Bowl Predictions Week 12 (Expanded)

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship

2) National Championship

3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick

4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Sugar Bowl

6) Orange Bowl

7) Fiesta Bowl

Remember that the Rose Bowl, if it loses the Big Ten or Pac 10 representative must take the first non-AQ school.

BCS National Championship: Oregon v. Auburn

Both teams had the weekend off so I have no reason to change my prediction here.  I am fairly confident Oregon can take Arizona and Oregon State so the only way this changes is if Auburn loses in the Iron Bowl to Alabama.

Rose Bowl Game: Wisconsin v. Boise State

The Big Ten tie breaker, if MSU, OSU and UW win out, will come down to the BCS rankings and that favors Wisconsin.  The Badgers face Boise State who will jump TCU after a win over Nevada.

Sugar Bowl: LSU v. Ohio State

I have the Tigers beating Arkansas and the Buckeyes beating Michigan.  That likely gets them a ticket punched here as at-large teams in what will be one of the most hyped BCS games.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. West Virginia

This game is almost garaunteed to be the ACC Champion vs. the Big East Champion.  Pittsburgh sits in the driver's seat right now but I have the Mountaineers winning the Backyard Brawl and heading here to face the ACC Champion Hokies who will edge NC State in the ACC title game.

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska v. TCU

TCU doesn't travel well and that is why I think they end up here.  The Huskers still control their destiney in the North and I have no reason to believe Mike Gundy has found an answer to what Bob Stoops has been doing in Norman.  Stoops will meet Bo Pelini in Nebraska in the Big XII Title game and I think an emotional Huskers team edges a strong Sooner squad.

Capital One Bowl: Michigan State v. Alabama

With the exception of a win over Auburn and an LSU loss to Arkansas, the Crimson Tide is all but booked for here right now.  Michigan State winds up here after being passed over for a BCS at-large berth.

  AT&T Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma v. Arkansas

  The Cotton Bowl gets the first remaining pick from the SEC West and I think they   take the Razorbacks.  This slot is reserved for the Big XII Title game loser and I believe that this will be the Sooners.

Outback Bowl: Iowa v. Florida

I changed my mind with the SEC team here since I think the Outback ignores the head to head and grabs the team that will fill the seats.  I believe the Hawkeyes still end up here even if Penn State wins because the shool's relationship with the bowl.  Iowa has filled more than its' share of Outback Bowls and if Penn State couldn't jump Iowa last season I don't think they will this season with a team that hasn't been nearly as good.

Chick-Fil A Bowl: South Carolina v. Florida State

I originally had the Gamecocks dropping to the Gator but I think the Chick-fil a picks them over an energized Mississippi State.  I have NCSU in the Sun Bowl (more on that later) so I think the Seminoles get the nod with their fanbase and big television numbers for this slot.

Valero Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State v. Stanford

The Stanford Cardinal could possibly make the BCS as a one loss team but I think they just barely miss out and end up here against the Cowboys who will miss out on the Big XII Championship game despite being 10-2.

Gator Bowl: Penn State v. Mississippi State

I originially had South Carolina here but I think they stay ahead of the Bulldogs who fall here against the Nittany Lions.  I detailed my reasoning for Penn State getting passed if they beat Michigan State but it is also important to remember that a win against Sparty is not a given.

Champs Sports Bowl: Miami v. Pittsburgh

The Panthers fall here after their loss to the rival Mountaineers knocks them out of the BCS picture.  The Canes wind up here after NCSU winds up in the Sun Bowl (more on that later). 

Insight Bowl: Michigan v. Texas A&M

Michigan is locked at 7-5 and meets up with a Texa A&M squad that has been playing hot recently.  I originally had Missouri here but I think the Aggies will get the nod because of their upsets of Oklahoma and Nebraska as well as their sizeable fanbase.

Holiday Bowl: Missouri v. Arizona

The Tigers continue their disturbing trend of being jumped for Bowl positioning by a team with a worse record.  The Wildcats return to San Diego  as the third place team from the Pac 10.

Hyundai Sun Bowl: North Carolina State v. California

The Sun Bowl has the option of taking the ACC Championship Game loser and I think they excercise that and nab NCSU.  Cal winds up here as the last Pac 10 bowl team.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina v. UConn

I think the Heels jump Maryland for this spot because of their proximity and history with the bowl but don't be surprised if the Terps end up here if the bowl believes that UNC fans won't want to go back to the same bowl again.  UConn is the third place team in the Big East and they finish here.

