Week 5 Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:



1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: LSU v. Oklahoma

I finally got the new logo in place.  LSU and Oklahoma both rolled over inferior opponents (Kentucky and Ball State respectively) so there isn't much reason to change things.  The schedule kicks up for both teams next week as Oklahoma squares off against undefeated Texas in the Red River Shootout and the Tigers take on the Florida Gators in Death Valley.  These teams are locked here until they show some weakness so next week might see a new National Title matchup.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin v. Stanford

This one is still locked in.  Wisconsin looked every bit as good as advertised against the Huskers and Stanford rolled against UCLA coming out of their bye week.  The Badgers are off next week and then host Indiana so they are here (unless Oklahoma losses) for the forseeable future.  The Cardinal faces Colorado and Washington State in the next two weeks so barring an incredible upset this one is set in stone.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Boise State

Alabama was incredibly impressive in defeating the Gators in the Swamp this past weekend.  The Crimson Tide is still stuck here however as I have them losing to LSU when the two meet in Tuscaloosa on the first weekend of November.  That matchup looks more and more like it will determine which SEC team will represent the conference in the National Title game.  Boise State rolled up a 20 point victory over Nevada at home and still looks like they will finish undefeated.

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon v. Illinois

Arizona State struggling at home against a winless Oregon State is making me cold on them.  The Ducks were off this week but I think they will quietly put together a really good season and that lands them here.  Oklahoma State was my initial pick to face the Ducks but I just don't trust any of the undefeated Big XII teams right now except Oklahoma.  Illinois has hardly looked impressive but they have a very soft schedule (no Iowa, Michigan State, or Nebraska) and a Big Ten team with 10 wins would be very enticing for the bowls.  The Illini are here this week but this at large spot is wide open going forward.

Orange Bowl: West Virginia v. Clemson

A week after I switch this to WVU and Clemson and I feel very much like the right call was made.  Clemson looked every bit of a strong, ACC contender in blasting the Hokies by 20 in Blacksburg.  West Virginia dropped 55 on Bowling Green but, more importantly, South Florida was pantsed by the Pittsburgh.  The Mountaineers still have the Bulls and Panthers on their schedule and Clemson needs to be wary of Georgia Tech, the ACC's other undefeated team, but right now they look like the class of their respective conferences.

Capital One Bowl: Nebraska v. Florida

The Huskers still have a pretty decent shot at a BCS at-large berth but I am guessing they lose at least two more games after seeing their melt down in Madison.  If their offense can get it together and they put on a convincing show against the Buckeyes next week they might just sneak back up.  Florida was embarassed at home by Alabama but the rest of the league outside of the top two is a coin flip right now.  I am not buying Georgia yet and South Carolina lost at home to Auburn so I think the Gators end up here.

Outback Bowl: Michigan State v. South Carolina

I am not going to fawn over Sparty because they beat a bad Buckeye squad.  I still think they need to prove themselves against some good teams but right now Sparty looks to have a decent shot at this slot and I am inclined to think they make it here.  South Carolina is a guess but, as I said above, I am just not buying Georgia right now so the I will call for the Gamecocks to return to Tampa.

Insight Bowl: Michigan v. Kansas State

Texas A&M dropped another heartbreaker and I think that moves the Wildcats up into what was the Aggies spot.  KState had a close win over Baylor at home this week and will likely be ranked, but I think they stumble a couple times in the nine game conference schedule.  I think Michigan can get to 8 wins which would tie them with where I have Iowa.  I think the Insight Bowl reps would rather take the Wolverines while they can still get them than take the Hawkeyes for a second straight year.

Gator Bowl: Iowa v. Georgia

I am calling for the Hawkeyes to finish in the 8-4 and 7-5 range which might be conservative but I feel this is the right course for the time being.  Georgia had a nice win over Mississippi State this past weekend but the Bulldogs still have to get by dangerous Tennessee and Florida teams this month and also have some intriguing matchups against Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Georgia Tech left on the season.  If the Bulldogs can take care ofthe Vols in Knoxville this weekend I think they will start to climb a little bit.

Texas Bowl: Ohio State v. Baylor

The Buckeye offense is horrible but they will get a lift as the four player who were suspended and didn't enter the supplemental draft return this week.  Unfortunatly, it is just in time for a trip to Lincoln to face a pissed off Nebraska team that will be trying to bring the nastiness back to its' defense.  Baylor lost to Kansas State but should be able to get to bowl elidgibility if they take care of Iowa State in Waco this weekend.

Ticket City Bowl: Penn State v. SMU

SMU got a nice win over TCU on the road this weekend and they are the favorites to win this bid for Conference USA.  Penn State could jump Ohio State but right now the Nittany Lions look pretty awful on offense themselves.  I am going to keep them here but a good showing against Iowa next week would move them up.

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Northwestern v. Ohio

Dan Persa was impressive when he was in the game against Illinois Saturday but was injured again and his healthy is a major question mark going forward.  If he can't start consistently I don't think the Wildcats will be able to capitalize on their relatively light schedule and senior leadership.  These last three bowl games could potentially change drastically in the next few weeks, as either Penn State, Ohio State, or both look like they might not quite make it to 6 wins so the Wildcats could move up pretty quickly since I am more convinced they can hit the 6-7 win mark than the others.