Week 6 Bowl Projections

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:
1) National Championship
2) National Championship
3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick
4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick
5) Fiesta Bowl
6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: LSU v. Oklahoma

How could I change this after theweek these two schools had?  LSU and Oklahoma cominated their respective rivals and both looked worthy of the national title hype they are getting.  Alabama will have something to say about this in the end and Wisconsin lurks if OU should falter, but right now it appears these two squads are on a collision course for the National Championship.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin v. Stanford

Still nothing changes as the Badgers were off this week and the Cardinal destroyed Colorado.  Oregon is the only team that looks like it has the ability to knock one of these teams down so unless they can upset Stanford on the road or the Badgers move into the National Title Game this one is pretty much set in stone.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Boise State

Alabama is simply lurking in the background, waiting for their matchup with the Tigers in a few weeks.  I still think LSU is the better team but the Crimson Tide will get a nice consolation opponent in Boise State.  Alabama will only need to point to their last trip to the Sugar Bowl as to how tough these non-AQs can be so the Crimson Tide had better be read for a shootout in New Orleans.

Fiesta Bowl: Oregon v. Nebraska
Hear me out on this.  Comparing schedules with the other contenders for this spot (Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State) and then looking at how these teams have performed so far, I have to give this to the Huskers.  Nebraska showed signs of life against Ohio State  and only Michigan State and Penn State have that quality of defense left on their schedule.  If the Huskers can use the bye week and the trip to Minneapolis in the next two weeks to get their defensive swagger back they are very likely to win out.

Orange Bowl: West Virginia v. Clemson

Still no change here.  The Tigers and Mountaineers both had solid wins this weekend.  West Virginia still has to face Pitt and South Florida and Clemson still has to fend off a surging Georgia Tech, but right now these two teams look like the class of their respective conferences which means they will meet for what should be an intriguing game in the Orange Bowl.

Capital One Bowl: Michigan v. South Carolina

Thenext three Big Ten selections are allpretty much interchangeable but right now I think this is how the finish.  Michigan showed some give against Northwestern but has a quick turnaround as the face Sparty next week.  A win in East Lansing would see me swapping them and Nebraska as Michigan only has the Huskers and Buckeyes left on their schedule in terms of quality opponents.  South Carolina looked impressive this weekend and still has a chance to make some noise.  Their only real competition in the East appears to be Georgia and they alread won the head to head so I think the Gamecocks are in prime position for a second straight trip to the SEC title game.

Outback Bowl: Illinois v. Georgia

The Illini land here pretty much by default.  Michigan State's loss to ND has put them out of sight and out of mind and I think, with both teams having identical records, the Outback selects the team that is more excited to be here, not the team that wanted more.  The Bulldogs also land here sort of by default.  Tennessee and Florida don't look very good right now so UGA looks like the de facto number two team from the SEC East.

Insight Bowl: Michigan State v. Kansas State

People may think I am putting down Sparty but I think they are a good team who can move much higher with a win this week.  Kansas State is not a great football team (well coached though) and while people ma get excited about their undefeated record, I still think they lose a minnimum of three games this season.  That plues a small fanbase plus low television ratings gets them passed over a couple times by the bowls who pick teams who will generate more interest for their games.

Gator Bowl: Penn State v. Florida

Penn State proved its' defense was for real in a drubbing of Iowa this weekend but I am still hesitant.  The offense still looks mediocre and Ohio State, Nebraska, Illinois, and Wisconsin are still on the schedule.  Right now I think they are trapped behind the above teams but could move up with an upset.  Florida is here for lack of a better option at this point.  Tennessee and Kentucky look pretty bad and the only SEC West teams left (after Auburn and Arkansas are both selected in the Chick fil-a and Cotton bowls) are the two Mississippi teams.  So for now, Gators, but this is a developing situation that will remain pretty fluid.

Texas Bowl: Ohio State v. Baylor

Ohio State showed signs of life against Nebraska.  Only time will tell if this team is starting to get it together or if that game in Lincoln was a last gasp.  Baylor had a nice win over Iowa State in Waco but faces the Aggies on the road this week.  The Bears appear to be a six or seven win squad right now so I will keep them here but the Big XII is going to get shook up in the next few weeks as conference play starts to seperate teams out.

Ticket City Bowl: Northwestern v. SMU

SMU is still here this week and will be for the forseeable future.  Northwestern looked lost against Michigan but with Dan Persa back they have a good shot at getting up to bowl elidgibility. 

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Troy v. Ohio

I don't have the Big Ten fielding another bowl elidgible team so this is going to be an open bid.  Troy and Ohio is as interesting a matchup as any so I threw that there but this is a fairly randompick rightnowsince the SBC and MAC are difficult to read at the moment.