Bowl Predictions Week 11

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is


1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Sugar Bowl
6) Orange Bowl
7) Fiesta Bowl


Remember that the Rose Bowl, if it loses the Big Ten or Pac 10 representative must take the first non-AQ school.

BCS National Championship: Oregon v. Auburn

The Ducks are not going to lose to Arizona or Oregon State so I am about ready to put them in here in pen.  Auburn is tricky but mostly because they will likely lose benefit of the doubt with the voters if they lose to Alabama in two weeks.  The Cam Newton situation could really have an impact as to whether a one loss SEC team goes to the National Title or an undefeated Mid Major.

Rose Bowl Game: Wisconsin v. Boise State

Remember how big the Utah game was supposed to be?  Notre Dame 28 Utah 3.  TCU struggling to beat San Diego State  (which actually wouldn't be a big deal if TCU played a normal schedule since the Aztecs are a solid team and it would be forgiven) and their marquee win losing a lot of luster just opened up the door for Boise to beat one loss Nevada and jump the Horned Frogs.

Sugar Bowl: LSU v. Ohio State

If the Tigers beat Arkansas this is pretty much a lock unless South Carolina wins the SEC Championship Game.  Right now I have Ohio State winning out and getting the nod over one loss Michigan State.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia

If the Mountaineers win the Big East I think they get the nod here over TCU since the WVU fanbase tends to travel fairly well.  If TCU goes to the Rose Bowl then Boise State will be out of the Orange Bowl if Virginia Tech wins the ACC.

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska v. TCU

The Fiesta Bowl getting Nebraska and their swarm of fans opens up the door for TCU who would cause a riot amongst BCS detractors if they were left out of the BCS after going undefeated.

Capital One Bowl: Michigan State v. Alabama

Even if Alabama beats Auburn I think they are pretty much locked into this position right now.  I  still have Michigan State losing to Penn State in Happy Valley but everyone below them will have four losses so they will likely stay here.

Outback Bowl: Iowa v. South Carolina

The Outback Bowl gets to pick over the South Carolina-Florida group before the Chick-Fil-A and I think they grab the Gamecocks (though Florida and Mississippi State will both be in play here).  The real drama comes with Iowa and Penn State both finishing 8-4.  I think the Outback Bowl gives the nod to Iowa with the head to head win but don't be surprised if this is another pre-bowl season of politics between the Hawkeyes and the bowl games.

Gator Bowl: Penn State v. Florida

This is intriguing because Mississippi State and Florida will both be battling for this bowl bid.  If Penn State is the Big Ten representative then the case can be made that the fans and TV ratings they will get from the Lions will open the door wider for Mississippi State who is on the upswing.  However, I think the name matchup between two big schools will be very hard to ignore even if both schools are down.

Insight Bowl: Michigan v. Missouri

I don't see Michigan beating Wisconsin next weekend or Ohio State the week after that so they drop to 7-5.  That makes them one of three 7-5 teams and I think their pedigree gets them chosen first.  Missouri falls in here between Texas A&M and Oklahoma State if they win out which seems all but assured with only Iowa State and Kansas left on the schedule.

Texas Bowl: Illinois v. Texas Tech

I have the Illini winning out which gives them the second slot of the 7-5 teams.  Tech gets the nod here over Kansas State and by virtue of being a shorter trip for the fans aswell as the larger brand name.

TicketCity Bowl: Northwestern v. Baylor

Northwestern is the last 7-5 team because of the loss of their stud player (Dan Persa) and they make the trip to Dallas to face Baylor. The Bears get passed by Kansas State for the Pinstripe Bowl because of their non-exsistent traveling fanbase. (Note: the blog is not letting me upload pictures so I will have to update the logo next week).

Little Caesers Pizza Pizza Bowl: Purdue v. Northern Illinois

No that isn't a misprint.  Iowa State would have been penciled in here had they beaten Colorado but as it stands there may be too many bowls to fill for all the elidgible teams.  This would mean that a 5-7 Purdue could likely go bowling and I think they play MAC champion  Northern Illinois in Detroit.