch with Boise State in the MWC Championship Game to keep the Bulldogs out of the BCS.

 

 Orange Bowl: Clemson v. Ohio State

The Buckeyes have only one loss on the season but they are a national name that travels extremely well and wasn't in a bowl game last year which maeks them the obvious first at large selection.  I have Clemson being taken as Florida State's replacement but don't be surprised if they take Miami, Oregon, or Baylor instead.

Capital One Bowl: Wisconsin v. Missouri

The Badgers haven't been to Florida in a number of years and they travel pretty well so they would be a good opponent to offset the SEC East Champions.  The Tigers would be a required pick here for the Citrus Bowl and

Outback Bowl: Minnesota v. South Carolina

If everything plays out like I think it will to this point the Outback Bowl has an interesting problem.  I think Michigan finishes with a better record than the Huskers but they were here last year and played the obvious SEC East opponent South Carolina.  Furthermore, the Gamecocks recently played Nebraska in a bowl game as well so I think the Outback tabs Minnesota who finishes the year at 8-4.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Nebraska v. Oklahoma

I think the Sooners lose to Baylor and then split with Oklahoma State and Kansas State to end up here.  They are an easy choice for the BBWs bowl and Nebraska provides a rivalry rematch that will draw a lot of television attention.

 
 Gator Bowl: Michigan v. LSU

The Wolverines get blasted by Ohio State to end the season so that drops them here despite having a better record than the Huskers.  They face off against the LSU Tigers who are selected over Ole Miss (the Rebels would be the most likely alternate in this scenario).

 
Meineke Car Care Bowl: Iowa v. Kansas State

The Iowa Hawkeyes end the season at 7-5 and are rewarded with a match up against the 7-5 Wildcats.  Iowa would have an opportunity to make the Outback Bowl in this scenario if they won out but I don't think that will happen.

Heart of Dallas Bowl: Northwestern v. North Texas
I have the Wildcats getting an upset over Michigan before beating Illinois to get to six wins.  Northwestern should have won it's last three games but injuries and bad luck have decimated this team.  I still believe they can find some momentum coming off of this bye week.  If not, Illinois also has a shot at this spot.

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: UNLV v. Ohio

No Big Ten team here so UNLV jumps in as a replacement and squares off against Ohio.

 


 

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Texas v. Texas A&M

Yeah I know there will be some politics against this but Johnny Manziel's final game in college against playing against the Aggies' biggest rival?  This would be bigger than most of the BCS match ups.  If the Aggies and Longhorns are both on the board here expect a massive push for this game to happen.  LSU, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma State are all possible alternates here.

Chick Fil-A Bowl: Georgia v. Miami

The Peach Bowl folks will hold their nose and take the Canes (who don't travel) but then tab the Bulldogs as the opponent to fill the stadium.  Georgia could be replaced by Ole Miss or LSU but I think the fact that the Bulldogs are on the board here makes them the obvious pick.  Virginia Tech could possibly be here as well.

Valero Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State v. Oregon

By virtue of falling out of the BCS Oregon ends up here where they face the Cowboys.  Look for Stanford and Arizona State as other possibilities here from the PAC 12 depending on what happens with the BCS.

Russell Athletics Bowl: Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech

The Irish are essentially a lock here and their opponent will either be Virginia Tech or Miami depending which team the Peach Bowl selects. 

Holiday Bowl: Arizona State v. Texas Tech
The Sun Devils are the next team off the board since UCLA was in this game last year.  Their opponent is Texas Tech who is the last of the eight win or more Big XII teams to be taken for a bowl game.
 
Hyundai Sun Bowl: UCLA v. Boston College

 USC and Georgia Tech played in this game last year so this season the Sun Bowl eschews those teams and selects UCLA and BC instead as the best alternatives to those teams.

Belk Bowl: Georgia Tech v. Louisville

Louisville misses the BCS and is the first team selected from the AAC.  Georgia Tech is the automatic choice from the ACC as they are the biggest name remaining on the board from that conference.

Music City Bowl: Ole Miss v. Duke

Ole Miss is the required selection here from the SEC as no other team will be that close to them in wins.  Duke is the best remaining ACC team so they become the selection from that conference.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: West Virginia v. Rutgers

West Virginia is the last Big XII team to make a bowl game and they end up back in New York facing former Big East rival Rutgers.  The Scarlet Knights get this bid more by virtue of their proximity to New York than their record.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Vanderbilt v. East Carolina

While Tennessee, if they get six wins, would be the preferred pick for the Liberty Bowl Vanderbilt gets in with a better overall record.  They face Conference USA champion East Carolina.

 
Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: Tennessee v. Maryland

The Volunteers sneak into a bowl game with a 6-6 record and their reward is the Demon Deacons out of the ACC. 

Maaco Bowl Las Vegas: USC v. Boise State

The Broncos win the MWC Title game and their reward is a fourth straight trip to the Las Vegas Bowl where they face USC.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: BYU v. Oregon State

BYU has already accepted their bid to this bowl so the question becomes who will they play.  The Beaver's offense has been explosive and I think they end up being the choice in this bowl.

Military Bowl: Pittsburgh v. MarshallPitt can't seem to escape crappy bowl games even in the ACC.  They end up here as the last selection out of that league.  The Thundering Herd are close by and should actually bring a couple of fans to this game so they would likely be the preferred opponent out of Conference USA.

Poinsettia Bowl: Toledo v. Fresno State

The Rockets take this spot from Army who will not get bowl eligible this season.  The Bulldogs end up here after falling to Boise State in the conference championship game.

New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State v. Washington

Washington rounds out the bowl bids for Pac 12 teams and they take on Colorado State and the Rams in New Mexico.  Utah State is also a possibility here out of the Mountain West.

Armed Forces Bowl: Utah State v. Navy
Navy will get in here and they face off against Utah State who gets selected here because of their proximity to the bowl site in Fort Worth relative to other possible candidates who would all have to travel here from California.

 
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State v. Rice

The Hawaii Bowl takes San Diego State over San Jose State and they match the Aztecs up with Rice.  The Owls are sort of the odd child out in Conference USA's convoluted selection procedure in my estimation but this is very fluid.

BBVA Compass Bowl: Houston v. Troy

The Cougars are picked over Cincinnati for this bowl but playing the Trojans is hardly a prize.

 


Beef O'Brady's Bowl: Middle Tennessee State v. Cincinnati
Conference USA match up against the AAC. 

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Tulane v. Louisiana Lafayette

The New Orleans Bowl grabs Tulane out of the AAC and matches them up with ULL for an all Louisiana New Orleans Bowl which should guarantee some pretty good attendance.

 
Go Daddy.com Bowl: Louisiana Monroe v. Ball State

The runner up from the Sun Belt against the runner up from the MAC.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Bowling Green v. San Jose State
San Jose State gets the last automatic bid from the Mountain West and they face Bowling Green.