Week 8 Bowl Projections (Expanded)

Every week I will be putting up an updated bowl prediction out there. It will include all the BCS and Big Ten bowls. Every few weeks I will include all of the bowls. The selection order for the BCS is:

1) National Championship

2) National Championship

3) Bowl that lost a representative to the first NC pick

4) Bowl that lost a representative to the second NC pick

5) Fiesta Bowl

6) Sugar Bowl
7) Orange Bowl

BCS National Championship Game: LSU v. Stanford

The LSU pick remains the same.  Even without Tyrann Mathieu they clobbered Auburn and just using the eyeball test, this LSU team is the best team in college football. The winner of the massive showdown between the Tigers and Tide in Tuscaloosa next weekend will be the definitive answer to who seals this spot.  Stanford is an extremely talented and well rounded team and I think they are the most likely team (outside of the two SEC West squads) to finish with their undefeated record intact.  They still have tough matchups at USC and against Oregon, but the Cardinal are my pick right now.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin v. Oregon

The Badgers had a bad loss this weekend but Sconi just needs to win out to get a second shot at the Spartans in the inaugural Big Ten Title game.  The Badgers are still favorites to blow through their division and I think they do it to secure a spot in the Rose Bowl.  Oregon fills in as the runner up from the Pac 12 and is the most likely at large team for this spot since you can bet the Rose Bowl will want to maintain their

Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. Boise State

The loser of the matchup in two weeks in the SEC West is going to get penned in here baring a major upset.  Boise State would need a major boost from the voters to jump even a one loss Big XII Champion for the second National Title slot but keep an eye on them because they could sneak in there if Stanford falls.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma v. Michigan State

The Cowboys and Wildcats may balk at this but it shouldn't be that surprising.  KState has been outgained almost every week (think of it as winning a bunch of baseball games despite being out hit) and Oklahoma State is facing injury problems in their receiving corps.  Both teams still have to play each other and the Sooners still this season.  Even if Oklahoma State beats KSU and finishes 11-1 (KSU still has A&M and Texas so their path is significantly tougher than OSU's) they have to hope that the Fiesta Bowl would want Boise State over a Big Ten team and I think the Fiesta picks up a very hyped MSU team over Boise State.  If that isn't the case, it will likely be the Cowboys in the Sugar Bowl against the Tide.

Orange Bowl: West Virginia v. Clemson

I think the Tigers slip up somewhere on the road but they are an interesting team to watch this season and have a small shot at getting to the National Title.  The Big East is a mess right now but ultimately I think West Virginia is the league's best team and will get the conference's automatic BCS bid.  Also watch out for Cincinnati and Rutgers as both teams are lurking and could surprise the Mountaineers.

Capital One Bowl: Penn State v. Arkansas

The Nittany Lions still have a lot to get through including matchups with Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin, but I think they have a great shot at finishing with 9 or 10 wins and that places them here.  This is a team with a lot of momentum right now and I think they parlay that into a second place finish in the Leaders.  With a lot of other SEC teams, particularly those in the East, looking down the Hogs have a pretty good shot at landing in this spot.  With only one likely loss (LSU) left on the schedule.

Outback Bowl: Nebraska v. South Carolina

Nebraska still has to face Michigan State, Michigan, Penn State, and Iowa this season and I think they finish right with the Nittany Lions but a head to head loss in Happy Valley keeps them from going to the Capital One Bowl.  Still, the Outback Bowl is a solid finish for the Huskers and they will go against the SEC East champs in South Carolina.

Insight Bowl: Michigan v. Texas

A year after the highest rated and attended Insight Bowl ever the boys in Tempe have to be salivating at this matchup.  The Wolverines are in great position right now and I think this team has the horses to keep them from completely wilting down the stretch as they have the past couple of years.  Texas jumps Kansas State because of a head to head win and a bigger traveling fanbase and massive TV ratings.

Gator Bowl: Iowa v. Florida

This spot is wide open from the Big Ten side and it is very tough to tell right now.who it is going to be.  Right now I will say Iowa who was in the slot a lot this year since the Hawkeyes have some potential for upsets with the two Michigan schools coming to Kinnick but they need to win on the road and that ending kick at Purdue and at Nebraska is going to be very tough for the Hawkeyes.  Florida is behind Georgia right now in my mind but the Gators and Bulldogs could swap for this spot.

Texas Bowl: Ohio State v. Texas Tech

The Buckeyes land here as they just make bowl elidgibility but there is a good chance they could forgo a bowl game and instead focus on landing a top flight coach (ala Notre Dame).  Texas Tech had a signature win over Oklahoma last weekend and I think that will help their stock going forward but I still think they will drop a couple games against their Big XII opponents in the coming weeks to fall below the upper group in the conference bowl pecking order.

