Week 5 Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama v. Oregon

Oregon mad a huge statement against Arizona and, despite their difficult schedule, I think this Ducks squad really has a chance to run the table. Alabama remains the team in the catbird seat and it is unlikely that will change until they face their first real test at Tennessee.  Even then, there doesn't appear to be a team in the SEC West that looks capable of knocking off the Tide.

Rose Bowl: Nebraska v. Stanford

I feel more confident in this pick than last week but neither team really did anything this past week.  Nebraska annihilated Idaho State and Stanford had the week off.  Still, with the Big Ten continuing to struggle and USC still not doing enough to prove they can navigate the rest of their season with only a single loss, this looks like a safe pick.

Sugar Bowl: Georgia v. Clemson

The Gators and the Bulldogs continue to impress but LSU looks like they might be in some trouble this season.  Still, the only change in this pick from last week is swapping with Notre Dame (more on that in a bit).  The Tigers lost a tough game in Tallahassee but as long as they avoid a major upset they should be able to get 10 wins and a BCS at large bid.  It is also worth noting that you should watch Ohio and Louisiana Tech as both teams look like potential BCS busters.  

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State v. Notre Dame

A huge win in Norman for the Wildcats has them back in my BCS selection and that opens the door for the Fiesta Bowl to pair them with the Irish.  We still know very little about the Big XII (KU sucks, and nobody has really been tested yet outside of KSU and OU) so this pick is certainly not set in stone.  However, given KSU's history of strong play against Texas and the fact that they get Oklahoma State at home it is hard not to see the Wildcats as having the inside track at the conference title at this point.  Notre Dame took care of business against Michigan and with the Sooners loss there doesn't appear to be a game on the schedule in which the Irish don't at least have a fair shot to win.

Orange Bowl: Florida State v. Louisville

Florida State defeated Clemson but the also gave up 400+ yards of offense to the Tigers.  That may be a problem as they still have to face Virginia Tech, Miami, and Florida.  I think the Noles drop one of those games (my guess is Florida) which puts them out of the National TItle discussion.  They should still find their way to Miami though.  Louisville is still my pick but Rutgers is still a team to watch in this race.  If the Scarlet Knights can hang on they can steal the league title when they host Louisville on the last week of the season.

Capital One Bowl: Michigan State v. Florida

No change for Sparty but next Saturday is the start of conference play in the Big Ten which could mean some pretty seismic shifts in these projections during the next couple of weeks.  I am starting to like the Gators.  They have three tests left on their schedule (LSU at home, Georgia in Jacksonville, and FSU in Tallahassee) which are all in the state of Florida and they might just be good enough to be a dark horse national title contender. 

Outback Bowl: Purdue v. Tennessee

Who else do you pick?  Michigan and Wisconsin certainly haven't looked good this year.  I think it comes down to Northwestern and Purdue but the Outback Bowl takes the Boilers who haven't been to Tampa recently and might have a better record.  On the SEC side this basically comes down to Tennessee and South Carolina.  While I think Carolina has the better team, their injury issues make me think the Vols will end up nabbing this spot.

Gator Bowl: Wisconsin v. Texas A&M

Shenanigans here as Wisconsin jumps a Northwestern team with a clearly stronger resume.  The Gator Bowl has shown in the past few years that it cares more about getting names in its' bowl game (selecting Ohio State and Michigan the past two years) than the best teams so a jump here is actually pretty likely.  The Aggies also jump a league member, Mississippi State, to get here but I think the name recognition alone will help the Gator Bowl in their quest to challenge the Outback and Capital One Bowl for ratings.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Northwestern v. West Virginia
I think the BWWs Bowl would consider selecting Michigan over Northwestern here but after a lopsided match up last year I think they try to get two teams with similar records.  Northwestern should be an 8-9 win team this year (as opposed to 6-7 wins for Michigan) and I think that makes them a reasonable choice to go against the Mountaineers.

Texas Bowl: Michigan v. TCU

The Wolverines could hardly score against Notre Dame and the Wolverines are now facing down a conference schedule that features three likely losses (Nebraska, Michigan State, Ohio State) and a slew of potential upsets.  I think this is a six win team but it wouldn't shock me if Michigan failed to even get to that point.  TCU had an impressive win over Virginia this weekend but I still don't see them going higher than this.

Ticket City Bowl: Minnesota v. Tulsa

No change here.  Six wins for the Gophers and a bowl game for the first time in years.  Tulsa is still my pick but the caveat of Conference USA manipulating the teams still applies.  This may not even be a team from Conference USA as the league looks like it might have a lot of trouble filling its bowl slots this year.

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Western Kentucky v. Ohio

The Hilltoppers had an impressive win this weekend, beating Southern Miss 42-17.  I think they are selected as an at large Sun Belt team to face MAC champion Ohio here.  Ohio has looked good so far but the rest of the MAC has also done some solid work out of conference.  The league is likely the best of the non-AQ conferences and that depth might cost Ohio a shot at going undefeated and playing in the BCS.