Texas Bowl: Illinois v. Texas Tech

Illinois keeps this prediction alive by beating Northwestern and Tech looks like it is well on its' way to 7 wins.  This prediction looks pretty solid unless Northwestern somehow jumps Illinois or Baylor somehow jumps Tech.

Music City Bowl: Georgia v. Maryland

I have the Bulldogs as the first of three 6-6 SEC teams to fillin the bottom glut of bowl games because of their passionate fan base and because they were at least semi-competitive in the SEC.  Maryland slides in as their opponent with the ACC's sixth bowl bid.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Kansas State v. Syracuse

The Pinstripe Bowl gets a coupe with Syracuse being available and snatches them up in order to make sure the stadium is filled.  KState gets the nod over Baylor simply because of prestige but again, this is a bit of a toss up.

TicketCity Bowl: Northwestern v. Baylor

Northwestern is still the last 7-5 team in my predictions because of their loss to Illinois.  Baylor still will likely not pass Kansas State for the Pinstripe Bowl in Yankee Stadium and I think they wind up here.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Tennessee v. UCF

I have the Volunteers beating Kentucky which likely gets them a bid here to play the Conference USA Champion Knights. 

BBVA Compass Bowl: Kentucky v. South Florida

Kentucky grabs the final SEC bowl bid with their 6-6 record after falling on the road to Tennessee.  This creates a really interesting matchup with South Florida who will be representing the Big East.

Maaco Bowl: Utah v. Western Michigan

This could be where Notre Dame lands but I don't see the Irish wanting a rematch with Utah.  Instead, the bowl grabs an at-large MAC team to fill the void left by the Pac 10.

uDrove Humanitarian Bowl: Temple v. Nevada

Hawaii will automatically go to the Hawaii bowl so the Wolfpack will represent the WAC here.  Temple gets sent here as the MAC's third bowl representative.

Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State v. Navy

This is going to be one of the most interesting bowl bids to watch.  Navy is garaunteed this bowl bid against the Mountain West conference (the bowl has the second choice of MWC teams).  If the teams were ranked by record right now, Air Force would be playing a rematch against the Midshipmen.  i think SDSU gets the nod because of their proximity to the bowl and to avoid the rematch but this could be extremely interesting.

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: BYU v. Clemson

Clemson gets the nod as the first 6-6 ACC team off the board because they have one of the best traveling fan bases in the country.  BYU also travels extremely well and they jump Air Force for the bowl in Birmingham.

Little Caesers Pizza Pizza Bowl: UTEP v. Northern Illinois

Just enough teams are bowl eligible for me to knock the 5-7 Boilermakers out of this slot.  UTEP is the last Conference USA team taken in the bowl order and they will fac the MAC champion Huskies.

Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl: Hawaii v. Tulsa

Hawaii is a lock for the first spot in the bowl but the other is a toss up.  The Hawai'i Bowl gets the second pick of Conference USA teams which could mean Tulsa, Southern Miss, Eastern Carolina, or even SMU.  It is really a guessing game until we see the results of next weeks games but I will go with Tulsa who I think will be in the Conference USA title game.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl: Army v. Southern Mississippi

The Armed Forced Bowl will have Army but can choose a team from either the Mountain West or Conference USA.  Since the Mountain West team would probably be Air Force I think the Armed Forces Bowl takes Southern Miss.

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force v. Fresno State

Air Force falls here because of the bowl complications spelled out above.  Fresno State is paired with them as the WAC's fourth, and last, bowl representative.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Florida International v. East Carolina

Sun Belt Champion versus the fifth pick from Conference USA, nothing too out of the ordinary here.

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Ohio v. Troy

Pretty cut and dried pick here as we see the second place team from the MAC face off against the second place team from the Sun Belt.

Beef O'Brady's Bowl: Louisville v. Louisiana-Monroe
I think the War Hawks and Cardinals both win this weekend making both of them bowl elidgible at 6-6.  This is an important bowl to watch since it currently is not garaunteed that either of its' partner conference will be able to provide a team.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame

 

This would be interesting since I don't see USC losing this weekend against the Irish.  That makes Notre Dame a 6-6 team and, while it is quite possible they could decide to stay home this year,  I think they end up here in one of the Pac 10 spots which is left open.  Georgia Tech represents the last ACC team taken in a bowl game.

Millitary Bowl: Toledo v Boston College

 

These are the  last two bowl elidgible teams.  Right now I have every bowl elidgible team making a postseason game with BC getting the 8th ACC slot and Toledo getting picked up from the MAC.