Ticket City Bowl: Illinois v. MissouriI think the Big XII will have one extra team available to fill the void left here by the lack of an extra Conference USA team.  Missouri has the choice of either playing in Texas against their old rival or in Washington D.C. in the Military Bowl against one of the lower level ACC schools and I think they go with the Illini to generate some interest with their fan base and to get some more exposure in Texas which has been a major recruiting ground for the Tigers.  I have the Illini falling pretty hard in the coming weeks with matchups against Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State pushing them down here.

Little Caeser's Pizza Pizza Bowl: Purdue v. Toledo

Purdue was the last team to make it to the Pizza Pizza Bowl (formerly the Motor City Bowl) and they only need one more upset to get back there this year.  Toledo is my projected MAC winner and, although they were here last year, I think they get chosen as the conference representative.  Temple also has a very good shot at this spot but the Rockets beat the Owls in Philladelphia already tthis season so I am going with Toledo right now.

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Auburn v. Oklahoma State

The Tigers have shown significant improvement this year and if they can take care of Georgia in the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry then they will get to follow up their National Championship run with a trip to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas which is much better than anyone predicted for them going into this season.  Oklahoma State is the clear cut number two team in the Big XII despite their injuries and I have them landing here after a 10-2 finish.

Chick Fil-A Bowl: Georgia v. Virginia Tech

Georgia needs to beat Florida to end up here and could go higher if they take care of Auburn but I will call for the split and put them in the middle for now.  The Chick-fil-A would love to get the Bulldogs and their sizeable Atlanta fanbase to pack the stands and pitting them against the solid traveling Virginia Tech fanbase would create an intriguing matchup that would drive up television ratings. 

Valero Alamo Bowl: Texas A&M v. Arizona State

The Aggies will have to fight it out with the Longhorns to get this spot but I think they win this year's tilt and are selected by the Alamo Bowl over Texas because of a stronger record and a head to head win.  Arizona State is the clear favorite to win the Pac 12 South and I think the Alamo Bowl will take them because of their proximity to San Antonio over a Washington team which could end up with a similar record but would also have much farther to travel.

Champs Sports Bowl: Notre Dame v. Florida State

There are a lot of options that the Champs Sports Bowl could use with this pick, but I think they pick up Notre Dame in lieu of a Big East team and then tap the Seminoles to generate excitement of what was once a rivalry between the two schools.  There is a chance Miami could be here as well but I think the Seminoles will get the nod since the Hurricanes played the Irish in a bowl game last year. 

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Miami v. Utah

A very intriguing bowl spot as the Hurricanes are the logical pick but were here last season.  Still, despite their poor traveling fanbase the Canes will drive up TV ratings and none of the remaining ACC  teams travel significantly better to make a different.  I have Utah limping in here just barely meeting bowl elidgibility but the Utes will travel better than California, the only other bowl elidgible team I have from the Pac 12, and the Sun Bowl will want someone who will drive up interest and ticket sales leading them to jump the Utes over the Bears.

Holiday Bowl: Washington v. Kansas State

Another year another Holiday Bowl for Washington.  I considered putting Cal here but I just think the discrepency between the two team's records will be too great.  Washington gets pitted against Kansas State who will probably go into the like they did the Alamo Bowl a decade ago, feeling they were cheated by the bowls who picked teams with similar records over them.  Still they are going to really have to put on a show to jump in these ratings since the Wildcats don't bring much in terms of traveling fanbase and TV ratings.

Belk Bowl: Wake Forest v. Cincinnati

The Demon Deacons get picked here since I believe their ACC record will be solid and they will travel a little better than Georgia Tech because they haven't been to a bowl game in a while.  Cincinnati is actually the second place team in my projected Big East but I am picking them here because of Notre Dame taking the Champs Sports Bowl.  Still, this is a really interesting matchup for the college football junkie and could generate a lot of non-partisan fans.

Music City Bowl: Tennessee v. Georgia Tech

The Music City bowl would love to get the Volunteers and their local fan base back this year and I think they snap up Tennessee as quickly as possible. The Georgia Tech pick is shaky since the Jackets are very poor when it comes to traveling but I think having the Volunteer fanbase to counter balance that is going to be enough for the Music City Bowl to pull the trigger on what could be a very interesting TV matchup.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Baylor v. Rutgers

I think both Baylor and Missouri manage to get to six wins leaving it up to the Pinstripe Bowl to pick which team it wants in Yankee Stadium.  With both Rutgers and Syracuse available the bowl has it's choice of hometown teams and grabs the Scarlet Knights who have a larger fanbase over the Orange who were there last year.  With a local team to fill the stands I think the Pinstripe Bowl is less worried about selling tickets and more concerned with TV revenue, prompting it to grab the Bears and Heisman hopeful Robert Griffin III.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Mississippi State v. Southern Mississippi

Even with the Commodores still available I think the Liberty Bowl goes with the Bullgogs in an effort to make sure that the stadium is filled.  I have Southern Miss as the Conference USA champion still which some people might balk at because of Houston's unbeaten record but I think when the two play in the championship game the Golden Eagles will shut down the Cougars just like they shut down SMU this past Saturday.

