Week Six Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama v. Oregon

No reason to change this now.  Alabama's box score against Ole Miss wasn't as eye opening as the route against Michigan but it was still a nice win.  Oregon continues to look bored in Pac 12 play and really will only be tested a couple more times this year.  These teams look like the de facto national title game participants more than anyone else at this point.

Rose Bowl: Nebraska v. Notre Dame

Near the end of the Nebraska game last night I got a text pointing out the Huskers certainly didn't look very impressive.  I agree, but who in the Big Ten does?  Nebraska might lose at Michigan State but they look like the most likely team to win the conference at this point.  I don't have a second Pac 12 team getting to double digit wins and while the Rose Bowl could take a 9-3 team from that conference, I think they go for the Irish with their replacement pick for Oregon.  Notre Dame hasn't played in the granddaddy of them all since 1925 and you can bet the this match up guarantees that this bowl game challenges the National Championship in television ratings.

 

Sugar Bowl: Georgia v. Texas

Georgia remains here despite their close call against Tennessee.  Bottom line is this team is just too good to not get 11 wins and could very well be undefeated before the SEC title game.  I still think they lose to Florida in Jacksonville but the Dawgs remain my pick for the Sugar Bowl.  The Big XII focus is on West Virginia right now but the real story was Texas going into Stillwater last night and beating the Cowboys.  If Texas can win one of the KSU-WVU-OU triad they should have no trouble getting ten wins.  I think they beat West Virginia on Saturday and they might even give the Sooners a run for their money.

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State v. Clemson

Kansas State is still in the catbird seat to win the Big XII and I think they can handle beating West Virginia and Texas at home.  Clemson had a bit of a scare in at Boston College this weekend but the Tigers only face two more teams on the road and they are Wake and Duke.  If Clemson can take care of business at home it will be the only real option left for the Fiesta Bowl since Notre Dame is off the board and there aren't any Pac 12 teams looking good enough to grab.

 

Orange Bowl: Florida State v. Louisville

Florida State got an ugly 13 point win on the road against a jacked up USF this weekend but the real test is next weekend in Raleigh.  If the Seminoles can take care of the Wolfpack on the road they will only have two tough contests away from Tallahassee left (Miami and Virginia Tech).  The ACC looks mediocre this year and I bet the Seminoles can get at least 10 wins on their schedule.  Louisville almost lost at Southern Miss but the game was in a monsoon.  I still think the Cardinals end up getting here but watch out for Rutgers and Cincinnati. 

 

Capital One Bowl: Michigan State v. Florida

I still think Michigan State is good enough to land here but Ohio State exposed some major weaknesses in their defense.  Teams that can effectively move the pocket with a mobile quarterback (Nebraska, Michigan, Northwestern) can find success against this Spartan D which could be a problem considering their offense is still a liability.  I am really on the Gator train this year and I think Florida has a legitimate shot at the SEC title.  Still,

Outback Bowl: Purdue v. South Carolina

South Carolina had a scare against Kentucky but I think they manage to find their way to Tampa by the end of the season based on the strength of that defense.  I have no read on Purdue right now but the Boilers face a far more manageable schedule than Wisconsin.  If Purdue beats Michigan this week then this will make more sense but right now this is a lot of guessing.  I think the Boilers win this weekend but don't be shocked if Purdue ends up somewhere else by the end of the year.

 

Gator Bowl: Wisconsin v. Texas A&M

I still don't see Wisconsin falling farther than this.  The Gator Bowl will pick them up and will match them with the best SEC name they can find (I still like the Aggies) so that they can compete with the higher selecting bowl games on New Years Day.  The Badgers still could win their division but their offense looked inept in the second half of their game against Nebraska and I think they will struggle against the Michigan State's and Ohio State's on their schedule.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Northwestern v. Oklahoma State
I am still pretty down on Michigan and so I am not going to move Northwestern from this spot.  If the Wolverines beat Purdue, the Wildcats will probably end up getting shifted down this list.  With the Big XII getting a second BCS bid I have the Pokes moving up to the Insight Bowl.  They hung close with Texas for a whole 60 minutes and remain a dangerous team in their conference despite having to start two freshman quarterbacks.

Texas Bowl: Michigan v. TCU

Same caveat as last week, Michigan looks like a 6-6 team right now and could potentially fare worse than that.  If they are available here I think Michigan is the team since how often is the Texas Bowl going to get a chance to host the Wolverines?  TCU is still my Big XII team here.

Ticket City Bowl: Minnesota v. Tulsa

I still think Minnesota can manage six wins.  The loss to Iowa was ugly but if the Gophers had had MarQueis Gray I think they probably end up winning that game.  Minnesota only needs two more wins the rest of the year to get to a bowl game and I think that, once they get their back their starting quarterback, they should be able to manage that.

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Western Kentucky v. Ohio

No change here.  I still think Western Kentucky gets an at large spot from the Sun Belt and Ohio is chosen here as the MAC champion.  I would have Iowa but I just don't see three more wins on their schedule.