Week 4 Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama v. Oregon

AJ McCarron had his hand bandaged up against Arkansas and his health is a major storyline since it would be hard to see the Tide looking quite as dominant without him.  That being said, this team is so good that they could still get to the championship game without their starting quarterback and there isn't a more impressive team in the FBS.  USC's loss to Stanford should underscore how difficult the Pac 12 is this year but the Ducks are still in autopilot mode.  The Ducks haven't been challenged yet but that will change as they host a resurgent Arizona this weekend.

Rose Bowl: Nebraska v. Stanford

USC still has to play Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, UCLA, and Notre Dame.  Expecting them to get 10 wins on that schedule is unlikely when they already have a loss.  Stanford still has Oregon, UCLA, and Notre Dame but if they win the rest of the games on their schedule and pull an upset in one of those three games then the Cardinal will be back in the BCS.  The Huskers looked bad against UCLA but they still look better than Michigan or Michigan State.  Nebraska still has a manageable conference schedule and should be just fine getting to the Rose Bowl.

Sugar Bowl: Georgia v. Notre Dame

I have a feeling Florida is going to be a test for both UGA and LSU but the Tigers get the Gators on the road in addition to a trip to Texas A&M and a home game against Alabama.  I think the Dawgs end up here but it could be Florida or LSU depending on how things fall.  The Irish still have a tough schedule remaining but with USC faltering, getting Stanford at home, and Michigan looking pretty mediocre to start the season it hardly seems unreasonable to see Notre Dame getting 10 wins which makes them an automatic BCS team. 

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma v. Clemson

The Big XII hasn't really had any games that tell us how the conference is going to play out so I am sticking with the Sooners.  Kansas State, West Virginia, and Texas all have  shot here but we really have no idea how good any of these teams are.  Notre Dame would be the at large selection if any one else is the Big XII champion but they will have to go another direction to avoid a rematch with Oklahoma.  Clemson has Sammy Watkins back but they still have to travel to Florida State next week which will be a very tough test for the Tigers.  The rest of their tough games (NCSU, GT, VT, South Carolina) are at home though and it is very easy to see the Tigers finishing 11-1.

Orange Bowl: Florida State v. Louisville

Florida State really looks like a National Title contender so far but the real test is this week against Clemson.  If the Seminoles can beat the Tigers soundly you can bet they will be showing up in the National Title game on this list next week.  Louisville had a little scare against UNC but they looked dominant early and are really the only Big East team that looks like they are at least decent.  Rutgers could challenge them but frankly the Big East shouldn't have an automatic BCS bid anyway.

Capital One Bowl: Michigan State v. LSU

The Spartans looked downright bad this week but Notre Dame is a good team.  MSU still has a shot to win their division but I think they end up settling for an 8-4 record.  Still, with Purdue and Northwestern as the other teams in this tier I think the Capital One Bowl takes a shot on MSU who will have had more national exposure.  I have LSU here but, as I have already said, this could just as easily be Georgia or Florida.

Outback Bowl: Purdue v. Florida

The Boilermakers get the next pick since they haven't had a trip to the Outback Bowl recently.  Florida is the final team off of the SEC trio of top teams because I think they have the toughest non conference game left (at Florida State).  

Gator Bowl: Northwestern v. Tennessee

For the record, I originally put Northwestern in the Rose Bowl this week.  Then I looked at their schedule.  Nebraska is going to be a loss at home and tripe to the Michigan schools in back to back weeks are probably both losses. That puts them in the same middle as Purdue and Nebraska and I think that drops them here.  Their opponent is Tennessee who, despite losing to Florida, still looks good enough to get past banged up South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. 

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Michigan v. Texas Tech
This match up hasn't changed and, while Wisconsin could very reasonably be an option here, I still think this bowl is a lock for the Wolverines.  Texas Tech has quietly done a solid job of beating teams they should beat and is a dark horse team in the Big XII.  The Red Raiders have some flaws but I think they land here after a solid season.

Texas Bowl: Wisconsin v. TCU

Wisconsin looks downright bad this year and until they find an offensive identity it is hard to see them finishing the season with a record better than 7-5.  To add insult to injury, the Texas Bowl sets them up with a Rose Bowl rematch against the Horned Frogs.  TCU looks solid but I just don't think they are good enough to break into the top half of the Big XII. 

Ticket City Bowl: Minnesota v. Tulsa

Minnesota is not a great team but they should be good enough to get six wins.  I think an excited Minnesota which hasn't been to a bowl in a few years is more attractive at this point in the selection process than a six win Iowa team with a disappointed fan base.  Tulsa remains my Conference USA selection since I think the league will want one of their stronger conference members to match up against a team from the Big Ten.

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Iowa v. Ohio

Nothing has really changed with Iowa. They are still between five and seven wins and still need to prove themselves against a good team.  The tailback injuries make the situation even shakier so there really isn't a reason to change this match up.  Ohio is one of only three undefeated non-BCS teams and looks like the favorite to win the MAC.