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: Virginia v. Air Force

It has been an up and down season for the Cavaliers but I think they manage to get bowl elidgible and that should make them a tempting target since it will be their first bowl game since the 2007  Gator Bowl.  They are matched up with the third non-BCS selection from the Mountain West which I think will be the Air Force Academy.  Air Force may not be sexy to bring in for a second straight year but the only other team I have elidgible from the Mountain West would be a 6-6 Wyoming which would kill television ratings.

Maaco Bowl Las Vegas: California v. TCU

A somewhat interesting matchup as the Maaco Bowl tabs the defending Rose Bowl champs to take on the Golden Bears which the bowl is more or less obligated to select as the last Pac 12 team.  San Diego State is a possibility here as is Air Force but TCU alreadyhas head to head victories over thsose squads so I think they end up as the selection here.

Millitary Bowl: North Carolina v. Marshall

With both UNC and NCState both still available I think the Millitary bowl goes with UNC in hopes of driving up television ratings.  Marshall is the last Conference USA team available and becomes the automatic opponent in this game.  The Thundering Herd should bring a decent fanbase so grabbing UNC to boost TV ratings makes sense.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: North Carolina State v. South Florida

Both USF and NCSU are without bowl bids but luckily neither the WAC nor the Pac 12 will be able to fill their commitments here.  The Keaft Fight Hunger Bowl lucks into a very intriguing bowl matchup even though the fact that both squads are on the other side of the country may mean a sparsly attended event. 

Poinsettia Bowl: Nevada v. San Diego State

This is pretty cut and dried right now as the WAC champion will take on the third selection from the MWC.  This sets up pretty well if everything stays scratch with the standings as I have predicted as a Nevada SDSU matchup would be pretty solid for ratings and attendance.

New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming v. Northern Illinois

The Cowboys are  the only Western time zone team left and Northern Illinois has one of the larger fanbases of the remaining pool of teams to fill the two at large selections left by the lack of a WAC and Pac 12 team to fill this bowl. 

Armed Forces Bowl: Brigham Young v. SMU

BYU is a lock for this bowl and so the real question is who they will be playing.  I have them taking on SMU who is easily the third best team in Conference USA.  The Mustangs and June Jones' offense going against the Cougars would be a small coupe for the Armed Forces Bowl in terms of television appeal as many college football junkies might be interested in this matchup.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii v. Houston

I have the Warriors getting bowl elidgible and that means they will be playing in Honolulu on Christmas Eve.  Houston is my number two pick in Conference USA so that will send them to face the Warriors on the island.  Case Keenum has the Cougars off to a fast start but, as previously mentioned, I think Southern Miss takes them out in the Conference Championship Game.

BBVA Compass Bowl: Vanderbilt v. Syracuse

Vanderbilt sneaks in with six wins as the last bowl elidgbile team and the Compass Bowl has a choice to make.  They have Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and USF left on the board from the Big East but Pittsburgh was there last year, Syracuse is very far away, and USF will have the worst record of the three.  I think they go with the Orange and hope that the matchup generates some television ratings interest which they can sell to advertisers.

Beef O'Brady's Bowl: Pittsburgh v. TulsaWith the last scheduled pick from the Big East the Beef O'Brady's bowl actually has a choice between Pitt and USF.  I think they see they potential of matching up a Tulsa squad which is the clear choice from Conference USA and their former head coach and go with that as their selection. 

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Arkansas State v. East Carloina

The Red Wolves are on pace to be the champions of the Sun Belt Conference and that would give them an inside track to this spot.  The New Orleans Bowl can choose between East Carolina and Marshall as their representative from Conference USA but tI think they go with the Pirates who have a decent fanbase, play an exciting brand of football, and are somewhat closer to New Orleans than Huntington.

Go Daddy.com Bowl: Temple v. Louisiana

This is a bit of an upset but I think these two teams would generate some headlines for a bowl which was not very watched last season.  Temple is the second best team in the MAC and, while they have a very small fanbase, this would be Louisiana's first bowl game and Temple's first since the 2009 Eagle Bank Bowl (fourth overall).  I think both fanbases would be energized and this would be an interesting matchup that a lot of the die hard college football fans would tune into.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Eastern Michigan v. Fresno StateThis is a toss up but Fresno State is the likely WAC team since they are the last bowl elidgible team I have from that league.  I tabbed Eastern Michigan as the at-large selection since it would be their first bowl game since 1987 and the selection could generate some interest in the Detroit area where there is still some solid support for the once moribound program.