Week 7 Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: LSU v. Oklahoma

LSU and Oklahoma continue to chug along and I still don't see either team losing.  Alabama will be a stiff test and Oklahoma State will provide an interesting rivalry matchup, but the Sooners and Tigers have looked every bit as good as I thought they would when I picked them to end up here during the summer radio show.  Until we see something different, these two are going to stand pat.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin v. Stanford

With Oregon being hit by a rash of injuries and the Big Ten looking very down this year, these two teams seem to be very likely to end up here.  They do have challenges this week however as Stanford hosts a very tough Washington team and Wisconsin travels to East Lansing to take on the top ranked Michigan State defense. 

Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Boise State

Same old same old here as well.  This season has really lacked major upsets so far and unless some upsets happen this one looks pretty set.  Boise State's lack of schedule strength will prevent them from getting to the National Title game (as it should) and the SEC runner up is as an obvious at-large selection. 

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon v. Nebraska

I seriousl considered swapping Nebraska for Michigan State but I just don't trust the Spartan offense.  I have MSU winning the Legends but a loss to Wisconsin in the Championship Game opens the door for Nebraska and their massive traveling fanbase to jump in.  Oregon is an iffy pick here but, despite a slew of injuries, they still managed to beat a very good Arizona State team soundly.  I think their brand recognition gets them selected over a Big XII team like Oklahoma State who wouldn't generate as many television viewers.

Orange Bowl: West Virginia v. Clemson

This pick was further solidified with Georgia Tech falling to UVA and South Florida falling to UConn.  With the biggest contenders falling by the wayside, this matchup looks all but inevitable.  Clemson still has a to face the Ramblin Wreck in a couple weeks and West Virginia will be tested in tough matchups against Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and South Florida who all have plenty of talent to challenge the Mountaineers but right now fans of these teams could probably start shopping for hotel rooms on South Beach.

Capital One Bowl: Michigan State v. South Carolina

South Carolina is a lock here if they win the SEC East (obviously unless they win the SEC Championship) since the toughest teams in their division are already past them.  The Big Ten team is very up in the air.  On one hand, if MSU does win the division they would be a prime fit here if they were passed by Nebraska.  However, MSU's showing here last season and the probability of teams like Penn State and Michigan having similar records mean Sparty could get bumped down even further.  Right now I think Michigan State ends up here but this is not so much in the realm of records (where I think MSU will be more than fine) but in the realm of bowl politics which are difficult to project.

Outback Bowl: Michigan v. Georgia

With MSU and Nebraska off the board I have the Outback Bowl picking between Penn State and Michigan.  The Nittany Lions were here last year and play a less mesmerizing style of football so I think the Wolverines end up heading to Tampa.  Georgia looks like the second best team from the East with Florida struggling so I think the Bulldogs bounce back from their earlier struggles and wind up here.

Insight Bowl: Penn State v. Texas

Penn State ends up here and the Insight Bowl comes away as the biggest winners in terms of matchup.  Penn State falls into their lapsandthey are left to choose between Texas and Kansas State.  While I think the Wildcats might have a better record (including a possible win over Texas), this is must watch television with Joe Paterno and Mack Brown facing off on opposite sidelines.  Two very strong traveling fanbases and a ratings bonanza makes this a no brainer for the bowl executives.

Gator Bowl: Ohio State v. Florida

The win this week puts the Buckeyes on track for at least six and probably seven wins on the season.  I think there is some question as to whether the administration chooses to go to a bowl game or not since it is very probable that Ohio State could do what Notre Dame did a few years ago and focus on hiring a new, big time head coach instead.  Florida and Tennessee could both fit here but I think the Gators provide the most intriguing matchup and their head to head win over the Vols puts them here.

Texas Bowl: Illinois v. Baylor

This should look eerily familiar.  I have Kansas State in the Holiday Bowl so that leaves Texas Tech, Missouri, and the Bears as potential teams here.  I am not convinced Tech will get to bowl elidgibility and Missouri doesn't travel well, is not getting as much hype, and might have a worse record than Baylor.  So with the Heisman trophy candidate's team in place the onus is on the Big Ten.  Illinois has an inside track on 8 wins if they can take care of buisness at Purdue this weekend but even with the upset I am not convinced Iowa or Purdue is getting seven wins yet.  That means that this will be a rematch of last season's game where the Illini handily topped the Bears.

Ticket City Bowl: Iowa v. Florida International

Couple things here.  First I am looking at the schedule and if Iowa wins their next two games (v. Indiana, at Minnesota) the Hawkeyes will be bowl elidgible.  I am not ready to garauntee anything beyond that with this team's defense being very shaky so that lands them here.  I don't think Conference USA will have enough bowl elidgible teams to fill this slot so they will look to the Sun Belt to fill this slot.  FIU is getting back on track after a hiccup a couple weeks ago and I think they are the choice to fill this open slot.

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Troy v. Temple

I am not sold on Purdue yet but they could find themselves here with an upset or two.  That leaves Troy as an at large Sun Belt team facing Temple, the MAC Champions.  The Pizza Bowl doesn't have toselect the champion so Temple may be left out a second straight year but I think Temple gets enough wins to convince the folks in Detroit to take a chance on the Owls.